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cover of episode Fiscal Decay, EM Parallels, and What’s Next for the Dollar | Nicolás Dujovne

Fiscal Decay, EM Parallels, and What’s Next for the Dollar | Nicolás Dujovne

2025/5/23
logo of podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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Nicolás Dujovne: 阿根廷的本地资本市场规模非常小，因此一直以来都受到全球经济状况和美元的影响。由于阿根廷未能像巴西或智利那样建立起足够规模的本地资本市场，所以对外部环境的依赖性很高。其他新兴市场经济体通过稳定经济、降低通货膨胀并使用本国货币进行融资，从而提高了抵御外部冲击的能力，避免了资产负债错配。然而，阿根廷尚未实现本币融资，2008年政府对养老基金的干预是主要挫折，这严重打击了国内资本市场的发展。长期以来，阿根廷一直存在财政赤字，主要通过发行美元债务或印钞来弥补，这使得阿根廷非常依赖国际市场。因此，国际形势对阿根廷至关重要。

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This chapter explores the significant impact of global conditions and the US dollar on Argentina's economy, particularly its small local capital market and reliance on external financing. It highlights Argentina's challenges in building a robust local capital market and its history of fiscal deficits.
  • Argentina has a small local capital market.
  • Its economy is highly susceptible to global conditions and the US dollar.
  • The seizure of pension funds in 2008 hindered the development of a large domestic capital market.
  • Argentina's fiscal deficit has been a long-standing issue, leading to reliance on external financing.

Shownotes Transcript

Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset Management and former Treasury Minister of Argentina joins Monetary Matters to discuss the evolution of emerging market economies, EM debt investing, and why even though the US’s failure to address fiscal issues may be reminiscent of emerging markets it still falls short of full EM status even if it risks the US Dollar’s reserve currency status over the long run. Dujovne also identifies the opportunities he's watching now, explains why he thinks the dollar is moving lower, and makes the case for EM debt becoming more common in investor portfolios. Learn more about Tenac Asset Management: https://tenacam.com) Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96) Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh) Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5) YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez) Timestamps: 00:46 The Impact of the Dollar on EMs Like Argentina 04:59 The Impact of the Fed and US Rated on EMs Experiencing Crisis 08:15 The Causes of Argentina's Inflation 15:17 The Mechanics of Money Printing 18:38 Macro Investing in Emerging Markets 28:30 Dollar Bonds vs Local Currency Bonds 34:55 Why Do Countries Issue Dollar Bonds? 40:05 The Case for EM Debt as an Asset Class 44:21 Balance of Payments 47:51 Economics vs Trading 52:58 Rebalancing the US vs the Rest of World 55:40 The Weakening US Dollar 57:54 Tariff Impacts on US GDP 01:01:36 One Year Dollar Outlook 01:03:25 Current Positioning 01:05:26 Current Market Anomalies 01:08:52 Is the US Becoming an Emerging Market 01:13:54 LATAM Tariff Winners 01:17:16 Opinions on Milei 01:21:18 Argentina Market Views