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cover of episode TIP717: Berkshire Hathaway 2025 w/ Chris Bloomstran

TIP717: Berkshire Hathaway 2025 w/ Chris Bloomstran

2025/4/27
logo of podcast We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

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Stig Brodersen: 我很想知道你对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司未来十年回报率的看法,以及你对当前市场环境的评估。 Chris Bloomstran: 我认为在未来十年内,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的回报率可能在7%-9%之间,这仍然高于10年期国债和标普500指数的预期回报率。然而,考虑到当前市场估值较高,我目前不会大量购买伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票,而是选择在市场下跌时逢低买入。 David Collum: 我同意Chris的观点,当前市场估值过高,存在下跌风险。在选择投资标的时,信任度非常重要,投资者更倾向于选择值得信赖的投资经理和公司。 Robert Leonard: 我认为伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在董事会中应该发挥积极作用,但公开表达意见的程度应该适度,并遵循“公开赞扬,私下批评”的原则。 Chris Bloomstran: 我认为信任是最重要的,尤其是在管理他人的资金时,避免风险并努力做得正确至关重要。在通货膨胀环境下,企业用于替换固定资产的维护资本支出往往高于会计上的折旧费用,这是一种被低估的成本。我撰写年度报告并非为了追求遗产,而是出于对价值投资社区的贡献和对知识分享的热爱。

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Shownotes Transcript

Stig has invited legend investor Chris Bloomstran from Semper Augustus to teach us how to value Berkshire Hathaway on today's show. Semper Augustus has an outstanding track record with a compounded annual growth rate of 11.4% on equities since its fund's inception on 2/28/1999, compared to 8.2% for the S&P 500.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

01:45 - The importance of being trusted for Warren Buffett and Chris Bloomstran

18:20 - Why you may want to own a 10-year treasury over the S&P 500 over the next decade 

20:28 - How to estimate whether you’re in a secular peak

27:43 - How active Berkshire should be on the boards of portfolio companies

36:03 - How to take a deep dive into Berkshire Hathaway’s culture and business model

43:53 - What the intrinsic value of Berkshire Hathaway is, and what type of return you can get moving forward

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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