We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
2025 = Biggest Bank M&A Year In History? Bank Czar Brad Rinschler on Credit, CRE, GBank, REIT Pain, and Much Much More
2025/2/3
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
B
Brad Rinschler
Brad Rinschler: 我对银行的看法有所改变。过去几年,我们的基金表现良好,但在2022年和2023年,我们并不看好银行的整体形势,因此做空了许多最终在2023年出现问题的银行。现在,我们看好银行,特别是社区银行。我们的投资组合大部分都在账面价值以下交易,并进行大量的股票回购和高额股息派发。新政府将支持社区银行的并购,这将是过去四年来阻碍社区银行发展的一个重大障碍。我们看好社区银行的未来发展前景,因为它们的估值合理,更容易发生并购,而且竞争对手较少。我们关注资产规模低于50亿美元的小型银行,它们有的在柜台交易市场或纳斯达克交易。
我们做空了2023年倒闭的五家银行:硅谷银行、签名银行、第一共和国银行、共和国第一银行和Silvergate银行。我们认为这些银行的资产减记是真实的,并且它们缺乏足够的资本。美联储的快速加息以及美国财政部直接投资计划(Treasury Direct)导致银行面临存款外流的风险。此外,许多银行没有对冲利率风险,这加剧了它们的困境。
我们看好GBank (GBFH),这是一家总部位于拉斯维加斯的银行,拥有独特的商业模式和巨大的增长潜力。他们的BCS专利可以保护存款,使其免受网络攻击和存款外流的风险。他们的信用卡业务已经盈利,并且交易量巨大。他们还与Konami合作开发用于老虎机的应用程序,这将为赌场带来更多的非利息存款。我们认为GBank的盈利能力将在未来几年大幅增长。
我们还做空了一些商业地产相关的公司,例如Arbor Realty Trust和Sashim Capital Corp,因为我们认为商业地产市场面临着挑战。我们认为这些公司的资产价值被高估,并且它们的贷款违约率很高。
我们认为2025年将是小型银行并购史上最大的一年,因为银行愿意出售,买家也愿意购买,而监管环境不会阻止这一趋势。我们看好宾夕法尼亚州、新泽西州、加利福尼亚州、太平洋西北部和东南部的银行并购活动。
我们对消费者信贷持谨慎态度,因为我们认为非银行机构发放的非追索权、非担保贷款是一颗定时炸弹。我们认为,如果利率下降,或者资产价格下跌,商业地产市场将面临挑战。
Jack Farley: (访谈者,主要提出问题,没有表达个人观点)
supporting_evidences
Brad Rinschler: 'The new administration is going to be friendly to mergers in community bank space...'
Brad Rinschler: 'Valuations better, right? Probably more up to merger, more up to see mergers with premiums...'
Brad Rinschler: 'we started to have an interesting move that was going to be pretty impactful...'
Brad Rinschler: 'You know, one of our slogans... if you sell banks at 13 times forward earnings, you make money every time.'
Brad Rinschler: 'But I think number one, that does not include at all the impact of the balance sheet...'
Brad Rinschler: 'Well, the problem was... the U.S. Treasury came out with Treasury Direct...'
Brad Rinschler: 'And the bank couldn't make a CD...it was kind of like a perfect storm...'
Brad Rinschler: 'So in 2023, we put all five banks that went to zero to zero.'
Brad Rinschler: 'It was a, it was a wild...we made money on the short side of banks as well.'
Brad Rinschler: 'So the biggest holding for the last 5 years has been GBank...'
Brad Rinschler: 'let's just say here's a problem right now...bcs patents allow you to break that out'
Brad Rinschler: 'It's individual accounts...Gbank's the only one that could do this'
Brad Rinschler: 'So the credit card now is profitable...the transaction volume is insane'
Brad Rinschler: 'So this is an app...it's kind of prehistoric'
Brad Rinschler: 'So you can do the math...plus 30'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, there's 14 million shares...kind of interesting to watch the stock price here'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think CCB and GBank will be the two leaders...they're the NVIDIAs to bank.'
Brad Rinschler: 'the banking as a service is interesting...that would have never happened'
Brad Rinschler: 'Well, if G-Bank...stock trades less than 10 times earnings'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean really...some type of crm product'
Brad Rinschler: 'We're short from hire...Department of Justice and FBI investigation'
Brad Rinschler: 'I don't think the bid...60 cents on the dollar, 65 cents on the dollar'
Brad Rinschler: 'That one is...it's a fix and flip in a restructure'
Brad Rinschler: 'So, I mean, NewTek's valuation...they never had to deal with regulators'
Brad Rinschler: 'Well, I mean...they knew this was coming'
Brad Rinschler: 'I do think that he's a very good manager...he knows what he's doing'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, you can get me going on HomeStreet...gets another one'
Brad Rinschler: 'but they have...I think they could sell that Fannie Mae dust license'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think Connect One's interesting...which is...'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think that that ships sales...they're going to'
Brad Rinschler: 'IPOs as in terms of banks, no...I think M&A in 2025 will be more than the whole Biden administration'
Brad Rinschler: 'I believe that...And I think the small banks would be the biggest one'
Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript