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2025 = Biggest Bank M&A Year In History? Bank Zhar Brad Rinschler on Credit, CRE, GBank, REIT Pain, and Much Much More
2025/2/3
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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Brad Rinschler
Brad Rinschler: 我对银行的看法有所改变。过去几年,我的基金业绩非常好,但我们并不看好2022年和2023年的银行市场,因此我们做空了很多在2023年出现问题并最终倒闭的银行。2024年对我们来说是伟大的一年,我们在多空两方面都获得了成功。现在,我们看好银行,特别是社区银行。我们的投资组合大部分股票的交易价格低于其账面价值,并且这些银行进行大量的股票回购并派发高额股息。基金的平均股息率约为4%到5%,有些甚至高达8%。我们看好这些银行的未来发展,因为新政府将有利于社区银行的并购,而这在过去四年一直是阻碍社区银行发展的一大因素。我们关注的是资产规模低于50亿美元的小型银行,这些银行有些在柜台交易市场或纳斯达克交易。
我们之所以选择投资小型银行,而不是像摩根大通这样的大型银行,是因为小型银行的估值更合理,更容易发生并购,并且更容易理解其资产负债表。此外,小型银行的竞争对手也更少。我们关注的是真正的社区银行,这些银行的业务与当地经济息息相关。我们可能会投资一家只在三个县拥有十家分行的宾夕法尼亚州银行。
2022年和2023年,我们对银行持负面看法,因为我们认为这些银行的资产减记是真实的,而不是暂时的。我们公开表达了这一观点,因为我们认为这些银行缺乏足够的资本。我们还认为,社区银行的估值过高,并且联邦储备委员会的加息对银行的资产负债表造成了重大冲击。
我们做空了2023年倒闭的五家银行:硅谷银行、Silvergate、Signature、First Republic和Republic First。这些银行倒闭的原因是利率风险和存款快速增长,而不是信用风险。这些银行在利率上升时购买了大量债券,导致其价值下降,并最终导致其资本耗尽。
现在,我们看好小型社区银行的未来发展,因为它们的估值合理,并且新政府将有利于银行并购。我们认为,如果整体市场出现回调,小型社区银行将是一个不错的投资机会。
我们最大的持仓是GBank。我于2019年底为这家公司筹集了资金。起初,我对这家公司的业务模式并不了解,但后来我被它的故事所吸引。GBank最初是一家SBA贷款机构和酒店贷款机构,它拥有一张用于赌博的借记卡。后来,由于万事达卡和Visa拒绝为其赌博代码提供服务,GBank将借记卡业务转向信用卡业务。现在,信用卡业务已经开始盈利,并且交易量巨大。GBank还与Konami合作开发了一个用于老虎机的应用程序,这将为赌场带来大量的无息存款。
我认为GBank的每股收益将在未来几年持续增长,并且其股价有很大的上涨潜力。GBank即将被纳入罗素指数,这将对其股价产生积极影响。
除了GBank,我还持有其他一些小型社区银行的股票,例如CCB和FNWB。我们还做空了一些公司,例如Arbor Realty Trust和Sation Capital Corp,因为我们认为这些公司的资产质量存在问题。我们还关注商业房地产市场,我们认为该市场面临着挑战。
我认为2025年将是历史上最大的银行并购年,因为银行愿意出售,买家愿意购买,并且监管环境不会阻止并购活动。我特别看好宾夕法尼亚州的银行并购市场。
Jack Farley: 在节目中,Jack Farley 与 Brad Rinschler 就银行投资、2023 年银行倒闭事件、社区银行的未来以及 GBank 等话题进行了深入探讨。Jack Farley 就一些具体问题向 Brad Rinschler 提问,例如为什么 Brad Rinschler 看好社区银行,以及他为什么做空了 2023 年倒闭的五家银行。Jack Farley 还询问了 Brad Rinschler 对 GBank 的看法,以及他对其他一些银行和金融科技公司的看法。Jack Farley 也表达了他对商业房地产市场和消费者信贷市场的担忧。
supporting_evidences
Brad Rinschler: 'The new administration is going to be friendly to mergers in community bank space...'
