cover of episode Choiceology's Guide to Better Decisions: With Guests James Korris, Carey Morewedge & Jack Soll

Choiceology's Guide to Better Decisions: With Guests James Korris, Carey Morewedge & Jack Soll

2024/5/20
logo of podcast Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Carey Morewedge
J
Jack Soll
J
James Kouros
K
Katie Milkman
Topics
James Kouros: 我设计了一个名为《失踪:追寻特里·休斯》的视频游戏,旨在帮助美国情报人员通过处理一个虚构的失踪人口案件来避免决策陷阱。游戏中的线索设计巧妙,会诱导玩家做出带有偏见的反应,例如确认偏差。通过游戏,玩家可以学习到如何识别和避免这些偏差,从而提高决策能力。 例如,游戏中出现的一份洛杉矶餐馆清单,并不支持犯罪嫌疑人绑架的假设,这提醒玩家要考虑反事实假设,避免陷入单一假设的陷阱。游戏结束后,玩家会进行复盘,并学习可能导致他们犯错的认知偏差。 Carey Morewedge: 我与James Kouros合作开发了这个游戏,并进行了相关的研究。我们的研究表明,这个游戏在减少认知偏差方面非常有效,这种效果持续时间较长。我们研究了六种认知偏差,包括偏差盲点、确认偏差、基本归因错误、锚定效应、代表性启发法和社会投射。游戏通过提供反馈和策略指导,帮助玩家了解偏差是什么、它如何影响判断,并学习如何克服这些偏差。 与被动观看讲座相比,沉浸式游戏训练在提高决策能力方面更有效。因为游戏能够提供个性化的反馈,并以更具吸引力的方式进行互动,从而提高玩家的参与度和学习效果。此外,我们的研究还表明,在一个领域学习认知偏差,可以帮助你在其他相关问题上做出更好的决策。 Jack Soll: 为了做出更好的决策,我建议使用以下四个步骤:首先,做好决策准备,确保你精力充沛、头脑清醒,并且有足够的时间来思考和权衡各种选择。其次,拓宽思路,考虑更广泛的可能性,避免陷入单一选项的陷阱。第三,寻求独立的意见,避免被他人意见所影响。第四,进行实验,尝试那些你认为行不通的事情,并从中学到教训。 通过多次审视同一个问题,或者寻求其他人的意见,可以帮助我们避免主观偏见。在一些情况下,我们可以通过A/B测试等方法进行实验,而在另一些情况下,则需要依靠他人的智慧,例如让朋友扮演魔鬼代言人,提出不同的观点。 Katie Milkman: 通过学习认知偏差,我们可以显著提高我们的判断力。我们经常会犯一些常见的错误,例如寻求现有信念的确认,而不是以平衡的方式寻找信息;将人们的行为归因于他们性格的固定特征,而不是他们的处境;以及对重要问题考虑得过于狭隘。 幸运的是,这些偏差是可以克服的。我们可以通过做好决策准备、拓宽思路、寻求独立意见以及进行实验等方法来提高决策能力。通过倾听Choiceology播客,我们可以更好地了解认知偏差,并学习如何避免这些偏差,从而做出更明智的决策。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Over the years, Choiceology has offered a lot of advice for making better decisions. In this special episode of *Choiceology with *Katy Milkman), we bring you the story of a video game that is surprisingly effective at reducing decision errors, and you'll hear about a practical checklist for improving choices in many different contexts.

Solving fictitious mysteries might sound like fun and games, but the video game *MISSING: The Pursuit of Terry Hughes *was designed with a serious purpose in mind: to help intelligence analysts avoid decision-making traps. In 2015, James Korris and Carey Morewedge worked together to design a video game for the intelligence agency IARPA, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, and measured the biases exhibited before and after playing the series of 90-minute games. The results were remarkable and extremely durable.

James Korris) is president and CEO of Creative Technologies Inc.) in Los Angeles, and is a pioneer in immersive game-based simulation for military learning. You can see a preview of the game James designed titled MISSING: The Pursuit of Terry Hughes).

Next, Katy speaks with Carey Morewedge) about the game and about his research on effective decision-debiasing techniques. You can learn more in the paper Carey co-authored with James titled "Debiasing Decisions: Improved Decision Making With a Single Training Intervention)."

Carey Morewedge is a professor of marketing at Boston University Questrom School of Business) who studies psychological biases and how to reduce them. 

Finally, Katy speaks with Jack Soll to hear his checklist of four simple ways to debias yourself before making decisions, big or small. You can read more in the article Jack and Katy co-authored with John Payne titled "Outsmart Your Own Biases)." 

Jack Soll) is the Gregory Mario & Jeremy Mario Distinguished Professor of Management and Organizations at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. 

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab). For more on the show, visit schwab.com/Choiceology).

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts).

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable source. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed and Charles Schwab & Co. expressly disclaims any liability, including incidental or consequential damages, arising from errors or omissions in this publication. 

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. 

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.

Apple, the Apple logo, iPad, iPhone, and Apple Podcasts are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

(0524-2GW1)