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cover of episode (Preview) CEWC and Bleak Economic Data; Naval Exercises Around Taiwan; New Reporting on Chip Controls; Trump’s Standing Invitation to Xi

(Preview) CEWC and Bleak Economic Data; Naval Exercises Around Taiwan; New Reporting on Chip Controls; Trump’s Standing Invitation to Xi

2024/12/18
logo of podcast Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Sharp China with Bill Bishop

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Andrew Sharp:我认为特朗普邀请习近平参加就职典礼的举动,可能并非出于真心实意,而更像是一种政治策略,旨在提升自身的曝光度和影响力,以此来吸引公众的注意力,并不一定真的期望习近平能够出席。这是一种利用政治事件来达到自身目的的策略。特朗普此举也可能是一种试探,看看中国方面的反应,为未来中美关系的走向探路。 此外,特朗普对TikTok的态度前后矛盾,既表达了对TikTok的喜爱,又暗示了对TikTok立法采取行动的可能性,这反映出其决策过程中的不确定性和多变性。这种不确定性也体现在他对华政策上,既有合作的意愿,也有对抗的倾向,这使得预测其最终对华政策走向变得困难。 总而言之,特朗普的言行举止充满了不确定性,难以捉摸,这使得外界难以预测其未来对华政策的具体走向。 Bill Bishop:特朗普政府内部对华政策存在多种观点,一些人主张与中国达成广泛协议,而另一些人则专注于减少对中国的依赖,这使得预测其最终对华政策走向变得困难。 特朗普喜欢让手下的人互相争斗,然后自己再做决定,这种管理方式使得其决策过程更加难以预测。 特朗普邀请习近平参加就职典礼,可能是一种策略,既能显得自己宽宏大量,又能让中国处于被动地位。这种策略的成功与否,取决于中国方面的反应。 关于TikTok,特朗普的态度也存在不确定性。虽然他表达了对TikTok的喜爱,但也暗示了可能采取行动。这使得TikTok的未来走向更加扑朔迷离。

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Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers in Taipei and Washington, and a new report on the process behind the Biden Administration's latest round of updates to the semiconductor export controls. At the end: President-elect Trump on his relationship with Xi Jinping, TikTok takes its case to the Supreme Court, and the NBA (sort of) announces plans for a series of preseason games in Macau.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

China Consumer Slowdown Shows Urgent Need to Encourage Spending — Bloomberg)

Prices Won’t Stop Falling in China, and Beijing Is Grasping for Solutions — Wall Street Journal)

China's 2024 property sales on course to reach just half the peak — Nikkei)

A top Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate — Business Insider)

Big Chinese naval exercise leaves Taiwan and US struggling for response — Financial Times)

How U.S. Firms Battled a Government Crackdown to Keep Tech Sales to China — New York Times)

An Interview with Gregory Allen About the State of China Chip Export Controls — Stratechery Interview)

President-elect Donald Trump delivers remarks — CNBC YouTube)

TikTok Asks Supreme Court to Block Law Banning Its U.S. Operations — New York Times)

New trade hawk on the block — Politico)

Real Estate: Bret Baier Home Listed for a Record $32 Million — The Georgetowner)

NBA to return to China with multiyear deal in Macau — Reuters)