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American Exceptionalism was a Fiscal Facade | Marco Papic
2025/6/1
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
M
Marco Papic
Marco Papic: 我认为财政政策比关税政策对投资者来说是更重要的议题。特朗普的谈判策略最终会达成一些对美国有边际利益的协议，让投资者意识到之前的担忧是杞人忧天。特朗普谈判策略的精妙之处在于，让市场消化了普遍10%的进口关税。如果最终只剩下10%的普遍进口关税，市场是可以接受的。这10%的进口关税实际上是美国消费者承担的一种增值税。债券市场需要认可关税，认为其足够低，以便美国消费者和零售商能够承担，并产生足够的关税收入来抵消财政优先事项。最终会稳定在10%的普遍关税，我认为这不会对市场造成太大影响。在政策驱动的衰退中，重要的是政策变化，而不是市场情绪。特朗普总统对实际的经济痛苦没有胃口。关税将作为一种消费税，用于支付2017年减税政策的永久性。在政策驱动的衰退中，需要改变的是政策，而不是市场情绪。特朗普总统对与包括中国在内的美国对手达成贸易协议持开放态度。关税的目的是为了增加收入，但过高的关税不会让债券市场满意，因为债券市场知道如果关税太高，就无法征收。预计最终会达成10%的普遍关税，加上一些国家安全关税，有效税率可能在12%-14%左右，虽然高于预期，但经济可以消化并继续发展。从长远来看，做空是错误的，并且可能会让投资者损失很多。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes President Trump's trade negotiation strategies, particularly regarding tariffs. It argues that the market's reaction to tariffs has been less dramatic than initially anticipated, and that the focus should shift towards the implications of fiscal policy rather than tariff policy alone.
- Trump's trade negotiation strategy often involves a series of escalating threats followed by a deal that is less impactful than initially feared.
- The market has largely digested the anticipation of a 10% across-the-board import tariff.
- The impact of tariffs will largely be borne by American consumers and retailers.
- The bond market's approval is crucial for tariff policy to be effective.
Shownotes Transcript