MacroVoices #454 Vincent Deluard: The Five Body Problem
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This is macro voices, the free weekly financial podcast, targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices and other sophisticated investors. Macro voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macro economics. Telling IT like IT is bullish, bearish, no holds bar. Now here are your hosts eric tow and Patrick season A.

Macrovoice as episode four fifty four was produced on november four eighth twenty twenty four i'm ert ant stonex chief macro o strategist Vincent del art returns is this week's future interview test will discuss secular inflation, the gay economy and what Vincents is calling the shadow lending and savings markets Vincents take on precious metals in the wake of the election and how far they have left to fall plus a new this is is calling the five body problem after the future interview in our post game segment. I'll add some of my own commentary about the news flow coming out of the trump transition team in the wake of the election, including what elan vivie and toes appointments will mean to establishment wings of both political parties.

And on Patrick season, with the macro score board week over week as of the close of wednesday, november thirteen, two thousand and twenty four, the december S M P five hundred futures up ninety seven basis points, trading at six thousand and sixteen to post election momentum continues. Will take a closer look at that chart and the key technical levels to watch in the post game segment, the U. S, dollar index up one hundred and thirty basis points, trading at one of six forty eight, ripping into resistance at multi year high.

But will we see the breakout the december W, T, I crucial contract down four hundred and fifty five basis points trading at sixty eight forty three continues to trade along support lines established over the last few months to december r bob gasoline down three hundred ninety six spaces points trading at one ninety four the december gold contract down four hundred and sixty basis points treating at twenty five fifty three, quickly retracing fifty percent of the games made since the summer. Copper down five hundred sixty five basis points, trading at four or one. Accelerated selling has us back down to the August lows.

Uranium up one hundred and forty nine basis points, trading at seventy eight thirty. The U. S. Ten year treasure yield up two basis points, trading at four or forty five.

The key used to watch this week is friday's retail sales number, and next week we have the european and us flash manufacturing and services. P M. S. This week's future interview, justice stonex chief macros rated gist Vincent dely's, eric and Vincent discuss secular inflation, impact of trust policies, the shadow economy and more. Eric interview with insideshe ward is coming up as macrovoice continues right here at macrovoice 到 com。

And now with this week, special guest, here's your host, eric towns.

Joining me now is Vincent del art, who heads up microstrip gy for stonex. Vince ent, can't believe it's been four years since we had you on the show. It's great to have you back listeners.

Vincent has shared with us some really excEllent research is the stuff you Normally have to pay for its linked in your research round up email. We're going to talk about three separate stonex intelligence reports for incident. Let's just start with the big picture of you made the call, as did several of our other favorite guests.

Our mutual friend luga called the secular inflation several years ago. As you did, everybody else was saying, I is transitory. It's just going to be short term pandemic effects. You're are the guy to say, no, the pandemic is the catalyst that's going to bring about a secular inflation. Seems like you and li and number of other smart people are being proven right.

Let's just get the big picture update what's happening with inflation? Or do you still have that view that this is the beginning of a secular inflation? Because, look, we're just having what seems like the end of a wave. A lot of people are saying it's ending.

Yes, and thank you. It's a pleasure to be back here, and thank you for the introduction. The secular call would not be a secular call if we were to change IT just because one measure of infection on and I i'll stressed that the C.

P. I is a measure of inflation with certain bias, certain choices. But it's not inflation. Ent itself has come down two levels that are still far above what we had before. So yes, inflation is a process, not an event, and typically occurs in ways.

So seeing some site inflation like a little signy picture and that we are seeing is actually what you would expect. And that's that's what you see in the past. If you think about the seventies, you have these three ascending ways, right? One thousand, nine hundred seventy, one thousand and seventy three, nineteen seventy nine.

If you think about the fifties, uh, you had one on the U. S. Mobilize, another one uh, during the war, and then another one after the korean war.

I actually want all the way back, using bank of ireland data back to the midst ages, uh, to tests. The hypothesis said inflation indeed is a wave like pattern. So the notion that would have a kind of one and done is very, I wouldn't say unprecedented because I have any data on all countries.

I could say that would be certainly the minority to see a single wave. And then we just go back to the whole world. One thing I want you to rebound up on is also, when you mention cool IT was a trigger, I think that was that actually correct uh but it's I think is the response from coffee that was a trade code itself was neither inflationary nor deflationary.

I mean if then somewhat neutral that to be deflationary, if we if we just had basically um you know dramatically cut our consumption of a commodities of all Prices were negative IT could have been deficient and and actually I was in china when we had completely different response. Copy IT was a facial shock. What was in fashioning after code was the response, the fact that we grew up the deficit.

I mean, we the deficit increase more than indigenous war, war after cove IT. And contrary the war or two, we did not Normalize after that. This is a baLance inflationary.

This is the policy function, the reaction from the fed, from the fiscal authorities. This is why raise inflation. And this is what makes me think that is going to come back, not because of some different shock.

I obviously cannot predict shock. In one thousand nine and seventy nine was the iranian revolution that traded IT. Uh, one thousand nine hundred and seventy three was the OPEC orden bargle. There is going to be in A A shock, and the response to that shock will be inferiority.

Let's talk about what this means in the context of president elect Donald trumps coming into office. Clearly, he has some intentions to shake some things up, change some policies. Are those going to uh, exacerbate this inflation that you're anticipating? Or are they going to maybe make IT a little bit Better?

I would think so at the core trims of properties candia. I I don't mean that in a ogallala way, I believe democracy should be run for the benefit of the people. So popular m is not a daily word, uh, but popular m is essentially in facial uh.

We also have the experience of the four years of uh, the first track Mandate when in everything an economy that was really on the visual deflation. I mean, remember back in in twenty sixteen, we have the chinese, the evaluation. We have a massive slowdown in GDP growth.

Uh, we are being all the targets. We had very red. We comedy Prices when tom came in kind of kick in, all the animal spirits inflation came up.

So I think this time it's gonna even stronger because he has an even grew popular Mandate or three branches of government. Uh, he also has a popular vote. He also has to think his his game Better together.

I mean, one of the thing that was unsettle about trump, one was the the massive turn over an administration, the the lack of clarity between various part of administration who seem to be five fighting each other. I suspect some of that is going to be a lot more consistent this time. Uh, we've probably emerge bigger role from that properties faction that that really putting for the line.

I mean, you look at the the poor, I think that probably R F gate is a lot for for trump, I mean telsey j events, uh, that kind of populist isolation is amErica first. Uh, line, uh, is probably much stronger. There will be lot less resistance also on traditional republicans because a lot of the imagine voted out, basically you did not kiss the ring.

You were kicked out so great a lie for him to implement. And then finally, also very different economic conditions. As I mention when trump was first elected, the economy was on the verge of deflation, were still in the in the next two thousand times, which was a deflationary decade.

