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cover of episode TIP700: How to Invest during Fiscal Dominance w/ Lyn Alden

TIP700: How to Invest during Fiscal Dominance w/ Lyn Alden

2025/2/21
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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

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C
Clay Fink
L
Lyn Alden
一位专注于宏观经济和金融分析的投资策略师和研究员,著名于其对比特币和全球流动性的研究。
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Lyn Alden: 我认为财政支配是本十年最重要的宏观经济主题之一。它意味着政府赤字货币化导致货币供应增加,这与过去几十年以银行贷款为主导的货币支配模式形成对比。在财政支配时期,央行控制通胀的工具效力下降,财政政策的影响增强。投资者需要关注财政赤字规模、利率变化、以及由此带来的资产价格波动。大型科技公司的增长受益于财政支配导致的资金流入美国股市,但这种趋势并非永久不变。未来可能会出现资本重新分配的周期,资金流向其他市场。在财政支配时期,即使出现经济衰退迹象,也应比以往更乐观地看待股市,关注与财政赤字相关的行业。 我建议采用三支柱投资组合:股票、债券和抗通胀资产。国际多元化可以降低投资组合的尾部风险,但近年来美国资产表现优于国际资产。能源密度、计算能力和网络效应是三个不会消失的长期趋势,投资者应关注这些领域。 Clay Fink: 许多价值投资者认为关注宏观环境并不重要,但我认为财政支配对金融市场有重大影响。本期节目将讨论财政支配的定义、重要性,以及如何在财政支配时期进行投资等问题。如何向不了解金融的普通人提供投资建议?建议采用三支柱投资组合:股票、债券和抗通胀资产,并考虑国际多元化和资产稀缺性。

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Shownotes Transcript

On today’s episode, Clay is joined by Lyn Alden to discuss fiscal dominance and its implications for investors. While many value investors claim that following the macro environment isn’t all that important, Lyn makes the compelling case that fiscal dominance has a considerable impact on financial markets overall.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

02:03 - What fiscal dominance is and why it matters.

08:39 - Why the S&P 500 is at all-time highs with the backdrop of higher interest rates.

11:36 - Whether Lyn expects US big tech to continue to outperform.

19:05 - How the US will continue to run large fiscal deficits.

28:55 - Why nothing stops the fiscal dominance train.

36:20 - Where we are at in the liquidity cycle.

41:08 - How to invest during a period of fiscal dominance.

55:19 - Lyn’s three major trends to never fade.

And so much more!

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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