We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Soaring US Debt Burden & The Global Market Reset | Gerard Minack

Soaring US Debt Burden & The Global Market Reset | Gerard Minack

2025/6/4
logo of podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
G
Gerard Minack
Topics
Gerard Minack: 我在疫情期间退出了“长期停滞俱乐部”，认为疫情会催化一些变革，结束长期停滞时代。这些变革包括更大的政府赤字和投资需求的增加，反映了气候变化、国防开支增加以及全球化放缓等因素。全球储蓄和投资之间的平衡将被打破，这将推高实际收益率。特朗普政府的财政宽松政策将进一步强化“更高更长”的口号。虽然会有周期性波动，但新的利率体系将使美国国债稳定在4%到6%的范围内。特朗普的政策正在给那些为赤字提供资金的国家的储蓄率带来压力。美国需要更多储蓄来为其赤字提供资金，与此同时，其他国家也希望将储蓄留在国内，这可能会给实际收益率带来上行压力。存在一种风险，即整个局面可能变得混乱，导致债券收益率急剧上升或美元大幅贬值。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the shift from secular stagnation to a higher interest rate environment, driven by increased government deficits and investment demand. The role of Japan's changing economic landscape and its implications for global interest rates are also discussed.
  • Resignation from the Secular Stagnation Club due to changes catalysed by the pandemic.
  • Increased government deficits and investment demand are pushing real yields higher.
  • Normalization of Japanese interest rates is impacting global rates.
  • US Treasury yields are under upward pressure as Japanese yields rise.

Shownotes Transcript

To learn more about the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ): https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/

To view the prospectus: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus

Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors joins Monetary Matters to discuss why even though other developed nations like Japan may have higher debt to GDP ratios, factors like net debt, monetized debt, and the overall size of US debt make this comparison flawed. He argues these factors make the current trajectory of US debt levels completely unsustainable and that the bond vigilantes will step in long before even more extreme levels are reached. He also discussed the extreme valuation gap for US assets compared to the rest of the world, why he thinks that gap will narrow, Mag 7 dominance and AI, and why he thinks Japan, not China, is the large Asian market set to outperform.

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us

You can find Gerard Minack on Bloomberg

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Monetary Matters on:

Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:24 Van Eck OUNZ

01:00 Interest Rate & Bond Market Views

09:13 Comparing US Debt Levels to Japan

12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data

16:19 Two Growth Scenarios Affecting Rates This Year

23:30 Van Eck OUNZ

24:05 The New World of Higher Rates

33:12 How Higher Rates Impact Stocks

43:01 The AI Trade and US Valuations

49:23 The US Valuation Gap vs The Rest of the World

53:12 Mag 7 Dominance

01:03:15 Bearish on Chinese Stocks and Bullish on Japan

01:09:23 Japan's Macro Backdrop

01:16:19 The Neutral Rate & Demographics

01:21:22 No Recessions in Australia

01:26:16 Australian Outlook