We had quite a bit of austerity on the obama. We had zero rate. Uh, so the trump policy shock was actually positive. This is what the economy needed. The economy needed fiscal similars.

The economy could handle tariff s because we what happened is a daughter went up so the effectively we can repay for the terrorists. So the policy prescription of trump one economically were correct in twenty twenty four. We have a very different situation.

We have an economy that's going to up three percent for eight quarters. Um we have inflation that is I think I would call that almost an optical illusion, the four to two and four percent. I mean, we can talk about IT later, but I I mean, if you go down, I don't think in fashion.

I has formed to two point four. I think with I would look at things like core services x housing that shows that is run four, four and a half person. So we were twice, twice to target, uh, we have no other book gap.

And we also have immigration. We have A X immigration, what I think is a very tightly labour market. So again, very different circumstance. Ces, which would likely mean that you start from a basis a lot more efficiently and you add you to the .

fire vent back in the day. This was a pretty easy investment call. You think they're secular inflation. You buy gold for your portfolio IT seems like maybe the rules are changing because in minutes after the trump win was clear, the gold market started crashing, were down two hundred and fifty dollars already on gold.

And this is happening really when most people had predicted that a trump win would be extremely bullish. Ed, for gold. I think what's going on here is a rotation out of ld into bitcoin because of president trumps seemingly strong desire to accommodate the cyndi community. Is that what this is, is is something else. Why is goal go in the opposite direction from what so many people predicted?

I think you spotted on the rotation into crypto. I mean, you can see IT busy one go straight up, the a one goes straight down. Um I want to maybe contextualized the falling goal Prices.

I know what is still at two thousand six hundred, you know I mean, come on in a way it's healthy like that yeah you know you don't want you don't want a market that goes straight up because you know that this blow of top that mean you can go on forever. So some consolidation. And even if we go down to two thousand four hundred d that's really not the end of the year.

I mean go at a fantastic year. So um it's not a bad thing for us to to digest these gains. The other the idea is very motioning with what you said about the election on his gold value as as a hedge against political uncertainty going into the election.

If you read the poles, he was basically tight, right I mean, and of course, that he was mated, that the police is heard, and nobody wanted to have the next gout. And then, so I was fate, but nonetheless a little, and that we were gonna have this this late election. And that may be by the end of children.

I would wouldn't know who win both candidates with clam Victory would have some sort of january six like event and and I thin some of the the trade was OK by gold in in the van that we see true political incipit in the U. S. Are you also in the skill puts a lot more expensive than calls? Uh, the vicks was very elevated.

So the unwinding on that trade, uh, really kind of bringing the victis down to lower level, taking down away with IT and then, uh, bitcoins kind of acting the other way because we have all these institute ses about trump, the first critical president and so forth. But again, this is a trade is gona wind out eventually it's onna run out of cellos. And then we go back to what I think of the fundamental of the gold trade, which big accumulation by central banks, second inflation, and a third that is consistently and on purpose is on by design behind behind the curve info on I E maintaining negative or rates, which of course, very budget for both.

I couldn't agree with you more on all of those points, but now I get to do the fun part and put you on the spot. As we're recording tuesday afternoon, we're just barely holding onto the round number at twenty six hundred.

And after a few days of really aggressive selling, is IT ending or is IT just getting started? Is this the time to buy the dip? Or should we be hedging our gold positions in expecting more turbulence before it's eventually time to buy at much lower?

I'm not the that short term trader because it's a great way to look like a fool. But if if I were to make a guess, I think we closer the bottom, then we then we are the top. And if your horizon is anywhere longer than five months of thing is by the deep opportunity, what one way um you know this could resolve uh is I mean, we still have a lot of potentially gold bullish ever ahead of us.

Mean I I keep looking at a dollar index show and see seeing this this dollar shooting straight up at some point that's going to be a problem for the trump. If we really want to do, uh, in industrial, bring back to ohio palash. We can do that with a hundred and ten dollar index.

So at some point we're gone to see trump three blocking at higher rates, trying to get other currencies to be revalued. And once you start see the dollar n index, maybe not for that, he style lizer. You know, that goal is going to frustration up again with IT.

Maybe you can help educate me because I think president trump must understand some aspects or nuances of micro economics that I haven't learned yet. One of his statements is that we absolutely, positively must defend the us. Dollars role as global reserve currency because the U.

S. Gains a lot of strategic benefit from that effective monopoly over its dominance of the the global monetary system. We can't let go of that. He's been very emphatic on that point. Then a few minutes later, he talks about a strategic bitcoin reserve. Now bitcoin is a currency system that was designed for the express purpose of undermining the the monopoly that governments have over the money system, decentralizing money, so that no government is in charge of IT, and so that the concept of a global reserve currency, IT, is effectively replaced by a new paradigm. Vince, in this, president trump understand something i'm not giving him credit for or is he making inherently contradictory statements evidencing that he's the one who doesn't get IT?

I think he's just being a politician here. I mean, abc, he got the endorsement ment of the crypto become community. He wants to for something back at them. I'd be very surprised if we saw this bit coin national form.

By the way, we can already have one right because the every time the the F B I C es crept to access to the criminal activity is actually mining IT ends up uh on the account of the the U. S. government.

So we only have a bit conformed. So I wouldn't put too much h credence uh, into the the idea that we're gona create A A big console ign found also the idea that we are going to have a sovereign well, fun. These are all things that trump like likes to fall around. But again, we had four years of trump s that did not happen before. It's very, very hard to see a strong policy case for IT.

So faith, the strategic bitcoin reserve. But considering what we've seen in the market, clearly, there's a rotation going on a should those of us who have been skeptical of bitcoin specifically because, I mean, what that is, look, the idea of democratizing the money system, so the people owit instead of the government owning IT. I love the idea.

I just thought I was impossible that government would ever allow the loss of its monopoly and that they would fight IT IT seems like president trump doesn't want to fight the faction of the bitcoin community that would like to promote bitcoin. As is more of a trade settlement in and maybe even reserve asset currency for other central banks. Does that maybe change the thesis and say that people should be allocating more into crypto or or beginning to allocate into cypher if they had previously same gold is the right traitor?

Again, on that, I would follow the action of central banks rather than the words, I mean, words are cheap. If you see what the central banks are doing in in russia, in in china, in turkey, in kaskida, in jaa, are you see this very clear move towards gold? Or maybe, I mean, you I I put the bricks currency idea and the same category of ideas that keep coming back and never actually happened. But I don't really see a huge impulse from central banks to to load up on bitcoin because that's the next asset and that see easiest way to transact rapid needs not. So this might be .

one .

of these case of of of selling news, like by the rumor, sell the news so that the run up to the trumpet action was very good for bit going. Uh, I suspect the second part of IT, now that we had all the possible good news, we have the big f, we had we to fight down the 啊 OK。 What's the next no knowledge even have boom MERS that are buying bitt point on the regulate change on on the four one case. I mean, where is the next wave of money going to come from?

