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cover of episode 5 Startups That Looked Dumb—Until They Were Worth Billions

5 Startups That Looked Dumb—Until They Were Worth Billions

2025/5/23
logo of podcast My First Million

My First Million
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Aaron Levy
B
Bill Gurley
B
Brian Chesky
E
Elon Musk
以长期主义为指导，推动太空探索、电动汽车和可再生能源革命的企业家和创新者。
J
Jan Koum
P
Pat Grady
S
Sam Parr
以《My First Million》播客主持人和企业家身份而闻名，专注于发现和分享高利润商业模式。
S
Shaan Puri
成功主持《My First Million》播客，分享创业策略和资源。
教
教授
Topics
Sam Parr: 我认为在评估创业公司时，我们常常会低估其市场潜力，就像Bessemer对Shopify的早期投资一样，他们最初认为Shopify的退出价值最多为4亿美元，但现在Shopify的价值已经超过1400亿美元。这表明即使是专业的风险投资公司，也很难准确预测一家公司的真正潜力。我们应该从这些案例中吸取教训，更加开放地看待新兴市场和创新企业。 Shaan Puri: 我也经常犯同样的错误，低估某些产品或服务的市场规模。例如，我曾认为冥想应用、Snapchat和Airbnb等产品的市场很小，但它们最终都成为了价值数十亿美元的公司。这让我意识到，我们应该更加重视那些看似不起眼的想法，因为它们可能蕴藏着巨大的潜力。此外，我们还应该有勇气相信自己的判断，即使这意味着要承担一定的风险。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes Bessemer Venture Partners' misjudgment of Shopify's potential in 2010, highlighting the vast difference between their predicted $400 million exit value and Shopify's current $140 billion valuation. It underscores the common human tendency to underestimate opportunities and overestimate risks in business.
  • Bessemer Venture Partners underestimated Shopify's potential, predicting a $400 million exit value.
  • Shopify's current valuation is $140 billion.
  • The case highlights the difficulty in predicting market size and the potential of new technologies.

Shownotes Transcript

Episode 710: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr) ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP) ) talk about how to evaluate risk and upside of new ideas. 

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Show Notes:

(0:00) Bessemer's $140B misjudgment of Shopify

(5:47) Shaan's Anti-portfolio

(15:26) Goal: Avoid Ruin

(21:30) Outlier personalities

(24:51) Underestimating Uber

(32:16) "You can't overinvest in AI"

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Links:

• Want Sam's Playbook to Uncover Business Opportunities? Get it here: https://clickhubspot.com/bzo)

• “How to miss by a mile” - https://tinyurl.com/2rxubfwa) 

• Leaked OpenAI emails - https://www.techemails.com/p/elon-musk-and-openai) 

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Check Out Shaan's Stuff:

• Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com) 

• Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm) to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents.

• Mercury - Need a bank for your company? Go check out Mercury (mercury.com)). Shaan uses it for all of his companies!

Mercury is a financial technology company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust, Members FDIC

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Check Out Sam's Stuff:

• Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/)

• Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/)

• Copy That - https://copythat.com)

• Hampton Wealth Survey - https://joinhampton.com/wealth)

• Sam’s List - http://samslist.co/)

My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano