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cover of episode What Investors Are Overlooking in AI & Semis | Val Zlatev

What Investors Are Overlooking in AI & Semis | Val Zlatev

2025/6/5
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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Val Zlatev: 硬科技是指除去软件和互联网之外的电子设备中的硬件,主要包括半导体、通信设备和制造半导体的设备。在90年代,硬科技是热门领域,许多对冲基金经理通过投资硬科技积累了财富。然而,在2000年代,软件和互联网成为主要的增长驱动力,而半导体增长放缓,周期性增强。尽管半导体表现出色,但投资者普遍低配硬科技,这种低配已经持续了近十年。我认为AI的发展更接近于云计算的发展,我们正处于一个长达数十年的投资周期的早期阶段。我个人不喜欢政府干预私营部门,更希望市场来决定谁是赢家。总的来说,我认为硬科技领域具有巨大的投资潜力,尤其是在AI的推动下,但投资者需要克服对周期性的恐惧,并建立更深入的知识储备。

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Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at hard tech specialist hedge fund Analog Century Capital Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss what he thinks investors still fail to appreciate about the secular growth of AI and semiconductors. He also discusses why DeepSeek was so misunderstood, other aspects of the AI supply chain, the state of the analog chip cycle, running long/short and market neutral strategies and garnering interest from the large multi-manager platforms.

Learn More About Analog Century Capital Management: https://www.analogcm.com/

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:15 What is Hard Tech?

02:41 The Evolution of the Hard Tech Sector From the 90s to Now

05:04 Investors Are Underweight Hard Tech

11:09 The Massive Impact of the End of Moore's Law

16:59 New Investment in Semiconductor Capacity

18:08 Why AI Should Be Compared to Cloud, Not Fiber

22:55 What Investors Got Wrong About DeepSeek

25:41 The US Government's Impact on AI & Chips

33:04 The Chinese Government’s Involvement in AI & Chips

35:13 Dominant Players in Chinese Semiconductor Market

39:12 The AI Supply Chain Beyond Semiconductors

43:53 Analog Semiconductors & Power Management

49:55 Winners, Losers, and Fakers in AI

57:03 Research Process for Hard Tech

01:01:25 Dispersion in Hard Tech Returns

01:03:31 Trading and Portfolio Construction at Analog Century

01:08:13 Market Neutral & Garnering Interest From Multi-Manager Platforms

01:12:20 Market Neutral vs Long/Short Investors

01:14:51 The Value of Partners and Team Continuity

01:16:42 Conclusion