Vince IT, before we leave the inflation topic, I just want to let our listeners know that you put an excEllent piece back in August titled inflation is a process, not an event. Listeners, you'll find that linked in your research round up email once IT, let's move on to another piece that you wrote called shadow work, shadow lending and shadow savings. What's that one about?

Well, it's about something that's been buzzing. I think economies for a long time is is a good sense that the tools that we have do not seem to capture reality as well as they used to.

And you can see that in pretty much any official statistics that you see, uh, whether is the discrepancy between um income and GDP, uh, whether it's revisions to the non from peril numbers, whether it's revision to the A G P estimate or whether it's the the same things rate, there seems to be something about this economy that we can't quite measure and that something seems to be on the positive side, right? Growth has been, generally speaking, much more regime than people thought. Consumption keeps surprising to the upside.

Uh, so this seems to be this kind of shadow economy that we're not quite getting. And I was making an hypothesis, which would have made for a long time that i'm gonna p with the shadow work, but then i'm going to shadow savings and the shadow lending. So shadow work, I think, is the most important part, which is that basically the U.

S. Is going backwards in terms of development. The idea when when you study development economics, you have this kind of shadow economy where people just use cash and sell stuff on the street.

And then that's as the man happens. And more people were for the companies, and then everything gets stacks for the banking system and all that. My persons that the U.

S. Is, is going the way of brazil or colombia Opera, where the part that you see actually shrinks and the part that's on the shadow is exploding. And and part of that is technology, right? If you think about the past twenty years, all the in the major innovations that we had was what I call inventing the cooling, basically finding way to utilize assets or workers in a flexible way that is not for the primary job. So oh, you have a, you know, any low unit well put on airbnb, get some money like that.

Oh, you car sitting around or just rented to some lazy to someone else and that someone is going to drive uber or door dh, or you know, if I asked my my nine year old kid right now, what he wants to only grows up is going to tell me he wants to be a youtube creator um if you were pretty girl would probably another format that i'm not really about to discuss here. But I would just mention that only fans creator last year made more money than the entire N. B.

L. together. So we had this explosion of the avenues for people to earn revenue outside their main job that was going on before code.

And then call IT accelerated because suddenly most people were working from home and they stay from home, which make this even easier and easier. So no one really knows how big that is. The one way I can track IT is by looking at self employment tax collection.

So these are this is tax that's collected on on income that's coming from self implement, not not the part that's without from your your w 2u paycheck。 Uh and and the growth here is just tuning stunning. And we've come from almost nothing to a trillion dollar in tax receipts.

So let's say you have a trillion dollar in tax receipt. This is this is what you tax so the the base that as soon the that is twenty percent, by the way, too high and fifteen percent will be Better but that lets go with twenty twenty percent. That means that the underlying uh stream of income that your taxing is six strata, I mean six trees, twenty percent of U S.

G D P. Six three is about twice the size of brazil. So what I like to say that there is A A brazil to brazil that are hiding in the U.

S. Economy and growing by ten percent or more a year. And and that's been going on for six, seven years. So to me, this is really the engine that mains a lot of resilience of consumption because yeah, maybe people are losing their job.

But you know fifteen years ago, when the great financial crisis, if you lost your job at a car factor in detroit that was IT, you are done for, you know, you started to default on a crack call, default home. You have that many options because no one else around you was hiring. Today, you lose your job, you can sign up as an uber driver.

I am according to a uber CF, the uber drivers may make an average of thirty five dollar. And now and now that doesn't include the cost of gas, the cost of insurance, the cost of the carbon. These are expenses that people have anyway, right? So the ability to get that new job means that this this halo unemployment though the distinction, you know, when we do the the household survey, people ask who are you working or are you not? And that's how we develop an upcoming rate, which is a horrible way to do IT, by the way, but never might.

It's not that clear anymore. People I can are always kind of working and they always kind of not working. So that created dynamism and that creates also these big discrepancies environs measure of the government rates.

So that's the shadow work part. The shadow landing comes from the fact that for fifteen years now, we've been hammering banks with regulation and and restrictions on the landing they can do and of course, nature of board of vacuum. So someone stepped into that.

Now was private dead and private credit. If you look at the whole private det market is now bigger than the jung bone market. Uh, so we've added about two trillion dollars of credit to the economy. That doesn't show in in the book of the bank.

So that's why you can see, like a senior own officer said that, that tell you we tighten landing standards and then you see what everyone around the seas, which is this massive boom like there is no financing partner in U. S. Financial conditions are easy, but it's not coming from the banks.

And then the last part is what I call shadow says, uh, so again, here we had this completely iron. Newspapers at the fed publish couple of years. bags.

Excess savings have been depleted. They are not depleted. They still in the system. But more important than the excess saving is the well fact if you look at a household networks, so you take a households sector asset minus library in increased by forty four trillion since actually probably now we had fifty with truck shock. So let's say fifty trillion.

Now national the saving, right? The national saving in a year, we say the trillion. So that fifty two in increase in that world is fifty years of savings that we've added two people's a baLance sheet. So of course, it's onna have any effect and you add all these three and that creates this economy that just won slow vince.

in off the air. You used the expression recessions have been cancelled or a thesis that you have that recessions have been cancelled. How does this all fit into that? And what does that mean exactly? That recessions have been cancelled.

What army start maybe with the framework. So i'd like to use the credant framework, which a lot of other shops use gasca head on your exercise is inflation, on your y access is uh is growth uh and and you basically have four economic reasons you can be in strong growth. And inflation is infinitely boom.

Strong growth with inflation is this influence? boom. Strong inflation, no growth is that lation.

And then no deflation. Press recession is a deflationary bust. My impression is that with policy, we can always cancel one of these creators.

We can pick which one we going to be because we don't really have we we don't really control growth, uh, but we can avoid an outcome. And based on the experience of the past, policymakers will be biased towards avoiding a certain outcome. For example, out for a great depression, there was this kind of canadian moment in the U.

S. Like, okay, we cannot allow that to happen. We cannot have a deficience. We've seen what happened with with a great depression. And then we war two.

So after that, we had, after world war two, we had about the thirty four year period during which that the mix was somewhat inferior y basically avoiding that deflationary bust credant. And then after the grading fashion of the seventies, uh, we have the exact opposite memories. We so what happened with with Jimmy Carter, the malaysian america? They okay, no, no, we we can have sex ation and all of body.

I was now designed to avoid that quent. My impression is that after the two thousand times, which was basically an era of deficient bus globally, of excessive is al restrained uh, in effective military policy policy making exchange and now this is the one that we want to avoid. We want to avoid the deflationary bus. Uh, so the economy just keeps kind of going back and forth between the three other equators which are uh in facial boom, which I think is probably what we're getting into, didn't facially boom wished where we coming from and fashioned coming down and we had everything booming or finally, what I hope we can avoid. She's a that lation but the the last one who he is a deficient bus will never get there.

