We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode BTC224: Global Liquidity and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mezinskis (Bitcoin Podcast)

BTC224: Global Liquidity and Bitcoin w/ Matthew Mezinskis (Bitcoin Podcast)

2025/3/5
logo of podcast We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
N
Nick Huber
P
Preston Pysh
Topics
Nick Huber: 我密切关注全球流动性,特别是货币基础。自疫情以来,全球货币基础大幅增长,随后又有所下降,但仍处于历史高位。美元相对于其他货币走强,各国央行都在努力控制通货膨胀,这导致全球流动性收紧。尽管如此,全球货币供应量仍保持在每年约12.6%的复合增长率,这仍然是一个相当高的数字。 此外,我观察到,长期以来,股票市场、债券市场和黄金市场都遵循指数增长模式。然而,比特币的价格走势却不同,它遵循幂律曲线,复合年增长率约为45%。这种幂律增长模式与网络效应的增长方式类似,例如城市的发展。比特币的价格走势更像是一个采用率曲线,反映的是比特币网络的采用和发展,而不是对短期宏观经济因素的反应。 至于减半,我认为它会对价格产生持续影响,但其增长率会随着时间的推移而下降。比特币的独特之处在于,它同时具有指数衰减(减半)、对数(供应曲线)和幂律(价格与市场价值)三种不同的曲线,这使得它的价格走势比其他资产更加复杂和难以预测。 Preston Pysh: 我同意Nick Huber关于全球流动性收紧的观点,但我也注意到,尽管流动性下降,股市却在飙升。我认为这是因为长期债券交易的结束,投资者正在转向股票市场以保持购买力。 关于比特币,我同意比特币价格更多地反映的是采用率曲线,而不是对短期宏观经济因素的反应。但是,我对幂律曲线和S曲线的长期预测存在疑问。我认为,随着国家和企业对比特币的采用,比特币的价格可能会经历一个更快的增长阶段,类似于S曲线。 至于减半,我认为它仍然会对价格产生影响,但其影响力可能不如早期那么大。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode, Preston and Matthew dive deep into Bitcoin’s design, its ability to protect financial autonomy, and the macroeconomic trends shaping its value.

Matthew breaks down Bitcoin price models, stock-to-flow analysis, and the role of global liquidity. They also explore the impact of Layer-2 solutions and make bold predictions about Bitcoin’s future in global finance.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

01:47 - Why Bitcoin serves as an "escape hatch" from centralized financial instability

04:34 - How Bitcoin’s design ensures individual financial autonomy in a digital world

06:26 - What historical economic patterns suggest about Bitcoin’s resilience

13:47 - The most overlooked factors in Bitcoin valuation and price modeling

18:48 - How stock-to-flow holds up today and alternative valuation frameworks

20:39 - Key metrics for tracking global liquidity and Bitcoin’s role as a store of value

28:38 - The significance of macro liquidity and its effect on Bitcoin’s adoption

31:38 The impact of Layer-2 scaling solutions on Bitcoin’s liquidity

43:44 - How Bitcoin’s fixed supply interacts with the need for liquidity in a digital economy

44:12 - A bold 10-year prediction for Bitcoin’s role in reshaping global finance

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

**BOOKS AND RESOURCES**

  • Porkopolis Economics** **website).

  • Matthew's** X Account**).

  • Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here).

  • Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed).

NEW TO THE SHOW?

SPONSORS

Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors):

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices)

Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm)