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cover of episode The Holy Grail of Macro | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon on Why Tariffs Won’t Cause A Recession And Why Buying Dips Only Works In An Expansion

The Holy Grail of Macro | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon on Why Tariffs Won’t Cause A Recession And Why Buying Dips Only Works In An Expansion

2025/5/20

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Aahan Menon

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Aahan Menon: 我认为关税的影响不会很大，我们之前的观点是关税不会产生很大的影响。虽然股票的预期回报是正的，但方差很大。现在我对股票的看法比上次更中性。股票市场已经消化了关税和未来增长的影响，现在与年初的情况大致一致。股票市场的涨势速度太快，除非盈利被错误定价，否则很难维持。盈利与经济状况大致一致，没有太多上涨空间。股票市场在短期内可能已经耗尽了动能，现在是休息的时候了。 Aahan Menon: 现在还不能确定关税对经济的影响。宣布的关税基本上与之前的极端情况一致。如果关税按宣布的那样实施，会对经济活动产生什么影响？关税通过三个渠道产生影响：公司利润的直接影响，贸易平衡的影响，以及对经济的信心影响。关税对公司利润的直接影响很小甚至没有。关税实际上适度改善了贸易平衡，但这并不意味着经济健康。信心传递对经济的影响主要体现在投资和耐用品消费方面。如果关税按宣布的方式实施，将对实际增长造成约1.5%的拖累，这与衰退压力一致。随着关税的逐步取消，许多压力已经逆转。存在大量的关税提前交易，这实际上提振了很多经济数据。过去几个月，围绕经济的预期发生了非常大的变化，但经济本身并没有发生太大变化。

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Monetary Matters listeners can get a 25% discount to Prometheus Macro: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters)

Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Macro, returns to Monetary Matters to share his in-depth macro process. He talks about how returns come from three factors: carry, mean reversion, and trend, and about how these three factors interact with other macro variables. Prometheus Macro is a trusted source for Jack and Monetary Matters listeners can get discounted access to Aahan’s research service by using the link below. Annual subscriptions can be purchased at 25% off the monthly subscription rate, and monthly subscribers can get a 10% discounted rate.

The Holy Grail of Macro | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon on Why Tariffs Won’t Cause A Recession And Why Buying Dips Only Works In An Expansion 01:43:54 Share

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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The Holy Grail of Macro | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon on Why Tariffs Won’t Cause A Recession And Why Buying Dips Only Works In An Expansion