Uh because of of part of what I discuss, the the amount of exceptions, the wealth effect, the rise of the economy and then the fact that we running deficits of seven personal GDP at the of expansion and that we have a fed that starts cutting rate by fifty basis point when in our promoted rates at all time law and the stock Marks all time high. Uh, so we effectively made that impossible. And the investment implication that I see from this analysis is that you don't need long term treasurer in your portfolio.

So one thing I forgot to mention is that each of the great he is associated with one asset that does well, right, if you are, is in facial boom, uh, big tech growth stocks very well. Uh, if you have an infinitely boom, typically is gonna emerging markets. If you have sex, action is gonna go.

And commodities, if you have a deficient bus, is not to be treasury's. What if we don't have deficient bus? We don't need long term treasury's. And indeed, for the past four years, I mean, treasury's have really been indeed to wana said, you do want to try football now.

kenney and economists would say what you've just described is a Victory lap for counter cyclical stimulus policy. Government can impose policies that successfully avoid recessions, a for government, and a for government intervention in the economy. And then, of course, the austrian economists would say the opposite.

They would say it's a recipe for disaster because there is no free lunch. And although you can do those things in the short to intermediate term, they always come back to by you in the end, and you end up with a massive bust as a result of all of that policy eventually backfiring. I think about something like the way the australian government has been managing their housing boom.

And a lot of people said ten, fifteen years ago, look at what happened in the U. S. It's about to happen in australia.

Well, IT is, does the australian government get an a plus plus plus for keeping their housing boom going for fifteen years longer than anyone thought possible? Or or they have, they created peril for their people because a much bigger housing bus is coming and can't be avoided. The way of misses famously predicted that there was no avoiding the ultimate bust. Those are two opposite views, obviously from one misses and canes. What's the Vincent deu are view?

Probably a bit of both. Uh, but canes come before mis. Uh, and in the U. S. We can do canes for lot longer than more people can think. I think what you can have looted to IT, right you I mean, I love the australians. You know they are great, but you're not going to make money from trading.

It's got almost like A A moralistic aspect to IT like, oh this should not be happening therefore I want I mean this is not the way the world works. Things that should not be happening can keep happening for a long time, whether you like them or not. Um and ah it's possible that at the this all ends up with a with a giant bus a but in in the famous word of gains in the long term, in the long time we dead.

Um and I think in the U. S. We have this ability to run this sound of policies for much longer. The nation, I mean australia, I think part of IT oh, when you talk about ready state for australia and canada, you have two things to take into account.

One is, is the amount of chinese money that they get and to the immigration that they get that can really keep these things going, probably without these two forces, you would have seen indeed the bus of the canadian in the the australian housing market in the U. S. Yeah, we show the world reserve currency.

As long as the ball market lessons do IT, I think we can very, very easily run the deficit of seven personal GDP. By the way, seven percent of GDP is not that bad right now. I mean, we have, if you go with my view that true inflation is around four percent and real growth is that three percent, you want to have a sound person of GDP and you roll over, you existing that at three percent, you actually did average the economy. So I think them the canadian experiment can run uh for much longer than people can give you create for and trying to capitalize on this time of judgment day oh that finally the australians will be right and and the Prices will fall like crazy and and then the singers will a tone and will get flogged. Uh, is is again, it's a religious way of thinking about markets, not an economic one.

Vent, the third stonex intelligence report that you are are sharing with our listeners ers. And again, it's in the research round up email, you will find the links folks is called the five body problem. Now this one reads is if IT was something you wrote just after the election to kind of put the election in context, but this was actually written before the election, I think you just happened to get the calls right.

Tell us what this is about. Yes, so starts from the the famous three body problem, which is A A physics problem, if you, which pretty tells you how little we understand about the world, that if you have three objects about our bidding afterward became so chaotic that even with all the all the computing world in the world, you cannot predict where they going.

The three objects are going to be even though the the initial position, the velocity are known. So this is one of maybe a little humbling when we try to predict capital markets, which are the product of the interaction of the action of nine billion people animated by in a religion and um maybe personal freedom and ideologies. And so for south, our ability to predict is quite limited.

But I was I was trying to narrower down, at least on a macro IDE to five big questions, which which I think are the ones that matter before the election toison ics. This in matter today. So the first question is, a will the U.

S maintain this high level of growth that three percent of that i've been talking about uh to with the fed, stay behind the ball and maintain stablish as three, uh, will chinese stimulus be successful and turn things around? Four, will there be a red week at election? And five a with be an old shock and I think between, you know if you can answer these five questions correctly, you have the the macro ruby excute more less figured out uh, for what you score if I can tell you what my my guess is where uh, before the election.

So on the high lever of growth, this is been my view for several years now, no recession. And yes, this is kind of new proto. The only thing that I would add now is that i'm starting to be consensus and it's starting to bother me quite a bit.

And I love IT five months ago when everybody was looking to summer all and all these, you know crazy recession theory or before that one is about commercial real state or I mean, we had so many imagine recessions before. IT was very easy for me to be in the other camp. Now with the election of trump, I i've see the consensus shifting so rapid towards my camp.

And I think that that bar is moving like six months ago. All that you need is not to have a recession and you were ahead of the game. Now I think we need actually, actually dating growth for that to be true.

So I would still give, yes, I I believe the strong nominal growth, but I think that's getting more and more Price to the market. Uh, second question was, would the fit maintain established buyers? I mean, I don't know what you thought of last week press conference that I thought by well was quite dovish.

Shame you keep repeating that you know he thinks the the policy rate is restrictive and he wants to bringing down to neutral. Um I believe the policy rates accommodative. So every time he brings IT down to neutral, he may actually make IT more and more accommodative.

Will chinese stimulus n things around on data? I will turn to our mutual friend. We've a song gave. I think he's done the best work on on chinese economy. And I I tend to agree that, that this might be the real deal.

I believe there's a chance now that trump is elected that actually increases the impact is for the chinese due to get this team is going because they know that the trade road is probably not going to work. They're gonna facing a very aggressive, more nationalist U. S.

administration. So they really need to get their economy growing again. The red sweep, while we already had IT, right, we had the republicans winning, I think now is confirmed of congress as well as well.

Uh, so that will have the answer. And then I will have been an all shock so far, no, or is actually sold off on on the news of the election. We kind of the bottom that sixty five to seventy five train range.

So if I put everything together that, that still A A pretty favorable environment for stocks. And I don't like to say that because I realized that stocks aren't same expensive, the running three percent every day. I accused the sharper tio of the S M P.

Five hundred for the best years around three. So he doesn't feel good to and be be long stock. But if you just look at the macro o stuff, you have to say that things are unfolding in a way that is bush for stocks.

Vince, I agree with you that our mutual friend Lewis does can't pronounce in french as well as you can, but li does terrific work on china. Let's get your perspective though on china and maybe brought in that to other international assets. Where is the U. S.

