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cover of episode The Fed and The Flu | David Kotok on How Pandemics Transform Economies and Markets

The Fed and The Flu | David Kotok on How Pandemics Transform Economies and Markets

2025/5/16
logo of podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Jack Farley: 我认为大流行病与全球公共卫生危机和经济之间的关系至关重要,但研究不足。我们将讨论David Kotok的新书《美联储与流感:解析大流行病经济冲击》。 David Kotok: 该论文考察了800年的历史,并使用了英格兰银行的数据库,这是一个极好的利率和经济数据集合。该论文还使用了美联储的百年历史数据,并考察了19次疫情,包括COVID。研究人员真正捕捉到了大流行病对中性利率的影响。中性利率是指对通货膨胀或经济增长没有影响的利率。在大流行病冲击之后,中期来看,中性利率会下降。大流行病期间,人们死亡,但资本不会死亡。穷人继承的遗产不多,而富人继承的遗产很多,导致贫富差距扩大,储蓄更多地集中在富人手中。大流行病期间,生产力最低的企业会被淘汰。农民会选择放弃生产力最低的田地,从而提高整体生产力。大流行病导致人均财富增加,储蓄更加集中,贫富差距扩大,人均生产力提高。如果人均财富增加,储蓄更加集中,贫富差距扩大,人均生产力提高,那么中性利率必然会下降。中性利率下降会促进创新。过去的创新主要体现在战争手段上。每次大流行病都伴随着创新或战争。当今无人机技术的快速发展以及全球对安全问题的担忧,正在加速安全领域的创新。中性利率下降会产生积极的财富效应。杰伊·鲍威尔说通货膨胀是暂时的,他是对的,因为他了解中性利率会下降的历史。

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Chapters
David Kotok discusses his book, "The Fed and the Flu," which expands on a research paper analyzing the economic impacts of pandemics over 800 years. Key findings include a post-pandemic decline in the neutral interest rate, increased wealth inequality, and rising productivity.
  • Analysis of 19 pandemics over 800 years using Bank of England and Federal Reserve data
  • Post-pandemic decline in the neutral interest rate
  • Increased wealth inequality due to uneven inheritance patterns
  • Rise in productivity as least productive enterprises fail

Shownotes Transcript

David Kotok, Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss insights from his new book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks.” Kotok cites data over millennia to show that pandemics typically cause natural real interest rates to decline, and productivity and inequality to rise. Kotok argues that we must prepare for the next pandemic and shares his view on the origin of the COVID virus. Part II of an interview recorded on April 4, 2025, with the first part having aired on April 7, 2025. 

David Kotok’s book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks”: 

https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic-ebook/dp/B0DCK1ZHJT)

Paper, “Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26934/w26934.pdf)

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://x.com/DavidKotokGIC)

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