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cover of episode Instant Reaction: Amazon Gives Weak Forecast on Trade Concerns

Instant Reaction: Amazon Gives Weak Forecast on Trade Concerns

2025/5/1
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Bloomberg Technology
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C
Caroline Hyde
P
Poonam Goyal
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Caroline Hyde: 我认为我们必须弄清楚这是否是基础设施支出。看看Meta发生了什么，他们表示，由于基础设施成本将会略高一些，他们将不得不增加资本支出。但整体盈利能力将被最终他们必须从利润率方面支付的费用所吞噬。他们是否会牺牲一些利润率，来保护处于弱势地位的消费者？亚马逊的利润率可能还会受到第三方卖家支出减少和广告收入下降的影响。亚马逊的新闻稿中没有明确提及关税对其业绩的影响。亚马逊可能正在与中国供应商谈判，并可能将部分关税成本转嫁给供应商或自己承担。亚马逊不太可能公开说明关税对其价格的影响。亚马逊面临的关税问题并非其独有，但其云业务的敞口使其情况有所不同。如果亚马逊因供应商成本上升而提高价格，其他零售商也会效仿，最终导致美国消费者承担更高的价格。亚马逊拥有足够的现金储备和投资者支持，能够更好地应对关税带来的利润率冲击。亚马逊需要应对关税冲击，但其业务韧性使其能够渡过难关。中国政府可能会支持本国经济和出口商，这将影响亚马逊与中国供应商的谈判。亚马逊需要调整供应链，并可能在短期内牺牲利润率，以应对关税。亚马逊并不害怕让投资者对利润感到失望，其销售额仍然强劲。 Poonam Goyal: 我认为亚马逊第二季度运营收入预期下调的主要原因是关税导致的成本增加。亚马逊在新闻稿中没有明确提及关税的影响，这并不令人意外。亚马逊直接承担自营商品的关税，而第三方卖家则需要自行应对，但亚马逊会帮助他们调整价格以保持竞争力。亚马逊第一季度和第二季度业绩差异的主要原因是关税。亚马逊平台上超过70%的商品来自中国，无论其是自营还是第三方销售。美国零售市场上大部分商品都来自海外，这使得关税的影响波及广泛。尽管AWS销售增长放缓，但其利润率仍然很高，长期潜力巨大。其他零售商也面临着与亚马逊相同的关税逆风，消费者最终将承担更高的价格。除非关税情况好转，否则消费者将面临更高的价格，企业也难以迅速转移生产地。亚马逊平台上可能会出现缺货情况，因为企业为了维持利润率可能暂停从中国进口商品。如果价格大幅上涨，消费者可能会减少购买或转向更便宜的替代品。如果价格上涨，消费者可能会减少购买数量，转向平价品牌或更耐用的商品。亚马逊需要关注如何应对关税冲击，特别是如何控制第三方卖家的价格，以保持其平台的吸引力。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Amazon.com gave a weaker-than-expected forecast for operating profit in the current quarter, pointing toward tariffs and trade policies that may cause consumers to pull back on spending. The world’s largest online retailer projected operating profit of $13 billion to $17.5 billion, compared with an average estimate of $17.8 billion. Sales will be $159 billion to $164 billion in the period ending in June, the company said Thursday in a statement. Analysts, on average, expected $161.4 billion.Amazon shares have fallen about 13% this year as Wall Street weighs the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on a retail operation that sources much of its goods from China. Investors are generally bullish on the company’s efforts to become a major force in artificial intelligence, but there are concerns that Amazon’s prodigious spending on data centers may not translate into meaningful sales growth any time soon.Amazon Web Services, the largest seller of rented computing power, reported first-quarter sales gained 17% to $29.3 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates. It was the unit’s slowest growth in a year.For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

  • Bloomberg Technology co-host Caroline Hyde
  • Bloomberg Intelligence senior US e-commerce and retail analyst Poonam Goyal

 

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