Dollar headed? I'm sure you're familiar with kind of the luke rowen versus print Johnson debate about how this this whole dollar situation plays out. Does a strength in or does that we can? How do you see that going? How do you see china playing into IT? Is the china recovery finally going to be realized? sea?

Yes, I gently. I think i'm more in the a song look, grow and camp over the long term, but I could certain see the brand john scalia playing in the short term, which have dollar, dollar days long straight up on china. There seems to be A A big disappointment moment right now.

H we when the city announcing september, we saw the get ready about fifty percent. Now we've traced a bit more than half of these games and the consensus that seems to be that they it's just a fate that they tried many times before. And the the kind of policy the announce are are are not strong enough for for the the problem that is face.

I think that perspective is is bias by a lack of understanding of how china works. I think there is this this view that one of her he says happens right away that china is this stuff dictatorship, which to some extent is, but it's a formal dictatorship. It's one that you still have.

Even in china, there is a political cycle. You if you want a pass policy, you need to get in through the congress. And that meeting happens in the december. And yes, maybe you you flash out the policy goals at the police meeting. IT takes A A couple months to get announce.

So the fact that they have not announced anything substantial since subsidy doesn't mean that it's not gonna happen and just means that they following in their own calendar, uh, there is also probably a strategic reason for them not to anne. Something to prematurity is the poker game that they play with the U. S.

They want to see what truth going to do on the terrorists, and they want to target their response based on what trm does. Uh so again, that more that argues probably more for something that's postponed rather than non existent. And then um another element that I think people miss is the extent to which china decentralized, uh, it's not just beijing decided.

I mean, most of government spending happens happens at the local government level, which is why you look at the latest initiative, which is a that swap for local governments. Yeah, the amount was a bit disappointing. But the the the direction is right.

If we want to similar the economy, you need to a did average local government and give them the means to similar economy. So there's nothing in what I see that suggests the chinese similar is not going to happen. Uh, this could be a if you follow the two thousand eights U S.

analog. Um we had the stimulus. We start up with a bad and tall sell all the big policy measures where and undertaken by october, november, december. And yet the market did not bottom until, I think, march nine or march three.

So he looks about five months between the moment when the government said, okay, we form the kitchen to get the problem, and seeing the actual bottom, the stock market, we may see the same thing in china where you actually see you kind of bottom out now and you see the final bottom. Maybe I would guess I will be around the inauguration of ballot trump, uh, when you see the tfp, and then this is when you know everybody y's completely given up on china, oh, the places are investable the tariff, blah. Ba, this could be the time when you actually see this kind of secular bottom for chinese equity.

So I would advise for some, some patients day and and then the the follow on to that is if we see a successful chinese stimulus h that's always be very good news for a south korea donec, a malaysia, a lot of in america, a of middle east as well. So you could see the successful china stim s kind of drag along uh, international assets, which have been one of the the long suffering trades right for fifteen years now. You've seen the us. Outperform non us talks by ten percent year, I suspect, while getting close to the end of that period, partly because of that show is similar, partly because of the end of the japanese Carry trade and partly because of the sad who you kind of done with rate hikes and is telling us that they actually want to be behind the world, behind the covering.

something i've started to look at in the much longer time frame with regard to china is nuclear energy adoption in the west. We finally figured out that nuclear energy always has been the safest, cleanest, Greenest way to make energy.

But boy, you know, in democracy, you have to pay for the the wonderful value of democracy by taking the time IT takes to reach agreement and consensus before you invest in something as controversialist nuclear energy, china has the benefit of paid. We don't need to get the approval of anybody. We just do what we want.

And china is at least ten or fifteen years ahead of the west on all things nuclear. On the conventional side, china has more planned proposed reactors than the entire U. S. fleet. On the advanced nuclear side, china has built the only thorium fueled multi salt reactor since the one that was built at the ukraine national laboratory in the nineteen sixties on all of the other advanced nuclear technologies, whether its high temperature gas called reactors for energy transition and hydrogen production and so forth. They are doing everything now that we're just starting to have a democratic debate about what could this mean long term in terms of chinese economic and eventually military dominant.

I think you spotted on I mean, the work you have done on these issues is remarkable and I think only true on the market sense, but um essential in the policy level because these other questions that will matter in the next twenty thirty years, what decision are we made today to prepare for that?

And indeed, nucleus, one of them IT IT could be at that nuclear is at the same moment where you rockets were with iron before we are IT on and and space x um you know sending rockets, uh you know cost a lot of money, had to be run by the government uh and and there was not much in terms of improvement. And that's kind of the western approach to nuclear energy, right? We're going to commission one giant plant uh and of course it's gonna of money because everything you build once you have to start from squash every time.

Um but what the chinese seem to be doing is kind of what you know of spaces is doing SpaceX is doing to rock is like listen instead of like building individual rockets and spends s so much money every time. Maybe we can do IT a bit smaller and maybe we can actually we use that and as a result, shrink the the producing cost by a factor of eighty ninety percent. And I think that's what's happening in china.

So I at the base, you have the the the the physical advantage of nuclear, eric, which is high energy density than any other form. But then if you added to IT, the economies of scale are being able to replicate the same design and doing a smaller scale. Um yeah you do have um what I think is the solution to um the really the biggest economic problem, which is how do you generate cheap, reliable, consistent power we wish to do to power .

your economy well, then said I can't thank you enough for a horrific interview but before I let you go please tell our listeners a little bit more about what you do is stone age. I'm sure they are going to enjoy these three courtesy reports which again are linked in the research round up email for people who want to get those more frequently. Do you have to be an institutional investor? What do you do? How do you sign up?

So um if you go to my twitter handle at Vincent V I N C E N T W R G L U A R D 啊， is a pink tweet. Under the pink tweet, there is a link, uh, to register for a sign up on my research. Uh, it's three.

Uh, you get a two months trial. Uh, you can always, dm, me and you know we can maybe a considering extension. Uh, I try to in answer as many conversation as I get on twitter because i've run a lot from from twitter and very smart people there. So that's the the public facing side. And then if you're institution, the easier thing you can do is be a kind of stone x i'm a lot of your listing is already are we very big on on futures, uh, security, commodities as well? Uh so if you already have a stone next account, just ask your reply.

I would like to get with some stuff uh, or send me an email directly Vincent ent that deal that don't next not come and i'll make sure to share my latest reports, presentation, website hours uh, and then if none of these things work for you, pocket think this is really been a fantastic way to have conversation with very smart people. And I I keep doing IT every time I do IT, I keep learning things. And I hope to to do IT again soon.

Patrick resident, I will be back as macrovoice continues right here at mr. Voices that come.

Now back to your hosts, eric towns and Patrick serez. A .

eric, great to have Vincent back on the show. Before we dive into the chart tech, you said you wanted to share some perspectives on the newsroom low from the trump team since the election. What's on your mind? Well.

first of all, I strongly recommend pepper mill grants view from last week for anyone who missed IT. I agree with peppers view that who just won the election was the populist movement over the establishment. I really don't think this was about trump and Harris.

