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cover of episode #28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi

#28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi

2018/1/23
logo of podcast The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

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Michael Mauboussin
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Shane Parrish
创始人和CEO,专注于网络安全、投资和知识分享。
Topics
Michael Mauboussin: 本次访谈深入探讨了决策制定、运气与技能、组织决策流程及直觉的培养等多个主题。在决策制定方面,他强调了基准比率的重要性,并建议根据问题的运气和技能成分来权衡内视角和外视角。他还讨论了如何通过统计方法或观察领域的预测能力、专家意见的一致性等指标来判断技能和运气的占比。在组织决策方面,他指出低层级工作通常技能成分更高,而高层级工作则运气成分更高,并建议建立系统的决策流程,系统地评估决策的优劣,包括输入和衡量标准。他还提到卡尼曼关于决策中“噪声”的研究,以及如何克服算法规避。在直觉的培养方面,他认为直觉在稳定和线性的领域中可以被训练和运用,但在变化的领域中需要谨慎。他建议通过观察专家的行为和获得高质量的反馈来提升直觉。 Shane Parrish: Shane Parrish 在访谈中提出了关于如何提升对其他领域专家直觉的理解和运用、如何判断知识工作者是否只是处于业绩低谷,还是已经失去了技能优势等问题,并与 Michael Mauboussin 就这些问题进行了深入探讨。

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Michael Mauboussin discusses his recent work, including deep dives into base rates, corporate performance, and the concept of comparison.

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Michael Mauboussin returns for a fascinating encore interview on the Knowledge Project. We geek out on decision making, luck vs. skill, work life balance, and so much more.


Michael Mauboussin is back as a returning guest on the Knowledge Project!

He was actually the very first guest on the podcast when it was still very much an experiment. I enjoyed it so much, I decided to continue with the show. (If you missed his last interview, you can listen to it here), or if you’re a member of The Learning Community), you can download a transcript.)

Michael is one of my very favorite people to talk to, and I couldn’t wait to pick up right where we left off.

In this interview, Michael and I dive deep into some of the topics we care most about here at Farnam Street), including:

The concept of “base rates” and how they can help us make far better decisions and avoid the pain and consequences of making poor choices. How to know where you land on the luck/skill continuum and why it matters Michael’s advice on creating a systematic decision-making process in your organization to improve outcomes. The two most important elements of any decision-making process How to train your intuition to be one of your most powerful assets instead of a dangerous liability The three tests Michael uses in his company to determine the health and financial stability of his environment Why “algorithm aversion” is creating such headaches in many organizations and how to help your teams overcome it, so you can make more rapid progress The most impactful books that he’s read since we last spoke, is reading habits, and the strategies he uses to get the most of every book The importance of sleep in Michael's’ life to make sure his body and mind are running at peak efficiency His greatest failures and what he learned from them How Michael and his wife raised their kids and the unique parenting style they adopted How Michael defines happiness and the decisions he makes to maximize the joy in his life

Any one of those insights alone is worth a listen, so I think you’re really going to enjoy this interview.

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