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cover of episode (Preview) ‘Protracted War’ and ‘Struggle’; The Looming Risks for the PRC; A Politburo Study Session on AI; Apple’s Attempt to Pivot

(Preview) ‘Protracted War’ and ‘Struggle’; The Looming Risks for the PRC; A Politburo Study Session on AI; Apple’s Attempt to Pivot

2025/4/30
logo of podcast Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Sharp China with Bill Bishop
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Andrew Sharp: 我认为中国正在努力实现科技自主，即使这意味着要减少对美国的依赖。他们正在构建独立的AI系统，虽然会继续购买美国的芯片，但不会依赖美国。中国对AI的政策对英伟达来说是个坏消息。苹果公司正在努力减少对中国制造的依赖，计划将所有在美国销售的iPhone的组装转移到印度，但这面临巨大挑战，因为其供应链与中国供应商密切相关。中国政府正在拖延或阻止苹果将生产设备运往印度，延长了向印度出口苹果生产设备的审批时间。观察苹果公司未来几年的发展，将有助于了解美中关系和全球贸易的未来走向。我以前认为蒂姆·库克没有及早多元化供应链是愚蠢和鲁莽的，但现在看来，如果苹果真的试图离开中国，可能会面临来自中国当局的报复。苹果公司通过设立空壳公司等方式，试图将生产设备转移到印度。 Bill Bishop: (由于没有Bill Bishop的直接引语，此处无法提供其核心论点。) supporting_evidences Andrew Sharp: 'But they're fully decoupling to the extent that they can.' Andrew Sharp: 'I think that this meeting really is more evidence the US and China have reached the point of no return in building bifurcated AI systems.' Andrew Sharp: 'But they are not going to rely on the US.' Andrew Sharp: 'really a pretty bad sign for Nvidia.' Andrew Sharp: 'Apple plans to shift the assembly of all U.S. sold iPhones to India as soon as next year' Andrew Sharp: 'for several years, Apple has been working hard to make more of its iPhones in India so it can reduce dependence on China' Andrew Sharp: 'Increasingly, though, just getting that manufacturing equipment to India is a hassle.' Andrew Sharp: 'Foxconn has seen approval times from Chinese authorities for exporting iPhone-making equipment from its China factories to those in India rise from two weeks to as long as four months' Andrew Sharp: 'watching what happens to Apple over the next couple of years will be a great window into into the future of the US-China relationship and maybe globalized trade in general.' Andrew Sharp: 'I always looked at Tim Cook as foolish and maybe a little reckless for not diversifying the supply chains earlier.' Andrew Sharp: 'one of the ways one of the companies was able to get some of this machinery outside of China is they set up like a shell company.' Andrew Sharp: 'this is all about assembly in India, but every component of the supply chain is now related to Chinese suppliers.'

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Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, and why talk of a resolution and return to the March status quo seems increasingly unrealistic. At the end: The April Politburo meeting reflects both caution and confidence, a study session on AI spells bad news for Nvidia, thoughts on Apple’s story in China as the company tries to relocate US iPhone assembly to India, and Netflix gets the last laugh 15 years after being rebuffed by PRC censors.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

Xi inspects Shanghai, talks AI and Global South; "不跪/Never kneel down"; AI; Jack Ma and Huang Youlong — Sinocism)

April Politburo Study Session on AI is bad news for Nvidia — Sinocism)

Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War. — Beijing Daily)

Never Kneel Down — Ministry of Foreign Affairs on X)

China exempts some goods from US tariffs — Reuters)

US tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China: Goldman Sachs — SCMP)

Emerging markets set to become battlegrounds in trade war — Financial Times)

Trump says Xi called him, lays out trade and other deal plans in Time interview — Reuters)

Exclusive: Trump officials eye changes to Biden's AI chip export rule, sources say — Reuters)

Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China — Financial Times)

Apple’s India Manufacturing Push Faces Spoilers, Including China — The Information)

Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company — Patrick McGee)

Netflix Co-CEO Says They’re Not in China Because ‘Not a Single Episode’ Cleared the Censorship Board — IndieWire)