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cover of episode TIP714: Bet Big, Bet Rarely: The Dhandho Investing Playbook w/ Kyle Grieve

TIP714: Bet Big, Bet Rarely: The Dhandho Investing Playbook w/ Kyle Grieve

2025/4/13
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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
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Kyle Grieve
投资分析师和播客主持人，专注于高质量股票分析和投资策略讨论。
Topics
我深入研究了Mohnish Pabrai的《Dhandho Investor》一书，并分享了我对书中九大核心投资原则的理解。这些原则包括：1. 投资现有企业，而非从零开始创业；2. 投资简单易懂的企业，避免复杂性；3. 投资困境行业中的困境企业，寻找被低估的机会；4. 投资拥有持久竞争优势（护城河）的企业；5. 进行少量且不频繁的投资，集中精力；6. 关注套利机会，寻找价格与价值的差异；7. 始终保持安全边际，降低风险；8. 投资低风险高不确定性企业，利用市场情绪；9. 模仿成功者，而非追求创新。 我用Papa Patel的汽车旅馆投资案例和Ipsco的投资案例阐述了投资现有企业和简单企业的优势，并用菲亚特克莱斯勒和Ferrari的案例说明了在困境中寻找机会的重要性以及识别隐藏价值的必要性。我还讨论了护城河的重要性，并以亚马逊和Tesoro为例，说明了隐藏护城河的存在以及如何识别。 在集中投资方面，我介绍了Kelly准则，并解释了为什么在价值投资中，Kelly准则的适用性有限。我强调了集中投资、耐心和非对称性回报的重要性，并以沃伦·巴菲特投资美国运通的案例为例进行了说明。 关于安全边际，我以Costco为例，说明了如何评估安全边际，以及在市场低估优质企业时如何利用安全边际获得高额回报。我还讨论了投资低风险高不确定性企业的重要性，并以Ipsco为例进行了说明。 最后，我讨论了模仿而非创新的重要性，并以微软和腾讯为例进行了说明。我还探讨了卖出的时机，并指出在持有优质企业时，应该更注重长期价值，而非短期波动。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the advantages of investing in existing businesses over starting new ventures. It highlights the reduced risk and increased cash flow potential of established businesses, illustrated with the case study of Papa Patel's motel investment. The public markets are also compared to private investments, highlighting the advantages of fractional ownership, reduced capital requirements, and ease of access to diverse businesses.
  • Lower risk in established businesses
  • Cash flow positive even without improvement
  • Public markets offer fractional ownership and ease of access

Shownotes Transcript

On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve dives deep into Mohnish Pabrai’s The Dhandho Investor, unpacking its nine core principles through vivid case studies and personal reflections to help investors embrace simplicity, asymmetric bets, and the power of cloning proven ideas.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

03:34 - Why buying an existing business can be a smarter path than starting one from scratch.

11:32 - Profiting from businesses with short-term earnings visibility—and why it matters.

13:07 - The enduring strength and clarity of simple business models.

17:39 - How distressed businesses in troubled industries can become goldmines.

31:46 - Why hidden moats often offer the biggest edge—and how to spot them.

38:08 - The case for concentration: how fewer bets can lead to outsized returns.

50:28 - What modeling Costco reveals about risk, value, and margin of safety.

55:13 - The counterintuitive appeal of low-risk, high-uncertainty investments.

59:13 - How to use the cloning principle to shortcut your search for winners.

01:02:09 - Why your sell strategy should evolve with the quality of the business you own.

And so much more!

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

  • Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here).

  • Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community) to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.

  • Read The Dhando Investor here).

  • Read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham here).

  • Read Richer, Wiser, Happier by William Green here).

  • Read The Little Book That Beats the Market by Joel Greenblatt here).

  • Follow Kyle on X) and LinkedIn).

  • Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here).

  • Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed).

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