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Ken Rogoff on Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Dollar Hegemony

2025/5/12

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Ken Rogoff: 我对美元霸权的未来持谨慎态度。虽然美元仍将是主要储备货币，但其地位正在下降，并且未来可能面临来自欧元和人民币的更大挑战。贸易逆差和财政赤字是导致这一问题的主要因素。特朗普政府的关税政策虽然旨在解决贸易逆差，但其方式笨拙且具有破坏性。自动化是导致制造业岗位流失的主要因素，而不是全球化。解决贸易失衡的关键在于解决财政赤字问题，而不是依靠关税。中国经济的崛起对美元霸权构成威胁，而人民币国际化的进程正在加速。此外，美国的法治和金融体系的稳定性也受到质疑，这可能会削弱美元的吸引力。虽然美国长期以来一直从其国际投资中获得更多收益，但随着美国债务的增加和利率的上升，这种情况可能会发生变化。总的来说，美元霸权的未来充满了不确定性，需要采取更全面的措施来解决财政赤字和贸易逆差等问题，同时维护美国金融体系的稳定性和法治。 Jack Farley: 作为主持人，我没有提出自己的观点，而是引导Ken Rogoff教授阐述他对美元霸权的看法，并就相关问题进行深入探讨。我主要关注的是美国与中国的贸易逆差，以及特朗普政府的关税政策对全球经济的影响。通过与Ken Rogoff教授的对话，我了解到贸易逆差和财政赤字之间的复杂关系，以及自动化对美国制造业就业的影响。我还了解到，美元霸权的未来可能是一个多极化的体系，人民币国际化将对美元的地位构成挑战。

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To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus

Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/)

Ken Rogoff’s new book on the U.S. Dollar on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315)

On Publisher’s site: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/)

Ken Rogoff, renowned economist and author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead” traces the development of the U.S. Dollar’s rise to world dominance, and he connects it with the trade and capital imbalances that have recently motivated large tariff actions from the United States. Rogoff argues that he thinks the Trump tariff policy through April 30 2025 was somewhat “dumb” but that there is a chance that 10 years from now Trump will be viewed as having been right. Recorded April 30, 2025.

Ken Rogoff on Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Dollar Hegemony 01:07:59 Share

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Ken Rogoff on Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Dollar Hegemony