Brad Rinschler: 'Valuations better, right? Probably more up to merger, more up to see mergers with premiums...'
Brad Rinschler: 'we started to have an interesting move that was going to be pretty impactful...and we took a pretty hard stance that's that those marks are real and we bet on it'
Brad Rinschler: 'You know, one of our slogans...if you sell banks at 13 times forward earnings, you make money every time.'
Brad Rinschler: 'But I think number one, that does not include at all the impact of the balance sheet...'
Brad Rinschler: 'Well, the problem was...the U.S. Treasury came out with Treasury Direct...'
Brad Rinschler: 'So in 2023, we put all five banks that went to zero to zero.'
Brad Rinschler: 'Was it just the rapid deposit growth as well as the huge amount of interest rate risk? Because to my knowledge, none of those banks failed because Because of credit risk.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, they just basically vaporized their balance sheets and their capital.'
Brad Rinschler: 'So the biggest holding for the last 5 years has been GBank...'
Brad Rinschler: 'if you say jack if you sell your star wars collection on ebay and you leave your money at paypal and paypal gets hacked who's that the money you are right...'
Brad Rinschler: 'So they went to a credit card. So the credit card now is profitable.'
Brad Rinschler: 'So this is an app that are on the slot machines...'
Brad Rinschler: 'So you can do the math on that...lend deposits out to other banks at probably plus 30.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, there's 14 million shares outstanding...Russell Fund is going to need to buy one to 1.3 million shares.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think CCB and GBank will be the two leaders in FinTech banks.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I'll just tell you right now, if Evolve was licensing G-Bank's BCSs, that would have never happened.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I'm quite proud of the forum that you mentioned i think either are or are going to be the the success stories here'
Brad Rinschler: 'Well, if G-Bank...stock trades less than 10 times earnings.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think they somehow these guys these things have to be become married...'
Brad Rinschler: 'We have a basket of smaller names...'
Brad Rinschler: 'It's past their three years...I think the stock...tangible looks somewhere around 18 and a half.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think this is this would be if you ever want to own this thing i think this time because i think there's a bunch of different ways you can win and not very many you can lose'
Brad Rinschler: 'Yeah, I mean, it's been tough...expect six to nine months.'
Brad Rinschler: 'We're short from hire...there's a Department of Justice and FBI investigation going on right now.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I don't think the bid...65 cents on the dollar.'
Brad Rinschler: '98% of the loans is classified in some way or another.'
Brad Rinschler: 'They make loans to commercial real estate...basically bridge, right?'
Brad Rinschler: 'That one is...It's a fix and flip in a restructure...'
Brad Rinschler: 'So, I mean, NewTek's valuation...they're gonna have some credit problems'
Brad Rinschler: 'If I wanted to get into that space, I would do a lot more work on Live Oak.'
Brad Rinschler: 'Well, I mean, I have a pretty good strong view on Flagstar...'
Brad Rinschler: 'I do think that he's a very good manager...he was the best during the credit crisis by far.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, you can get me going on HomeStreet...gets another one.'
Brad Rinschler: 'but they have they have something on their balance sheet called a Fannie Mae dust license...'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think ConnectOne Bank's interesting...which is...'
Brad Rinschler: 'We do...We'll look at it.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think Bank of California...swimming you know swimming against the tide'
Brad Rinschler: 'All right, all three have tug of war going on...So I'll give you that out there.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I think that the regulatory environment...they just put a roadblocks.'
Brad Rinschler: 'The resident thing is fine...We could see interest rates come down and long rates just do nothing to go up.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, like stuff from a firm...something like that in a way just we can't quantify right now is that we know that that's going to be an issue'
Brad Rinschler: 'If there's a fintech...than when they're from the tech background.'
Brad Rinschler: 'Oh yeah, well, we have this model...they're just deluding themselves.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, banks are so cyclical...bad times used to get pretty ugly.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I mean, that's kind of your middle market customer...I think that continues.'
Brad Rinschler: 'IPOs as in terms of banks, no...I think M&A in 2025 will be more than the whole Biden administration over the last four years.'
Brad Rinschler: 'I believe that...And I think the small banks would be the biggest one.'
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