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cover of episode Tariffs Aren’t Going Away | PIMCO’s Policy Head Libby Cantrill on Trade and Tax Environment In New U.S. Administration

Tariffs Aren’t Going Away | PIMCO’s Policy Head Libby Cantrill on Trade and Tax Environment In New U.S. Administration

2025/4/23
logo of podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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我观察到特朗普政府的关税政策，其核心在于总统本人对关税的坚定信念，以及以此来减少美国贸易逆差的决心。这并非只是为了达成贸易协议的手段，更是其自身的目标。自2017年以来，我们一直在向客户强调这一点。特朗普总统对关税的立场自20世纪80年代以来就非常一致，他反对NAFTA，反对中国加入WTO，这都体现了他对关税作为工具的坚定信念。 虽然特朗普政府在关税谈判中可能表现出灵活性，但我们不应低估其对关税的重视程度。我们预计，在特朗普政府执政期间，关税水平将持续高于以往。我们预测，10%的基础关税将维持不变，针对中国的关税将保持高位，尽管可能低于目前的145%。此外，针对汽车、铝、钢铁等行业的部门关税也将持续存在。 值得注意的是，特朗普政府对债券市场的反应非常敏感。当债券收益率快速上升时，政府明显注意到了其对实际经济的影响，这表明政府并非完全不受市场压力的影响。 至于政府从外国寻求的让步，这将因国而异，并且可能更多是象征性的，而非实质性的。与中国的谈判模式将与其他国家有所不同，因为中国是世界第二大经济体，并且在军事和地缘政治方面都对美国构成挑战。 此外，美国与其他国家达成的任何贸易协议的持久性都可能较低，因为这些协议的谈判需要数年甚至数十年时间。虽然特朗普政府可能会获得一些让步，但这可能更多是表面上的，而非实质性的改变。 总的来说，尽管可能会有一些贸易方面的胜利，但我们仍然预计美国的有效关税率将显著高于以往，这将对经济增长、通货膨胀和货币市场产生影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores President Trump's consistent belief in tariffs as a tool to level the playing field in international trade. It examines the administration's flexibility in tariff negotiations and the likelihood of changes in the tariff landscape in the near future. The chapter highlights the president's ideology and objective to reduce the trade deficit.
  • President Trump's belief in tariffs dates back to the 1980s.
  • The administration views tariffs as both a means to extract concessions and an end in itself.
  • A higher tariff rate is expected for the foreseeable future, potentially throughout the Trump administration.

Shownotes Transcript

Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, joins Monetary Matters to explain her outlook on U.S. trade and tax policy. Cantrill argues that while Trump administration has flexibility in tariff negotiations and that the China tariffs are likely headed much lower (a prediction that already looks like it will come true), tariffs are not going away anytime soon and she views the 10% tariffs on the world as a floor, with reciprocal tariffs on top of that floor especially on China being elevated. Cantrill also shares her views on sectoral tariffs, the rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (she doesn’t think it has traction), and tax cuts. Recorded the afternoon of April 22, 2025.

Follow Libby Cantrill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/libby-cantrill-cfa-17162513b/)

Most recent piece, “Overall U.S. Tariff Level Still High Despite Exemptions”:

https://www.pimco.com/us/en/insights/overall-us-tariff-level-still-high-despite-exemptions)

Cantrill’s profile on PIMCO: https://www.pimco.com/us/en/experts/libby-cantrill)

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