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cover of episode The Fed Will Choose Inflation Over Recession | Vincent Deluard

The Fed Will Choose Inflation Over Recession | Vincent Deluard

2025/6/15
logo of podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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Vincent Deluard
预测世俗通胀和探索影子经济的StoneX宏观策略主管。
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Vincent Deluard: 我认为过去几十年，由于政策制定方式的改变，以及经济结构的转变，经济衰退的发生变得更加困难。经济体以服务业为主，周期性较弱，现在生产的东西主要是无形资产，它们消耗的资本更少，经济对信贷周期和投资周期等因素的敏感度也降低了。各国政府应该努力防止经济衰退，并且越来越愿意以积极的方式使用各种工具来对抗衰退。决策者更倾向于承担通货膨胀的风险，也不愿承担经济衰退的风险，因此政策制定在结构上变得更具通胀性。医疗保健和社会保障支出的大幅增长为经济增长提供了一个很高的基线。由于增长基线较高，所以我们最多只能实现滞胀式的下滑，不太可能出现失业率上升和GDP连续几个季度下降的衰退。企业已经从2022年的经验中吸取了教训，意识到获得并留住高质量劳动力是多么困难，因此它们正以一种类似于欧洲的方式重新重视劳动力。美国正在转向德国模式，德国企业在经济衰退期间通常会保留员工，以便在需求恢复时能够迅速恢复运营。

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Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX joins Monetary Matters to discuss why he believes changes to policy makers toolkit and to the structure of the economy mean recessions are “cancelled.” He also discusses why he believes Trump’s MAGA economic policies will be bad for corporate profit margins and his bullish outlook on oil and energy stocks.

Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://x.com/VincentDeluard

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Monetary Matters on:

Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:07 Recessions are Cancelled

08:23 The No Recession Feedback Loop

11:11 Impact of Tariffs

13:21 MAGA’s War on Corporate Profits

19:26 Corporate Tax Rates

21:56 Fiscal Balance of Payments Crisis

26:11 Outlook for Inflation, Growth, and Rates

36:07 Outlook for the Stock Market

40:51 US Multiples Compared to Rest of the World

45:18 Bullish View on Oil & Energy Sector

55:15 July Fed Predictions