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Catastrophe in the Name: ETF, Trades, AI

2025/6/27
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Matt Levine: 我认为自动赎回ETF本质上是一种结构性票据,它承诺投资者高收益,但同时也伴随着市场崩溃时可能损失全部本金的风险。这种产品通常被卖给亚洲的高净值投资者,他们往往会被高收益所吸引,但可能没有充分意识到潜在的风险。这种ETF的结构较为复杂,收益与市场表现挂钩,如果市场下跌超过一定幅度,投资者将面临重大损失。虽然这种产品可能在某些市场环境下表现良好,但其风险收益特征并不适合所有投资者。 Katie Greifeld: 我认为自动赎回ETF是一种“婴儿糖果”,它以高收益为诱饵,吸引那些寻求固定收益替代品的投资者。然而,与缓冲ETF不同,自动赎回ETF在市场崩溃时不会提供缓冲,投资者可能会损失大量资金。尽管如此,我仍然认为这种ETF可能会受到一些投资者的欢迎,尤其是在当前低利率环境下,人们对收益的渴望可能会超过对风险的担忧。但我也认为,这种产品的复杂性可能会让一些零售投资者难以理解其真正的风险。

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Well, we put out the Cliff Astin's episode, which was very well received, but we did get a few comments about. Where's the bird? There not being a bird update. Really quick. Cliff was not interested in your bird. Maybe he would have been, actually. I don't mean to say that. He would have rolled with it. Yeah, he would have rolled with it. Yeah. The bird's doing really well, flying really well. We need to work on perching. So he's in a big room. How interesting is a regressed on perching? Well, the thing is. He falls off.

It's hard. He's very comfortable perching on people. He's very comfortable perching on his cage. I put in an old cat tree that I had at my parents' house in the room where he is. He refuses to perch on it. And so if you open... I thought you were a bird. Yeah, you probably wouldn't perch on the cat tree. I would stay away from stuff that smells like cat. Yeah, maybe... I mean, my cat hasn't touched it in several years, so I thought maybe the cat smell had faded. Never. I think I need to get like a potting... As the owner of a Wheaton Terrier, I can tell you the cat smell never fades. Never fades. Never fades.

I think I need to get him like an indoor potted tree or something, because if you open the cage and then run to the other side of the room, he will fly directly to you. He will not land on anything other than his cage and humans. So we need to work on that.

Also, we're calling it a he, but it could be a ladybird. Is this whole project still in the service of like one day releasing him or her into the wild? Or is it more just like being nice if he wasn't clinging to your shoulder all the time? I think given that it's so attached to humans, it would be very hard to release this bird right now. It won't perch. I mean, we'll see when we get it a tree if it'll perch on the tree. I guess I'll stop asking that question. I guess that's just your bird now. There's no...

And its name is Bird. Bird. Hello, and welcome to the Money Stuff podcast, your weekly podcast where we talk about stuff related to money. I'm Matt Levine, and I write the Money Stuff column for Bloomberg Opinion. And I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for Bloomberg News and an anchor for Bloomberg Television.

Katie, I came to you this week and I was like, I want to talk about ETFs. Which sounded great. And you were like, sounds great. And I was like, I want to talk about auto-callable ETFs. And you're like, nah. You know, that's the thing. It really feels like a monkey's paw situation or something. I should be psyched that we're going. This is the thing. The thing about ETFs is that eventually all of financial products and ultimately all of human existence will be sucked into an ETF. And like, you have to be able to roll with it.

All of the possible forms of ETFs. You know, I'm like super comfortable with the idea that, you know, there's structured products in ETFs. Yeah. I know what a buffer ETF is. The concept of an auto-callable ETF is a little bit of a tougher chew, but the first one launched this past week. Yeah. Calamos. Calamos with JP Morgan is the swap counterparty. Yeah. So...

You did a breakdown in your money stuff column about how theoretically this would work. You provided an example. I still don't quite get it. Okay. So, like, if you're a JP Morgan, you're in the business of, like, manufacturing products that clients want to buy. One thing that clients come to you with a lot is we would like to hedge our stock market risk. It would be nice if when the market crashed, we could...

get some insurance. And so there's a big business in manufacturing insurance against market crashes because like fundamentally most people, most investors are long equities and they want to have insurance. Some of them want to have insurance against the market crashing. And how do you manufacture that insurance? Because no one wants to sell that insurance, right? Like who wants to be in the business of saying if the market crashes, I'll give you money. Like it's a terrible like wrong way situation to be in.

