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MacroVoices #486 David Rosenberg: Navigating Choppy Waters
2025/6/26
Macro Voices
D
David Rosenberg
E
Eric Townsend
P
Patrick Ceresna
知名金融播客主持人和分析师，专注于宏观经济和金融市场分析。
David Rosenberg: 市场对地缘政治风险的降低、关税协议的达成以及经济前景的乐观预期，推动了股市上涨。然而，我对这些因素的看法与市场存在差异。我认为，以色列和伊朗之间的冲突远未结束，关税的影响可能被市场低估，而美国经济正面临衰退的风险。此外，市场对美联储降息的预期可能过于乐观。由于市场估值过高，且与债券市场的风险溢价为零，我对股市持谨慎态度，更看好债券市场。我认为，投资者应该关注基本面，而不是被短期新闻和情绪所左右。我目前的投资策略是降低股票参与度，增加对债券的配置，并持有黄金作为对冲工具。
Deep Dive
David Rosenberg discusses his concerns about the current market optimism, contrasting it with his own bearish outlook. He points to high valuations, a potential recession, and the possibility of renewed geopolitical tensions as key risks.
- Market believes in a positive outlook despite potential risks.
- Rosenberg holds a bearish view on the market.
- High market multiples are unsustainable with high risk-free interest rates.
- Potential recession and renewed geopolitical tensions are key concerns.
Shownotes Transcript