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D
David
波士顿大学电气和计算机工程系教授，专注于澄清5G技术与COVID-19之间的误信息。
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Jeff Park
David: 我认为特朗普政府的政策导致加密货币与宏观市场出现重大交汇,甚至超过了新冠疫情的影响。特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和中国的关税政策,是美国货币和财政政策的逻辑结论,最终会导致10年期国债收益率极低和美元贬值,从而利好比特币及风险资产。
Jeff Park: 关税会造成市场混乱,而比特币在混乱中反而会蓬勃发展,因为比特币能够提供稳定性。关税还会导致财政赤字增加,加速美元贬值,从而利好比特币。财政赤字会降低主权债务人的信用评级,而比特币则被视为规避全球货币体系风险的工具。关税具有经济上的浪费性,会导致财政赤字问题,并可能导致通货膨胀和美元贬值。特朗普的目标是通过多边协议削弱美元,这类似于广场协议2.0。广场协议2.0的目标是通过多边协议削弱美元,类似于1985年的广场协议,以应对美元过强对美国经济造成的挑战。特朗普的关税政策可能是为了达成削弱美元的多边协议的谈判工具。特朗普真诚地希望将美国的制造业和工业产能回流美国,并希望降低10年期国债收益率。目前全球环境比八年前更加混乱,中国也比八年前更弱,这使得美国处于更有利的地位。下一步将是类似广场协议2.0的全球协调行动,以降低美元汇率。特朗普的目标是降低10年期国债收益率,因为这有利于他的房地产投资。美国财政部实际上控制着长期利率,而美联储只能控制短期利率。特里芬悖论是指美元既是美国本国货币,又是全球储备货币,这导致美国需要持续的财政赤字以满足全球对美元的需求。特里芬悖论导致美元过强,这不利于美国经济。特朗普的目标是降低10年期国债收益率,这将利好比特币和其他风险资产。 特朗普对加密货币的积极态度并非巧合,因为他理解他的政策将有利于比特币的价格。特朗普最初反对比特币,可能是因为他更重视受监管的房地产资产。但现在他可能已经意识到,比特币和房地产可以形成互补的投资组合。比特币与风险资产在短期内存在相关性,但在长期内则趋于脱钩。比特币的波动性是其主要价值主张,因此当传统市场出现剧烈波动时,比特币也会出现剧烈波动,因为投资者会将资金转移到更安全的资产。从长期来看,比特币与风险资产的相关性较低,因为比特币的价格取决于人们交易的意愿,而不是任何价值模型。由于比特币ETF的推出,投资者现在可以通过比特币工具进行杠杆投资,这可能会减少对山寨币的需求。狗狗币的去中心化程度很高,并且其社区文化对加密货币行业有积极作用,因此Bitwise申请狗狗币ETF。狗狗币ETF的获批将代表加密货币行业跨越了一个新的文化门槛。
supporting_evidences
We're recording this episode on the back of Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China.
Absolutely. They're connected at a very intuitive sense.
Sure. So a fiscal deficit is a way to gauge the credit worthiness of a sovereign backer.
So ultimately, tariffs are creating deficits because at the core of it, tariffs are wasteful.
In your article, Jeff, you wrote, "Recognize that tariffs are an often a temporary negotiation tool to achieve a goal."
Sure. So most of the monetary system as you and I know it, and the current generation has been a world in which the dollar has been backed by the words of the US government,
There are a few people who believe these tariffs might be a permanent fixture of the economic landscape going forward.
I think Trump is extremely sincere about several things.
I think what's different now is the picture has become clearer in the direction and the tailwind of the mood of the world,
Yeah. So I think the next game is, and it's not going to be tomorrow, it's not going to be next week, but I do think there is going to be a globally coordinated Plaza Accord 2.0 type of event.
You said in your article, I have shared before that Trump's number one goal is to lower the 10-year yield rate,
Yeah, it is the reality that the Fed and the Treasury work together to enact one agenda for American dollar and foreign policy.
Can you explain that a little bit more? So let's go back to the Triffin dilemma.
And that is actually the core of the problem.
Yeah. So many people today are concerned about the path dependencies and the second and third order effects of what these tariffs are going to do and how China is going to respond and yada, yada, yada.
Do you think that this is why Bitcoin has become just like living in Donald Trump's brain?
Yeah, this is a fascinating question.
But let's talk about and really just precisely talk about risk assets generally.
Yeah, I think everyone has imagined one day that Bitcoin would be untethered from correlation to our risk assets as we know it.
But it's only really those extreme movements and not the down 1%, down 50 bips types of market.
Yeah, I
I love my altcoin bags as much as the crypto bro next door.
Yeah. At the most simple sense, Doge is as decentralized as any asset could come from the construct of what we want to think about the ethos of crypto.
Yeah, yeah, I couldn't agree more.
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