I think IT was about the american people saying enough to the establishment and voting in favor of the populist movement, which mr. Trump is still heading in his first term. Trump was obviously in way over his head, allowing donors to choose his cabinet for him, resulting in trump being surrounded by neocon who undermined his campaign agenda.

Rather than advancing IT, he had four years to think about his mistakes, figure out that he had the wrong team and come back prepared. Okay, so the question is prepared for what? What was he planning to do if reelected? Well, we just found out in the last week, in my opinion, president elect trumped is not selecting a cabinet here. He's selecting generals to go to all out war with the establishment so called deep state.

Elon musk in vivax ramos wami have been brutally clear in their numerous interviews that theyve done in the last week that their intention is to literally try and fire more than half of all government employees, eliminating entire departments and agencies, and intentionally taking actions designed to provoke tens of thousands of government employees to quit in discussed over their policies. Trump then announced tosi gabbard as director of national intelligence. Now Frankly, the only thing I can think of that would have been more effective if his goal was to directly and intentionally provoke a our battle between the intelligence community and the due troops.

Administration would be if he had perhaps pledge to pardon Edward snowden and make him the DNA. The message to me is Crystal clear. Trumps intention is to take the gloves off and go to war with the so called deep state agencies, the drain the swamp and expose what's living beneath the surface.

Monta of trump s first term in office has apparently been replaced with a new agenda to vapor ize the swap and killed everything in IT, with relatively little concern for the collateral damage that occurs along the way. The last time any president came remotely close to waging war with the intelligence community was when president Kennedy threaten to quote, smash the C. I.

A. And to a thousand pieces that didn't end very well for him. Trump has signaled in his first week as president elect that his intentions are to be far more aggressive and provocative and engaging the deep state then Kennedy ever was. This means that the establishment wings of both parties are likely to turn against trump. Vivox coments about firing every governments employee with a social security number ending in an odd number are certain to provoke immense animosity with most government employees.

So the bottom line is I see IT is that to whatever degree there was resistance to trump taking office from the establishment wings of both parties and from the devout democrats and tie a people and so forth that didn't like him, whatever IT was that they were going to resist with, I think it's just quite dropped based on the announcement that have been made in the last week. The existence there is an existential threat to senior, entrenched members of the intelligence community that have been in their jobs for decades. And that means that for trumps enemies, absolutely anything is now on the table.

Articles of impeachment could come before congress on january twenty first, one day after he takes office. Um the odds of the democrats refusing to certify the election results probably just increased dramatically in the last week as they got a sense of what he's intending all of the law fair options including the twenty fifth medical ton and somehow trying to claim that he was not eligible to serve, which probably for the reasons pippa malGrace described in last week interview might have come off the table because boy, you know he won by such a land slide. Pepper said.

Maybe, maybe they were gone to fight this, but after that landslide, it's kind of hard to fight IT. Well, they just got a whole bunch of instead to fight IT. Anyway, at least that's the way i'm reading the tea leaves here.

So while we had to read sweep and the republicans are going to control both chAmbers of congress, and that doesn't mean that maga republicans are going to be in charge of all that. The democrats are going to try to cut a deal with establishment republicans who are threatened as much as they are by trump and say, look, we're got to work together to get rid of this guy. Bottom line, what I see and store for markets is a whole lot more uncertainty and volatility in terms of trades. I'm starting to think about strategies to exploit underPriced latisse stratos long fixed trades, that sort of thing.

It's very hard to dispute that he's putting together a team to shake up the establishment. You will be very interesting to see in the next few months to see how the establishment pushes back. Now let's get to that chart tech listeners.

You're going to find a download link for the postgame chartered in your research round up email. If you don't have a research rounded up IT means you have not yet registered at macrovoice stock com. Just go to our home page macrovoice 点 com and click on the red button over Vincents pictures saying， looking for the downloads now, eric, let's cover crude oil.

E, I, A. Inventory was delayed by the U. S. Veterans day holiday this week, so we don't have any statistics for you. We ve got back down to the low end of the trading range to a sixty six handle in the last couple of days, back up to mid sixty eight handlers and recording here early on thursday morning.

Given how boldly president elect trumps other policy moves have been, I don't rule out an extreme move uh, or say some kind of deal with mohamedan salmon to manage Prices lower, at least initially after taking office, in order to kind of prove himself to the american people is is doing something biden couldn't. So I could see IT going that way. I could also see a big escalation of geopolitical risk taking at the other way. Bottom line, i'm flat here. I don't see any attractive directional trades unless you have inside information that I don't have.

Well, ever, i'm just onna give of a simple technical assessment. The Price action remains distributed. The primary downturn is down, that the sending trend lines are attacked below all moving averages, all raley fail.

That is incredibly distributive, embarrased Price action. Now we are trading at a key support line throughout september and october. The laws were establish at this Price lever.

And so we have a primary downtrend trading IT along a key support line. And those the laws also were the laws that were established back in may of last year, including november red in december of last year. So we're at A A key Price level where a lot of laws have coming.

So if this level and the support line gives out, which is entirely possible, that would open the window for decline down into the low sixties, down to even sixty two or sixty on the downside, trying to give the bulls the benefit, doubt that the support line will hold. But again, the primary trends are down. So if that support line gives out another ten percent decline in crude oil is entirely on the table. Now let's move on to equities.

What's your thoughts here? The initial reaction to the election result was clearly positive, but now the rally has pauses as markets absorb the news of just how extreme trumps cabinet picks are going to be and what their stated intentions are about what they plan to do when they take office.

So I really don't know what's going to come next year, but I think we need to watch carefully at the continuing news flow out of team trump and understand where they are planning to take this administration. And are they really intending to be as brutal as elan and viva e ramos'? I seem to be talking well .

over over last months or so. We were so close to the six thousand level IT was ultimately the election results added the clarity in the tail win for the market to make this birth to that round number of six thousand. There are measured moves that up to sixty two hundred plus on the upside.

So there is still room for this market to go higher here. The momentum is clearly in the bull's favor, and there are A A zero sign of distribution. So one has to approach this with the assumption that the bulls are in control of this trend and the momentum in their favor and follows through and flows are likely to support that, at least for the short term.

My view is that at this stage, this market can easily continue in these prevAiling trends of things that have been working will continue to work right up into the us. thanksgiving. At some point, the all the flows and rotation that was happening to drive this will I have fully played out in the market will reach an exhAusting point.

But there is zero sign that we have reached that level. So we have to respect these prevAiling trends, the patterns of higher, higher, higher lows, trend lines above moving averages are still very much in play. And so we'll see where the exhaustion points come.

But right now, I have to give the bulls a Better and a double. We're going going to see how far they can take this. Let's move on to the dollar index.

So what do you thought here? Well, the big news I was going to report on this week's pod class was a boy, the dick. I took out one of six to the upside. Can we get to one or seven by next week?

Well, just in the last few hours before I went to record where had one of six spot, nine twenty five right now in the december contract, i'm going to call that close enough to call IT a test of one or seven. We're going to break through one or seven and we head IT all the way back to one sixteen, which was the the prior cycle high, I don't know, but this is gonna get interesting. Let's see where this market takes us.

The momentum doesn't quit. We're trading back to the two thousand and twenty three hours. What's now been a two year trade range and the momentum isn't even slowing now.

We are literally trading at the time of recording you're the one was seven level, uh, which is essentially the highs of this range. I mean, without this kind of momentum, if the balls can somehow miraculously break IT out of this trade range ah that opens huge upside window. Uh and my initial thinking always is that these resistance levels should.

At least temporary style Price action in active, some form of resistance. But the momentum has been so strong going into this, i'll be very interesting to see whether the bulls can break this. So on page five, I have the euro USD, and I put her on a weekly charge so we can really see this on the reciprocal that dollar index.

And you can see that breakdown in the euro is so distinct. We're right back down to the one or five level again, you know, a two year low. And and this is going to be a very important line in the sand.

Either the euro can must drop a bounce off this level or will be the driver of a big us dollar break out. This is clearly the currency cross, and therefore, this is the one to watch. And this one of five level is just critical on this.

And again, like I was saying to the dollar, this is a level where you should technically anticipate a bounce. It's so oversold on the euro coming right into a very key support line, at least in reaction or a pause should happen here. And if IT doesn't, IT just will tell you how strong that momentum is. And then certainly, that could create some incredibly volunteer events. Now let's move on to gold, where there's been that extraordinary move, and i'd love to get your thoughts on this.

There's no doubt in my mind that what's happening here is a rotation out of gold and into bitcoin and by bitcoin. For anyone who missed IT hit new all time hides this week as gold dropped like a rock. I see the view that Vincent dr.

Expressed in the future interview that trump is just playing politics and paying lip service to what the cypher crowd wants to hear as a distinct possibility. That might be the explanation here. IT might be just tell them them what they want to hear and then back to business as usual.

But the crypt to committee pipe dream has always been to create a new money system that would compete with, and then eventually displays government issued money, democratizing money itself, so that no government can control IT. Now, the central thesis is of my twenty eighteen book, beyond blockchain. Was that, well, that sounded great to libertarians. The reality of the situation was that major governments that the people with all the guns in the handcuffs would never allow privately correct money, whether IT be crypto or otherwise, to take away their monopoly on the issuance of money and the ability to control its supply through government controlled monetary policy.

That's where the most entrenched powerful people um that exist in the world gain their power is from the ability to do things like control the money supply through monetary policy but if ever there was a government that just might allow or even encourage the replacement of government issued money with decentish zed digital currency that no government has direct control over, well, IT might be a government where elon mosk for vake rea swami were apparently just given the Green light to fire more than half of the current government employees. Now remember, elan is a big crypto fan in one of his favorite crypto currency seems to be dodge coin. Is IT a coincidence that the new department of government efficiency has the same name as e land's favor crypto currency?

Now to be clear, I don't think that president trump has any idea what the implications are of encouraging widespread script currency adoption as a sanctioned alternative to government issued money. One of president trumps other objectives that he's been very pratic about is he says that we absolutely need to safeguard the U. S.

dollars. Role is the global reserve currency. I don't think president trump understands that those two goals are diametrically opposed, but the people he's putting in on his cabinet seem like the kind of people who might just favor such a move.

As I said earlier, I don't think president trumps bowled the agenda of firing half the government. Going to all out war with the establishment wings of both parties is going to see anything but the strongest possible resistance and opposition from most of the government. And I don't rule out the possibility that mister trump will never be sworn in for a second term despite his landslide Victory in the election.

The stakes have never been higher for the entrenched powers in washington, so their response will be equally forceful and dramatic. Coming back to gold, if we saw a governance sanctioned popularization of bitcoin, IT could be very, very bearish for gold at least. Additionally, now central banks around the world would continue to favor or gold rather than bitcoin, but the Price trans in gold and bitcoin since the election speak for themselves.

And if the bitcoin momentum continues beyond one hundred thousand dollars, that could easily cause the last gold bug standing to eat their losses and chase the bitcoin train, instead moving onto the technicals in gold. Just before the european markets opened on thursday morning, we were sitting right on the hundred day moving average at twenty five sixty at two five six zero, which was also the twenty one week moving average. And to my eye, what's kind of a maker break line? An important one.

Twenty six hundred should have been trending support and that should have been good, at least for a significant bounce. But the market just went through IT like IT was melted butter. So and that's a trend line that's been in place since last dribble. Ry, we didn't even get a bounce there. So if you're feeling lucky, you know right here is we're dipping now after you're up open.

We dipped all the way down to IT, just over twenty five forty I think the number is two, five, four two um is the lowest print I see in my screen as i'm recording about half after the european and opened five thirty on thursday morning um IT looks like we're down twenty five forty two is the low if you're feeling lucky I was your dip below the hundred day will close above the hundred day by the time thursday is over because boy, that such A A clear line in the sand it's got a hold. If IT doesn't hold, then there's probably some fib support fiba I support around twenty well twenty five hundred to twenty five twenty. If twenty five hundred even doesn't hold, I think it's a fast ride down to twenty four hundred at the two hundred day moving average.

And if that doesn't hold anything possible after that, the reason i'm going out of my way to intentionally mention these targets that are hundreds of dollars below the market is I think that if there is a government change of attitude where all the sudden crypto currency is welcome and the trump administration is issuing executive orders saying we're going to be to the crypto community and we're going to have a strategic bitcoin reserve and so forth, if they really followed through on those things, I think IT could be a really, really damaging to gold. Bottom line, there's more uncertainty in this market than anything else. I certainly regret not following my own instinct.

I said here on macrovoice two weeks before the election, I don't understand why everybody is so bullish on gold if trump wins. I think you could make the opposite argument more persuasively. I said that, but but I didn't hedged my position nearly as much as I should have, and it's been a painful right down.

In any case, i'll be watching what happens here with the hundred day moving average as i'm recording. We're still below IT. A close above before the end of the day on thursday would be a refreshing symbol that maybe we're going to put the bottom in here. If IT keeps going in south from here. I think we really need to be careful in terms of what comes next.

Eric, i'm just trying to keeps this far more simple. You look back to the preelection goal Price. The sentiment was so bullish, everybody was in clear consensus.

Gold could do no wrong and only had upside. IT was a upsides trade that was due for some sort of A A correction to shake out weekend and and over leverage traders. So with this a short term high, we've now fifty percent retrace the rally since the summer.

