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cover of episode MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

2025/1/30
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Macro Voices
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Rory Johnston: 2025年油市将面临新的挑战，尤其是特朗普的政策可能会对市场产生重大影响。2024年油市波动性减少，价格波动范围变小，预计2025年油价将逐渐上涨，可能会达到80美元左右的布伦特油价。特朗普的政策可能会通过增加美国产量或实施关税来影响油市，但其效果取决于多种因素。加拿大是美国的重要油源，难以被替代，尤其是美国的炼油厂需要加拿大的重油来保持经济效益。如果特朗普对加拿大和墨西哥油实施关税，将会对油市产生重大影响，可能会导致加拿大、美国炼油商和美国消费者之间的成本分担。此外，特朗普的政策可能会导致加拿大寻求其他出口途径，如建设新的管道。美国的页岩油生产商可能无法提供足够的重油来替代加拿大的供应，因此特朗普的政策可能会对油市产生复杂的影响。

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MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Rory Johnston. They discuss everything crude oil - from the current fundamental landscape and the impact of Trump’s tariff policies to why crude quality remains crucial and where refineries can source the heavy blend stock needed to process U.S. shale oil. https://bit.ly/42z5yIQ)

⚫ Follow Rory on X: @Rory_Johnston)

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