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Bull Markets' Tumultuous Third Year | Sam Stovall on Earnings Expectations, Sector Outlooks, and bull Case for U.S. Stocks
2025/7/2
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
S
Sam Stovall
Sam Stovall: 我认为股市第三年通常波动较大，历史数据也表明了这一点。自二战以来，牛市进入第三年后的平均涨幅并不显著。不过，一旦进入第四年，通常会有两位数的增长。目前我仍然看好股市，但程度较低，因为估值偏高。虽然投资者在市场下跌时会转向防御性板块，但盈利预期尚未显著改变。标普500指数预计2025年全年将上涨6.9%，低于年初的预期。价格往往领先于基本面，因此我们需要看到更乐观的盈利展望。我认为管理层擅长管理预期，实际业绩通常会超过预期。在行业配置方面，我倾向于坚持投资赢家，即那些在上涨年份表现良好的行业。在市场触底反弹后，最好从表现最好的行业转向表现最差的行业。目前，通信服务、非必需消费品和科技是表现最差的三个行业。我也会关注那些高于其150日移动平均线和50日移动平均线的股票，因为它们可能出现突破。
Deep Dive
This chapter explores the volatility of the third year in a bull market, using historical data from 11 bull markets since World War II. It reveals that the third year often shows less growth compared to previous years and discusses the reasons behind this trend.
- Third year of bull markets shows only 2.2% average growth.
- Only one in five times does a down year precede two years of double-digit gains followed by a third year.
- Worries about tariffs, global trade, and recession contributed to the market's near-correction.
Shownotes Transcript