And so a lot of like the world of like equity derivatives trading is figuring out how to manufacture that sort of market risk insurance, crash insurance. And there are ways to do it. Like the dispersion trade and hedge funds is like a kitty's eyes are closing. It's like a complicated way to take single stock vol and turn it into index vol so that you can sell people insurance against market crashes. But like a classic way to do it is to say we're going to have

retail investors sell us insurance against market crashes. And the way retail investors sell insurance is essentially they buy bonds. And the bonds, you know, they put in $100, they get back $100,

$100 plus like a very high rate of interest, except if the market crashes, they get back like nothing or they lose money, right? So the thing they buy is sort of a catastrophe bond for market crash. Like if the market crashes, they don't get back all their money and the money they don't get back gets used to pay someone else's insurance.

One of the main, like the classic form of that is called an auto callable. It's just like the name of it. But it's basically you put in money. If the market stays flat or up or even goes down a little bit, you get back like 115 cents on a dollar in a year. And if the market goes down a lot, you know, you lose the amount of the market crash. And, you know, when JP Morgan sells that to you, gives them index volatility that they can turn around and sell to, you know, institutional clients who want to hedge against market crash.

So that is the auto call. It is a classic structured note, structured product that banks love to sell to retail or high net worth investors. And now it's gone into an ETF. Which was inevitable. I mean, buffers have been so popular. Yeah. I think actually the press release for this ETF said something like,

This is the latest flavor of boomer candy. Pretty much. Just the name of these kinds of ETFs now. Yeah. And it's like a little bit similar to a buffer in that it's like a fixed income replacement that like maybe has a little extra juice. But even still, you know, I'm prepared to be proven wrong, but I feel like this is a tougher sell. I should say it's different from a buffer in that a buffer is buffered and this is like in a crash, you lose your money.

Yeah, a buffer is, okay, you're giving up upside, but you're going to be cushioned, buffered on the downside. This is like you're getting a nice coupon, except in bad faith of the world, in which case you lose a lot of money. Yeah. So, I don't know. I mean, who is this for? Like, I hear...

People love them. I know. People love them. I know. I know. I just wonder. These are famously sold to Asian high net worth investors. And there was a story a while back that I remember I quoted about Korean auto callables where some broker says something like,

No one's ever only bought one. Once you buy them, you keep coming back for more because they're so great. You just love them so much. And it's like, you know, you think of the profile of it for a second and you're like, yeah, of course that's true, right? You keep buying them because you get paid a 15% yield. You keep buying them until there's one crash and then you stop, right? Yeah. Maybe. Yeah. But right, it pays a 15% yield unless the market crashes and then it just crashes.

Yeah. So Calamos is first out the gate. I think you have Innovator and First Trust have also filed for similar products. It's interesting that J.P. Morgan hasn't. J.P. Morgan sort of pioneered this category in the ETF space, this derivatives-powered defined outcome space. They have JEPI, which is a household name in my household. Maybe not in yours, but...

But then, you know, there were a bunch of JEPI copycats and you've also seen buffers rise up in the last few years. But I don't know. It's somewhat interesting to me that, you know, it's not JPMorgan that's... Well, JPMorgan is a swap counterparty. Yeah. Which means their vol that is being bought, they're buying the vol from the retail customers to sell to their institutional customers. Yeah. Yeah. But they're not the ones headlining the CTF necessarily. Yeah. Right. Right.

I never fully understood the structured notes business, but like part of it is like the retail and high net worth and like private wealth bankers.

Yeah.

There's a catastrophe bond ETF. Yes, I love this one. ILS is the ticker. ILS. Launched without a lead market maker. Yeah, and there's like a Bloomberg article about it from April saying...

The securities can be a hard sell for retail investors who have never before had to price the risk of a typhoon or earthquake. By the way, they're not pricing it now. They're a price taker. But anyway, they quote someone saying, the asset class does itself no favors by having catastrophe in the name. Right. At least it's clear, though. At least you kind of know the basic contours of what you're doing when it says catastrophe in the name. Here, it's called an auto callable, which is like...

Tells you nothing. No. And, you know, there's a big headline like, oh, this is how much yield you get. And you're like, oh, yield, great. But then you're like, oh, I can lose all my money. Yeah. Also, it's like, if you're into this sort of thing, which I know you're not. No, but go on. But if you're into this sort of thing, it's really cool because it's like, the structure of it is basically, you know, it's an auto call. So there's like,

knock-ins and knock-outs and stuff. Basically, if the index is down 40%, is when you start to lose money. Like, instead of getting the nice coupon... Which, like, very rarely happens, by the way. Okay, you say that. Yeah, I do. But the reason you say that is because you and I, and probably most people buying it, have an intuition of what the index is. But the index that they use is not the S&P. The index that they use is a, like...

volatility-targeted S&P. Oh, no. So basically they, like, lever the S&P to get you to a 35% volatility. Okay. Which is, like, in the ballpark of 2x levered. Okay. It's a little more than 2x levered. So a 20% drop in the S&P is not that common either, but it's, like... It happens. Like, yeah. And, like, you see 40%. You're like, ah, 40%. That never happens. But, like, if the index drops, like, 20-ish percent, you lose 40% of your money. Mm-hmm. So it's, like, the structure is not...

