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MacroVoices #484 Rory Johnston: Crude Oil Forward Curve Conundrum
2025/6/12
Macro Voices
E
Erik Townsend
一名从软件企业家转变为对冲基金经理的专家，通过播客和写作分享市场和经济见解。
P
Patrick Ceresna
知名金融播客主持人和分析师，专注于宏观经济和金融市场分析。
R
Rory Johnston
Erik Townsend: 我注意到WTI远期曲线出现前所未有的怪异形态，特别是从现货溢价突然转变为期货升水，这让我感到困惑。我和Rory都对此感到不解，但我们会尽力给出一些有根据的猜测。我做多Z5空M6的时间价差交易，希望期货升水最终能转回现货溢价。
Rory Johnston: 我也认为目前的曲线形态非常奇怪，布伦特原油的曲线形态更是前所未有。曲线前端呈现极端的现货溢价，但远期却出现期货升水，这种并置非常罕见。我认为这反映了市场对未来供应宽松的预期与当前市场仍然相对紧张的现实之间的辩论。市场预计到9月份，OPEC+可能会恢复全部的250万桶/日的减产，导致供应宽松。但我一直强调，远期或期货曲线并非石油市场的共识预测，而是市场现状的实际反映。从基本面来看，供需平衡和预测都偏向看跌，但市场表现却并非如此。
Deep Dive
The WTI forward curve shows an unprecedented shape, with steep backwardation in the near term and contango further out. Experts are puzzled by this, as it doesn't align with typical market behavior or clear fundamental drivers. The situation is complicated by factors such as geopolitical events and fluctuating Chinese demand.
- Unprecedented shape of WTI forward curve: steep backwardation followed by contango
- Confusion among experts about the curve's shape and underlying reasons
- Influence of geopolitical events (Iran) and fluctuating Chinese demand
Shownotes Transcript