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cover of episode The Tariff Tit-for-Tat Begins; The PRC and the Panama Canal; Apple and Google in China; DeepSeek One Week Later

The Tariff Tit-for-Tat Begins; The PRC and the Panama Canal; Apple and Google in China; DeepSeek One Week Later

2025/2/6
logo of podcast Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Sharp China with Bill Bishop
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Andrew Sharp: 我认为美国对中国商品征收关税，主要是针对中国在全球芬太尼贸易中扮演的角色，以及芬太尼对美国造成的严重社会问题。虽然中国声称问题在于美国的毒品需求，但美国认为中国可以并且应该在打击芬太尼贸易方面做得更多。美国此举并非仅仅是贸易战，更是对中国在芬太尼问题上不作为的回应。 此外，取消最低限额免税政策对像Temu和Shein这样的跨境电商公司造成了巨大冲击，这也在一定程度上反映了美国对中国商品的整体态度。 在巴拿马运河问题上，美国对中国在巴拿马的投资和影响力表示担忧，认为这可能对美国国家安全构成威胁。美国试图通过施压巴拿马政府来削弱中国的影响力，但这需要美国提供可行的替代方案，否则难以成功。 关于科技领域，美国对中国科技公司的崛起表示担忧，特别是DeepSeek的成功，这被视为对美国出口管制措施的挑战。美国需要重新评估其出口管制政策，并考虑采取更有效的措施。 Bill Bishop: 我认为中国对芬太尼问题的回应是，问题根源在于美国的毒品需求，中国已经采取措施打击芬太尼贸易，但合作程度与中美关系整体状况息息相关。中国对美国关税的回应相对克制，但同时也展示了其反制手段，这表明中国已经拥有比2017年更多的反制工具，并且已经加强了其供应链和反制能力。 取消最低限额免税政策对跨境电商公司有重大影响，这可能意味着像Temu和Shein这样的公司将面临挑战。 关于巴拿马运河，中国在巴拿马的投资和影响力确实让美国担忧，但巴拿马政府迅速决定不再续签“一带一路”倡议，这并不意味着相关项目会立即停止。美国需要向拉美国家提供替代方案，才能有效地削弱中国的影响力。 关于科技领域，中国对谷歌和苹果的调查可能具有象征意义，也可能反映了中国在科技领域与美国竞争的决心。DeepSeek的成功并非完全是刻意为之，但它确实反映了中国科技实力的提升，以及美国出口管制措施的局限性。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the initial 10% US tariffs on PRC goods, focusing on the reasons behind them – primarily the fentanyl crisis – and the PRC's restrained yet pointed response. The discussion explores the potential for escalation and the changing dynamics of US-China trade relations.
  • US imposes 10% tariff on all PRC goods due to fentanyl trade.
  • PRC retaliates with tariffs on US coal, LNG, oil, and other goods.
  • PRC's response is described as restrained but also a display of its expanded capabilities for targeted retaliation.
  • Uncertainty remains about the next steps in the trade dispute, including the possibility of further escalation.

Shownotes Transcript

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus) for $15/month or $150/year.

Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism)

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through a first round of US tariffs on PRC goods and responses from the PRC earlier this week. Topics include: The fentanyl allegations that served as the predicate for these tariffs, Chinese responses that highlight points of leverage should trade tensions escalate, next steps in negotiations, and the end of the de minimis loophole. From there: Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Latin America, the PRC's investments in Panama, and questions for the future of the Panama Canal. At the end: The PRC announces an investigation into Google, a Bloomberg report suggests Apple's being investigated for its app store policies, Apple's growth in China plateaus, and a few more thoughts on DeepSeek as Congress reacts and BIS gets a new leader.

To email the show: [email protected])

@SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube)

@Stratechery Channel — YouTube)

Foreign leaders meet with Xi; US-China; Lu Shaye; Tesla; Modernization; DeepSeek — Sinocism)

US-China tariffs and export controls; Google in China trouble again — Sinocism)

Imposing Duties to Address the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China — The White House)

'We Are Shipping To The U.S.': Inside China's Online Synthetic Drug Networks — NPR)

Beijing Prepares Its Opening Bid to Talk Trade With Trump — Wall Street Journal)

Looking Beyond TikTok: The Risks of Temu — CSIS)

Trump administration weighs adding Shein, Temu to forced labor list — Semafor)

Panama Offers Concessions to US After Rubio Meets President — Bloomberg)

Panama: China’s Strategic Hub — Diaglo Americas)

China targets Google, Nvidia and Intel as Donald Trump’s tariffs bite — Financial Times)

China Weighs Probe Into Apple’s App Store Fees, Practices — Bloomberg)

Apple Earnings, OpenAI Deep Research, The Unbundling of Substantiation — Stratechery)

Foxconn stops sending Chinese workers to India iPhone factories — Rest of World)

Chinese state-linked accounts hyped DeepSeek AI launch ahead of US stock rout, Graphika says — Reuters)

Senators urge tougher chip controls to stymie Chinese AI advance — Washington Post)