Like a lot of structured notes, it's like you can tell the story in a simple, you know, you're like, if the market is down 20%, you lose 20%. It's like very easy to understand. Here it's like,

You get this nice yield and sometimes you don't. And it's not like when the market is down 20%. It's like, yeah, like math and like sometimes you don't. Yeah. So it's an unintuitive product for retail investors. Yeah. I'm interested to see if, I mean, just given how popular these types of ETFs would be, if we were recording this in 2019, which we wouldn't, but I'd be like, oh, who's going to buy this? But I don't know. It could happen. It could see some uptake, but I don't really get it. So we'll see.

Like if you can't explain it in an elevator ride. You can explain it. It pays a high yield except when the market crashes. Except when the market crashes. Yeah, but it's, you know, if the index is above this level, if it's below this. Once you put in numbers, it's hard to explain. Well, yeah. It's not a lot of stuff. It's not like floors and caps and everything. It's just like it pays 15% except when the market's down more than X percent. Something else I was wondering, you know,

You know, this has typically been the domain of, you know, high net worth individuals. Who is making less money as a result of this being put in the ETF wrapper? Like, does JP Morgan care if they're selling these to Calamos versus selling this in some other structure? I always used to have the impression that structured notes had very juicy fees. Yeah. But actually, I think it's like kind of a competitive business. Interesting. It's not that juicy. Yeah. Well, this ETF charges like 74 basis points.

Yeah, but with anything like this, there's a lot of mouths to feed. They're doing a swap with J.P. Morgan, which is probably J.P. Morgan expects to make a certain amount of money on the swap. I don't know. It's hard to exactly compare the pricing of this to a structured note, but I don't get the sense that... I think these are very comparable products, right? These are sort of advisor-sold, upper-end retail products. And so they're all kind of competitive spaces, but this is not like...

wildly undercutting some super lucrative, uncompetitive business, right? Like, Structured Notes is like, everyone's kind of in on that game. Okay, good. You were worried. J.P. Morgan isn't losing out on anything. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Should we move on to the next J.P. Morgan story? I guess. The private credit trading story. Private credit trading. It's so good. Yeah. So, right, there's a Bloomberg story this week by Ellen Schneider and Carmen Arroyo about how… Such a fun read. J.P. Morgan has stood up this entire private credit trading desk, which is so smart. Like, getting in early on what is quite plausibly going to be the next bank loan trading, like a huge business deal.

But unfortunately, they don't do any trades. No one wants to trade with them. This is how you have to start, right? Yeah. Yeah. It's not that no one wants to trade with them. It's that the product doesn't trade. Yeah. It's not entirely true. Some of it is that no one wants to trade with J.P. Morgan. And there are some private credit firms trying to stand up trading desks. And maybe it's just the competitive dynamic. But I think 95% of it is that these loans don't trade. And people don't want them to trade. Yeah. And so J.P. Morgan...

constantly sends out runs saying, we're looking to buy $5 million chunks of like these 40 loans. And here are our bids. And everyone's like, no, thank you. Shooting out those runs into the void. And then they're calling and saying, hey, just want to see if you got my run. And everyone's like, goodbye. God. Yeah, it's really bad. It's great. The human psychology of that is just brutal. I know, but it's what you got to do, right? And you know that like the people doing that are like, well, this is my shot at like,

being the person who invented a whole new category and bringing in, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue and being a superstar. But one, it's not guaranteed that it'll work out. And two, it is guaranteed that before it works out, I will spend a lot of time cold calling people and getting nowhere. Yeah. And I mean, as a journalist, I sympathize with that. Jeez Louise, I hate cold calls. As a not very good investment banker in my former life, I think about like how long,

One could have zero and one's P&L. Yeah. You know, like they've got some runway, right? No one's expecting them to do a lot of trades this month. Yeah. At some point, someone will be like, hey, guys, where are the trades? There's a few interesting reasons in the article that are raised for why J.P. Morgan is getting shut out. One is that

the private credit firms want big banks to stay out of their turf. I don't think that's the main reason. It's presented as a reason. That's part of it, the competitive dynamic of like, we want to freeze our banks. And that might be part of it. I think the main reasons... Okay, so I think an important reason that the article highlights that I think is the second most important reason is that this is what Cliff was talking about when he came on. Nice callback. Private markets...

are very attractive to a lot of investors because they are less volatile than public markets. And if you think about that for a fraction of a second, or if you talk to Cliff, you'll be like, wait a minute. It's magic. They're not actually less volatile. It's just they don't trade. So you don't see the fluctuations in the values that you see in public markets because they trade constantly. And so nonetheless, like, you know, as Cliff has written about, like, there is...

