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cover of episode Why Bubbles are Good | Byrne Hobart

Why Bubbles are Good | Byrne Hobart

2024/12/18
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B
Byrne Hobart
D
David Hoffman
专注于AI和区块链融合的专家,但具体信息不详。
R
Ryan Sean Adams
以创新方式推动加密货币和区块链教育的播客主持人和投资者。
Topics
Byrne Hobart:本书的核心论点是,经济泡沫并非总是坏事,有些泡沫甚至推动了技术进步和社会发展。他认为,在短暂的时间内,人们对世界运作方式的特定变化充满信心,这会促使人们进行高风险投资,从而推动一些只有在泡沫时期才可能诞生的技术或组织结构的出现。他以人工智能为例,说明了技术突破与资本投入之间的相互依赖关系。他还指出,并非所有泡沫都是好的,有些泡沫是社会停滞的产物,例如房地产泡沫。 Byrne Hobart还讨论了比特币的案例,认为比特币的多次泡沫推动了其生态系统的进步,并使其逐渐发展成为一种实际的货币。他分析了比特币价格的波动性,认为这与信用创造和摧毁的周期性有关,并引用Hyman Minsky的信用驱动金融周期理论来解释这种现象。他还讨论了区块链技术中“区块空间”的经济学,认为对交易的征税可能会损害价格发现功能。 Byrne Hobart还探讨了经济停滞的问题,认为社会日益增长的风险规避、过度监管和增量主义以及硬通货的丧失是导致经济停滞的原因。他认为,拥抱风险和创新是摆脱停滞的关键,而泡沫可以被视为一种协调机制,引导人们将技能应用于特定的领域,并促进科技进步。他认为,在泡沫时期,拥有相关技能的人应该积极参与,因为错过机会才是真正的风险。 Byrne Hobart还区分了好的泡沫和坏的泡沫,好的泡沫推动了科技进步和社会发展,而坏的泡沫则主要基于金融工程和规模扩张。他认为,好的泡沫是“应用科幻小说”,而坏的泡沫则是对既有模式的简单复制和放大。 Byrne Hobart还讨论了文明风险,认为虽然存在这种风险,但停滞并非长久之计,因为没有哪个文明能够抵御所有风险,而持续的创新和发展才是应对风险的关键。他认为,人类社会的发展历程中,技术进步总是伴随着风险和不确定性,而拥抱这些风险和不确定性是人类进步的动力。 Ryan Sean Adams:他认同Byrne Hobart的观点,认为一些泡沫是进步的渠道,并以加密货币周期为例进行说明。他还指出,并非所有泡沫都是好的,有些泡沫是社会停滞的产物。他强调了社会风险规避与经济停滞之间的关系,并认为加密货币领域的人们更愿意承担风险。 David Hoffman:他介绍了Kraken交易所,并对Byrne Hobart的观点表示赞同。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are bubbles considered good for progress?

Bubbles act as coordination mechanisms, signaling where resources and talent should be directed. They create a sense of urgency, encouraging people to take risks and innovate in areas that might otherwise be neglected. This can lead to the development of technologies or infrastructure that wouldn't exist without the speculative boom.

How does Byrne Hobart define a good bubble?

A good bubble is one where speculative enthusiasm leads to the development of transformative technologies or infrastructure that wouldn't have been built otherwise. These bubbles are characterized by applied science fiction, where bold visions of the future are funded and realized, often accelerating technological progress.

What are the key differences between good and bad bubbles?

Good bubbles focus on creating new technologies or industries (e.g., railroads, AI, crypto), while bad bubbles involve financial engineering and scaling existing systems without significant innovation (e.g., housing bubbles, subprime mortgages). Bad bubbles often result from low-risk, high-return speculation rather than genuine technological advancement.

Why does Byrne Hobart argue that stagnation is a problem?

Stagnation is a problem because it reflects a lack of bold, transformative innovation. Modern society has become risk-averse, favoring incremental improvements over radical breakthroughs. This has led to slower productivity growth and a hollowing out of industries like manufacturing, which has been outsourced to other countries.

What role does risk aversion play in stagnation?

Risk aversion contributes to stagnation by discouraging individuals and institutions from pursuing high-risk, high-reward projects. Society has embraced safetyism, prioritizing stability over innovation. This cultural shift has made it harder to fund and develop transformative technologies, leading to a slowdown in progress.

How does Byrne Hobart view the relationship between bubbles and stagnation?

Bubbles are seen as a potential solution to stagnation because they inject risk and speculative energy into the economy, encouraging innovation and the development of new technologies. Without bubbles, progress can stagnate as society becomes too cautious and incremental in its approach to growth.

What are some examples of productive bubbles mentioned in the book?

Examples of productive bubbles include the railroad boom, which led to the development of a vast rail network, and the crypto bubble, which has driven advancements in decentralized finance and digital currencies. These bubbles resulted in significant technological and economic progress.

How does Byrne Hobart explain the role of FOMO (fear of missing out) in bubbles?

FOMO is a natural response to bubbles, especially when they signal a transformative opportunity. Byrne argues that if you have skills relevant to a bubble, fearing missing out is rational. It encourages people to participate and contribute to the development of new technologies or industries.

What are some potential future bubbles according to Byrne Hobart?

Potential future bubbles include space exploration (e.g., Elon Musk's Mars projects), biotechnology (e.g., life extension and health advancements), and energy innovations. These areas represent ambitious, transformative visions that could benefit from speculative investment and innovation.

How does Byrne Hobart view the role of regulation in stagnation?

Byrne argues that over-regulation and a preference for incrementalism have stifled innovation. Regulations often prioritize stability over risk-taking, which can slow down the development of new technologies. This regulatory environment contributes to societal stagnation by discouraging bold, transformative projects.

Chapters
This chapter explores the counterintuitive idea that bubbles, while risky, can be catalysts for progress. It argues that bubbles concentrate capital and effort towards specific technologies or organizational structures, leading to advancements that wouldn't otherwise occur. The chapter uses examples like the railroad and AI booms to illustrate this point.
  • Bubbles can accelerate technological progress by concentrating resources and efforts.
  • Some technologies would not exist without the speculative investment that bubbles create.
  • Bubbles act as a coordination mechanism, directing talent and capital towards promising areas.
  • FOMO (fear of missing out) can be a beneficial motivator in a bubble context, driving innovation and participation.

Shownotes Transcript

How can economic bubbles be good for the world?

Byrne Hobart is a financial analyst known for his newsletter "The Diff" which covers tech, trends and economics. Byrne has been on the periphery of crypto for longer that this podcast has existed

In this podcast we discuss the book he has co-authored, Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation, where he makes the case for why human progress has stagnated and why speculative bubbles might be the only way out.

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------ TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro 7:29 Byrne’s Crypto Background 10:13 Bitcoin Inception 28:17 Blockspace Economics 34:20 BOOM Thesis 45:35 The Great Stagnation 1:16:46 Civilizational Risk 1:32:31 Good Bubbles vs Bad Bubbles 1:40:04 Identifying the Next Bubble 1:47:53 Closing & Disclaimers

------ RESOURCES

Byrne Hobart https://x.com/ByrneHobart)  

Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation https://a.co/d/f7m2OG8)  

The Diff Newsletter https://www.thediff.co/)  

------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures) ⁠