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cover of episode Trade Policy Isn't Driving China’s Trade Surplus | Matthew Klein

Trade Policy Isn't Driving China’s Trade Surplus | Matthew Klein

2025/6/11
logo of podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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Matthew Klein: 我认为贸易不应仅仅被看作是国家间的行为，而应被视为全球经济中企业和消费者之间互动的一部分。国家间的贸易失衡，往往是由于各国内部的经济结构和政策选择所导致的。这些内部因素，比如收入分配不均、产业政策偏向等，会影响到一个国家的储蓄和消费水平，进而影响其对外贸易的表现。因此，要理解贸易战，不能只看国家间的冲突，更要看到其背后复杂的国内阶级斗争和利益博弈。我一直强调，关注贸易问题背后的驱动因素有助于建立跨国团结，认识到彼此的经济利益，从而找到更有效的解决方案。 Matthew Klein: 我也观察到，中国的内部政治经济动态对中国人民和世界其他地方都产生了负面影响。中国政府实施的政策，在一定程度上抑制了大多数中国人的收入增长，导致国内消费不足，从而加剧了贸易顺差。这种顺差并非完全是中国企业“作弊”的结果，而是中国自身经济发展模式的体现。因此，解决中美贸易失衡问题，需要中国进行深层次的改革，调整收入分配结构，提高国内消费水平。同时，其他国家也应采取措施，减轻中国经济结构性问题带来的负面影响。

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Chapters
This chapter explores Matthew Klein's perspective on the US-China trade conflict, arguing that it's not a conflict between nations but rather a conflict between different groups within each country. He uses the example of the Euro crisis to illustrate how internal societal dynamics affect global economic relationships.
  • Trade imbalances are not solely due to trade policy but also income inequality and domestic economic policies.
  • The US-China trade conflict is a class war, not a war between nations.
  • Internal economic dynamics within a country significantly impact global trade and capital flow imbalances.

Shownotes Transcript

Matthew Klein, founder of The Overshoot and UN/BALANCED and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars with Michael Pettis joins Monetary Matters to discuss what factors really lead to major trade and capital flow imbalances between countries. He argues that factors like income inequality, domestic economic policy and decisions being made at the corporate level can have far more impact than country level trade policy. He also discusses why even though extreme trade and capital flow imbalances may be dangerous, implementing improper solutions can exacerbate the damage.

Follow Matthew Klein on Twitter: https://x.com/M_C_Klein

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Read Matthews Substack The Overshoot here: https://theovershoot.co/

Follow Monetary Matters on:

Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:52 Why Trade Wars Are Class Wars

12:13 Trade Surpluses vs Trade Deficits

18:51 Income Distribution Drives Capital Flows

28:28 China's Shifting Income Distribution

33:41 The Problem With China's Growing Trade and Current Account Surplus

41:51 Who is Winning in China?

44:04 How to Combat China's "Cheating on Trade"

49:25 Who Has the Upper Hand in Trade Negotiations?

54:05 Will Tariffs Drive Reshoring?

59:53 How Can the US Restore Balance of Trade?

01:08:29 Conclusions