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cover of episode The Window of Vulnerability | Tian Yang on Global Imbalances, the Dollar, Growth Vulnerabilities, and Housing (Plus A Special Offering for Monetary Matters Listeners)

The Window of Vulnerability | Tian Yang on Global Imbalances, the Dollar, Growth Vulnerabilities, and Housing (Plus A Special Offering for Monetary Matters Listeners)

2025/6/22
logo of podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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Tian Yang: 我认为美国长期以来一直存在消费过多的问题，而世界其他地区则消费不足。这种失衡本应通过货币调整来纠正，但由于美元作为全球储备货币的地位，这种情况并未发生。世界其他国家为了保持出口竞争力，优先考虑就业而非利润，导致美元被人为抬高，从而刺激美国出现经常账户逆差和过度消费。我认为这种全球贸易体系不太可能以目前的形式持续下去，这会产生重大影响。 Jack Farley: 我理解美元因其储备地位而被高估，美国消费过多，存在经常账户和财政赤字。那么，美元应该贬值以纠正这种失衡。然而，世界其他国家希望持有美元资产，这种情况持续了很长时间。是什么导致这种情况发生逆转？

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Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, returns to Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on global imbalances that have been building in the monetary system for decades. He shares what his data-driven approach indicates about the U.S. Dollar, global equities, and more. He also explains the challenges he sees ahead for U.S. homebuilding companies. Recorded June 19, 2025.

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