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cover of episode TIP696: Mastermind Discussion Q1, 2025 w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, and Shawn O'Malley

TIP696: Mastermind Discussion Q1, 2025 w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, and Shawn O'Malley

2025/2/2
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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

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Stig Brodersen
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Tobias Carlisle: 我認為VeriSign是一家穩健且易於理解的公司,雖然估值略高,但其業務的確定性使其值得投資。VeriSign作為重要的互聯網基礎設施和域名供應商,與ICANN簽訂合約,壟斷.com域名的註冊,並擁有穩定的續約率。儘管銷售增長僅略高於4%,但通過股票回購,每股收益增長達到10.7%。我認為VeriSign的風險較低,雖然沒有巨大的投機性上漲空間,但預計未來五到六年能穩定複合增長10%。 Shawn O'Malley: 我認同VeriSign的業務模式具有高度可預測性,但對其缺乏定價權和分銷控制表示擔憂。VeriSign的收入主要來自全球.com和.net網站的域名註冊費,但來自中國的收入有所下降,顯示出網站註冊的週期性。此外,VeriSign的定價受到監管,且分銷依賴GoDaddy等平台,這些平台更傾向於推銷利潤更高的其他域名。AI技術的發展也可能影響網站訪問量,進而影響域名註冊。儘管VeriSign的自由現金流利潤率高達56%,但營運槓桿的雙面性意味著銷售額下降可能導致利潤大幅下滑。 Stig Brodersen: 我認為VeriSign類似於公用事業,可能適合保值而非快速致富。雖然.com域名不太可能消失,但ChatGPT等AI工具的普及可能減少對網站的直接訪問。VeriSign的定價受限,在通脹環境下可能面臨挑戰。此外,考慮到VeriSign的高盈利和持續漲價,可能引發公眾反對。我認為VeriSign的增長更多是人為驅動,而非自然增長,目前的市盈率為24倍,可能偏高。

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In today's episode, Stig Brodersen is talking stocks with Tobias Carlisle and Shawn O’Malley. Tobias is pitching VeriSign, a business that prints money with high certainty year after year. Stig’s pick is the serial acquirer LIFCO, a wonderful company priced for perfection that he is on his watch list. Shawn’s stock of choice is the compounder, Ulta Beauty. 

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

03:19 - Why Toby is bullish on VeriSign (Ticker on NASDAQ: VRSN)

07:29 - The bear case of VeriSign, including the threat of AI

26:40 - Stig’s bull case is for Lifco (Ticker on the Swedish Stock Exchange: Lifco-B) 

42:35 - The bear case for Lifco, including what it implies to be priced for perfection. 

1:07:45 - Why Shawn has invested in Ulta Beauty (Ticker on NASDAQ: ULTA)

1:26:46 - The bear case for Ulta includes competitive pressure from Sephora and the CEO stepping down.

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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