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cover of episode #119 Todd Simkin: Making Better Decisions

#119 Todd Simkin: Making Better Decisions

2021/9/7
logo of podcast The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
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Shane Parrish
创始人和CEO，专注于网络安全、投资和知识分享。
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Todd Simkin
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Shane Parrish: 本期节目探讨了如何做出更好决策，涵盖了决策过程、认知偏差、概率思维以及如何在个人和团队层面提升决策能力等方面。节目中，Shane Parrish 与 Todd Simkin 就信息不对称、贝叶斯定理、部落主义对决策的影响等问题进行了深入探讨，并分享了在 Susquehanna International Group 的交易和教育经验。 Todd Simkin: 在 Susquehanna International Group 的多年工作经验中，Simkin 总结了做出更好决策的方法，包括：1. 积极寻求并整合所有可用信息，并以贝叶斯方法更新观点；2. 认识到并克服认知偏差，如确认偏差、后见之明偏差等；3. 避免部落主义思维，客观评估信息；4. 培养概率思维，避免非黑即白的二元思维；5. 通过与他人沟通，获得外部视角，改进决策过程；6. 鼓励团队文化中寻求真相而非盲目行动，并坦诚交流，互相指出错误；7. 在教育中，采用维果茨基的“最近发展区”理论，提供适当的支架式支持，帮助交易员逐步提升能力；8. 评估交易员能力时，关注决策过程而非结果，避免后见之明偏差；9. 通过模拟真实的交易场景，引导交易员进行讨论和反思，并学习如何处理不确定性；10. 在日常生活中，通过反思性倾听、开放式提问等方式，与他人进行建设性沟通，提升决策能力。 Shane Parrish: 节目中，Parrish 与 Simkin 就信息不对称、贝叶斯定理、部落主义对决策的影响等问题进行了深入探讨，并分享了在 Susquehanna International Group 的交易和教育经验。Parrish 还探讨了人们在寻找答案的过程中，享受程度因情境而异，以及人们难以进行概率性思考，倾向于将概率事件简单地归类为“一定会发生”、“一定不会发生”或“可能发生”等问题。

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Todd discusses how Susquehanna handles information asymmetry by building internal research capabilities and updating opinions in a Bayesian way, focusing on mutually exclusive information.

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Todd Simkin calls on experiences from his lengthy career in financial services and educating traders to help Shane understand how to make better decisions. Simkin breaks down all the influences that go into how and why we make decisions, why financial decisions are different than inter-personal ones, the strategies involved with teaching other people to make better decisions, what he looks for when he’s hiring, the value of asking the right questions, and so much more.

Simkin is Associate Director at Susquehanna International Group, a privately held trading and technology firm. During his 25 years with the company he has held a variety of roles, including responsibility for SIG’s firm-wide education and trader development, where he taught the company’s new traders what questions to ask and what criteria to weigh before making hugely impactful decisions for the firm.

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