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cover of episode Final Updates to the Biden Chip Controls; Peak Tough on China?; PLA and CEWC Speculation; More Trump Questions than Answers in Beijing

Final Updates to the Biden Chip Controls; Peak Tough on China?; PLA and CEWC Speculation; More Trump Questions than Answers in Beijing

2024/12/4
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Sharp China with Bill Bishop

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Andrew Sharp: 我认为,美国政府在限制中国先进计算能力方面行动迟缓,未能充分利用其战略优势,这在长期国家安全方面至关重要。拜登政府在芯片控制问题上领导不力,未能做出艰难的抉择以维护美国国家安全利益。 对芯片控制措施的批评忽略了行业游说对政策实施的影响,这使得相关辩论缺乏客观性。最终,美国对华芯片控制措施的力度已经减弱,行业游说力量强大,导致政策效果大打折扣。 美国政府未能有效地利用其在芯片产业中的优势地位,来限制中国在先进计算硬件方面的进步。 在对华芯片控制措施方面,美国政府的行动迟缓,未能充分利用其战略优势,这在长期国家安全方面至关重要。 Bill Bishop: 美国对华芯片控制措施新规实际效果弱于预期,未能获得日韩荷等国的充分合作,导致美国企业失去市场份额。美国已度过对华强硬政策的高峰期,最新的芯片控制措施以及TikTok禁令都体现了这一点。拜登政府对华芯片控制措施的执行方式最终将受到历史的负面评价。 中国限制出口关键矿物是对日韩荷等国未充分配合美国芯片控制措施的警告,也表明其不愿被美国及其盟友随意摆布。中国不会因为美国改变芯片控制政策而改变其发展自主半导体产业的轨迹。 由于行业游说力量强大,美国对华芯片控制措施的力度已经减弱。 中国对美国限制出口镓、锗、锑等关键矿物,是对美国及其盟友的警告,也可能加速去中国化进程。 Gregory Allen: 美国对华芯片控制措施力度不足,存在大量漏洞,导致付出高昂代价却收效甚微。

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Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should’ve been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok’s new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, reports (and denials) that Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, and thoughts on the way into the CEWC after November comes and goes without a public announcement of a Politburo meeting. At the end: Trump threatens 100% tariffs over a BRICS currency that does not yet exist, Beijing continues to guess at Trump’s objectives with tariff policy, the latest on the US telecommunications hack, and good news for unfairly maligned grandmothers in the PRC.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

No mention of November Politburo meeting; US updates chip controls; Xi on the BRI; Lai in Hawaii; Miao Hua; US-China prisoner swap — Sinocism)

CEWC; Reactions to chip controls; Studying Xi Thought on Culture — Sinocism)

Commerce Strengthens Export Controls to Restrict China’s Capability to Produce Advanced Semiconductors for Military Applications — Bureau of Industry and Security)

Biden tightens tech controls on China as clock ticks down — Washington Post)

Biden’s Final Export Control Salvo Misfires — China Talk)

The True Impact of Allied Export Controls on the U.S. and Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Industries — CSIS)

How TikTok’s Trump Whisperer Changed Minds in Washington — Wall Street Journal)

High-ranking military official in China suspended and placed under investigation — AP)

China’s defence minister placed under investigation for corruption — Financial Times)

China probes top officer discipline ‘violations’ — Financial Times)

China's Top Leaders to Meet to Discuss Stimulus Plans, Economic Targets for 2025 — Bloomberg)

Trump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar — BBC)

Faced with Trump’s Tariff Outburst, Beijing is Looking For a Way In — Wall Street Journal)

Emerging Details of Chinese Hack Leave U.S. Officials Increasingly Concerned — New York Times)

China Tells Drama Creators: No More Evil Grandmothers — Sixth Tone)