And uh, giving back half of the gains is actually a typical replacment. But now we are actually at a very key line in the sand. The August, september consolidation that happened in the twenty five hundred area that was at the time a key uh high is now going to act as potentially support the key feminine retraced levels right at this twenty five hundred level.

And so this is a very logical place for of the short term downturn to at least pause in of a reaction something that could easily bounce one hundred plus dollars and ounce off of these support lines will IT. And that's the big question. mean.

So you can see the dollars at these extreme level, so many of these markets at these extreme points and and and IT feels very much like either all of them are going to react or none of them are. And if none of them, mr, with these prevAiling trends keep accelerating at some point, is gonna become a market disruption. And and so right now, we're at a critical support.

Let's see if IT holds in the next fifty dollars. Now moving on, eric. I wanted to touch on page seven on the copper Price.

Now copper was trading along as fifty day, moving over right along a retracement zone, a logical place that if there was going to be a bull continuation pattern, IT would have acted like a key support around that foreign quarter area. And this week that the feet just got cut out from underneath the copper balls. And when that key support level was given out, IT was like a drop straight down right to the August lows.

This is now a reengaged, a prevAiling downtrend that was in place for may till the summer. Now we are approaching the August low, which often can offer a support. But if we see that this the balls don't rebound this in any meaningful way, we may find ourselves right back into the two thousand and twenty three, two thousand and twenty four trade ranges, which were in that kind of three, seventy five to four dollar area.

And so there could be still further downside in going into the tail end of this year. Now eric, let's move on to uranium. And what are your thoughts here?

A huge amount of bullish news flow came out of the sector this week. Six more signatories, countries signed on to the triple nuclear pledge. This started at the cop twenty eight conference in dubai last year, where twenty two nations initially signed on to triple nuclear energy globally by twenty fifty six more countries signed on at the top twenty nine conference that was just held this week.

So I see this is really important because we're seeing more and more government consensus around nuclear being the solution to climate change, which has spent a lot of government's obsession. What they need to figure out next, and i'm doing everything I can to try to get audiences with them, is to to recognize that government is absolutely needs to get involved. Clearing the way for the adoption of advanced nuclear technologies.

We're got to ditch these light water reactor antis, which is still the technology everybody's using because of government bureaucracy being unable to regulate much newer and Better designs. And when i'm talking about much newer, i'm saying we got to ditch the nineteen fifties nuclear technology in favor of much, much Better stuff like late nineteen sixties technology. Um these problems and nuclear engineering were solved a long time ago.

We never adopted them because the governments around the world have been standing in the way of progress. It's time to recognize that the solution to climate change and energy transition is to fast track the adoption of advanced nuclear technologies. I think that this continued support of the triple nuclear pledge and more countries signing on is paving the way for some countries around the world to finally stand up to the united states and say, sexy one twenty three has to go.

It's time to get serious about advancing nuclear technology and not staying stuck on one thousand nine hundred fifteen technology. Sorry for the editorial, their folks, but I I really think this is important to the future of humanity. Next news item in video that is the A I guys um they've made some kind of deal with the diablo anion nuclear facility, which was scheduled for shutdown.

They're resurrecting IT. Now nuclear facilities have to be air gapt for security reasons to protect them from terrorism and so forth. In video wants to put their AI inside the nuclear power plants.

So it's not air gap. They won't be on the internet, but they will be A I Operating inside an old school. One thousand and fifty technology nuclear plant. I don't quite understand what the angle is there, but certainly big nuclear announcements are coming out every day.

Now tripling nuclear is going to require a ten x on enrichment and capacity, according to orono, one of the biggest enrich ing and reprocessing Operators of french company. We don't have IT. Most of the a enrich ment capability is in russia.

And casey stan, there's a huge need to build IT here, and there's a huge opportunity to build more. State of kentucky just announced a new development authority to plan how kentucky is going to adopt nuclear. Yet despite all of this massively bullish new's flow f three uranium, which is a terrific exploration play, uh, great stocking.

I don't know of any significant adverse news to explain. IT just requested the september six lows. I don't know.

I got twenty even, but IT was twenty and a half sense. I bought a bunch more this morning at twenty one sense. Um that's a fantastic deal, is the only stock I see.

It's really retraced that september six low and it's a strong buy here. So why are we seeing these bargains in uranium miners, especially an exploration play, which is a more speculative play about the future, is opposed to current cash flow. When there's so much news telling us the uranium m demand will be increasing in coming years, fundamentals couldn't be stronger and we're seeing buying opportunities.

Uh, anyway, why are we seeing them? Because there seems to be a buyer strike in the physical market. The utilities are holding out, delaying their purchases or something, hoping they're gone to get a big trend reversal.

I don't think they're going to the fundamentals are too strong. Um I think that, that there's gonna a hold out and wait talk of war and I think the utilities are gona lose and the uranium Prices will eventually move sharply higher. Right now though, there seems to be a buyer strike and in my opinion, that's what's holding back a big move higher in uranium related issues.

We are saying a few of them really take off things like new scale. Take our smr. A boy after were going public around ten box.

They were down to two bucks there, almost twenty six this morning. So some of those nuclear startups are really taking off. Uranium will catch up as soon as the spot market catches up. And I think that's just a matter of resolving this fires .

strike while the story in the post election period about the things that are working versus the things that are left behind and or just a treading water. And in initially, I thought that uranium might get some tail when in not a post election period, but that's clearly not been the case at this stage. This is a market that has been relatively inactive and ignored on the shorter.

Now obviously, uranium equities have done much Better, but when we're talking about spot Prices, uranium, the uranium trust and other things like this IT really hasn't gotten any flows and so be really interesting to see whether this support line holds its a very logical area for for uranium uh the u three o eight kind of settle these Prices. But bottom line, there isn't any prevAiling trends here. And I would assume, at least on the short term that this will continue as most of the money flow uh, going around is just chasing what has been working.

Finally, erica, I just wanted to touch on the big coin chart. I do not have too much technically to say beyond the fact that it's been an extraordinary breakout. I mean, we had a huge bull run between two thousand and twenty three in the first quarter of two thousand and twenty four went from like twenty five, seventy plus thousand.

And then we went through what was basically a six months dead zone trade range. And clearly, this republican administration has woke in this up. Now, uh, if we look at the rules of symmetry and use that as projecting tools, uh, this does measure all the way to one hundred thousand.

And that's been a huge psychological level that a lot of the crypto community has been targeting. Now this move to ninety plus thousand has happened a little too quickly. And so there's always room for things to pause and consolidate, but you have to give the bulls a banner for the doubt that even if we did seh two to five or even ten thousand dollar dip, IT will be bought on dip, and the primary trend will be up.

Will we get that deep of a deep like a test back toward a fifty day moving averages as approaching higher at some point the rally we will get checked. But at this stage are some uh uh new life has been um put into this. And assuming that this is already over as to premature at this stage, measure moves are up to hundred thousand, and let's see whether the bulls can pull IT off.

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