For some classes of investors, like a real value in not having to mark down your positions. Yeah. And if private credit loans traded constantly in a liquid market that everyone could see, it would be harder to not mark down your positions when they went down in the market. Yeah. And then some of the perceived advantage of private credit would go away. Yeah.

Nobody trying to stuff private credit into 401ks is going to be all that excited about, like, increasing the volatility of the market. So that is, I think, the second most important reason private credit doesn't work. But even still, I mean, you have Apollo trying to do that, trying to make trading a thing. But they're also trying to shove private credit into 401ks. Yeah. So this is the tension, right? Like, you don't want volatility. Yeah. But, like, you want retail customers. And it is hard to build a retail product now.

That is completely illiquid. Yeah. Like, it makes sense. There's, like, an economic intuition for, like, you can put private credit into your 401k or your target date fund, and you'll know with certainty that you won't need the money for 30 years so that you can take the illiquidity risk. You don't need liquidity because you're a long-term saver. Right. But nobody actually believes that because, like, retail is...

Like, it's hard to lock up retail for, you know, 10 years. Right. And so in practice, to have a retail product, you need something like at least an interval fund and maybe an ETF, right? And an ETF, you need trading, right? Like, you need to be able to trade this stuff. So, yeah, like, there is definitely a push for trading of private credit to get it into retail. So, right. So it goes the other way. But I do think the most important reason that it's hard to trade private credit is that the deal that private credit firms are offering to investors

like private equity sponsors, is we will look you in the eye and write you this loan, and we will own that loan for the duration of the loan. And if you have problems, you come to us, and we won't be jerks because we're repeat players in this game. And so once private credit trades, there's opportunities for...

vulture funds and activists and like, you know, loan to own investors. And so it's less pleasant for the private equity sponsors. And so, you know, as they say in the article, you know, unlike most bonds, private credit loans require the approval of the lead lender and the

private equity sponsor to trade. Yeah. So even if J.P. Morgan could get someone to sell to them, they'd have to go to the sponsor and say, hey, can we buy this loan? The sponsor could say no. Yeah. Which puts a damper on the trade. So they have veto power, basically. Yeah. It's not just veto power. It's not just like

We don't want our loans to end up in the hands of, like, activists we're scared of. It's also just, like, we want our loans to be held by five people we negotiated with rather than, like, any random person. Yeah. Because we want to be able to have a, like, relationship with them if we need to, you know, extend or refinance the loan or, you know, if we run into problems or we need to restructure. Like, we want to be able to talk to people who we know and who, like, we have a long-term repeat relationship with rather than, you know—

Some random CLO manager. Yeah. And so that makes it hard to trade private credit. So how does this evolve? I know that you're in the camp, it seems, that it kind of feels inevitable. Yeah, I think so. But there's like a real cut argument. Yeah. And you also have, I mean, like you said, the private equity sponsors don't want this. You also have like the likes of Blue Owl who thinks that private should stay private. I mean, like, how do you see this evolving? Will there be a corner? Yeah.

that remains in the shadows? Or do you think that everything eventually will be out in the open and traded? You know, I think it's going to be contractual. And so like, you know, you see a little of this in the broadly syndicated loan market where some loans are very restrictive about who can buy them. And, you know,

For the most part, people think of the broadly syndicated loan market as like, you know, kind of trading and like banks have trading desks and it trades and it's, you know, you can get like marks and stuff, but it's not as liquid as the bond market. And like some loans, you know, have long restricted lists where people can't buy it. You can have that in private credit, right? Where like some sponsors, some deals don't trade very much because they're very restrictive and other people say no.

I don't really care. I will get a better price if I allow more trading with my loans. And so I'll just take the better price. And it's like, interestingly, like there aren't that many private credit firms and there aren't that many private equity sponsors. Like it's all kind of like oligopolistic. And so you can imagine like, you know, people just come into arrangements and say, okay, well, you know, or like you, you,

Have your reasons for borrowing from firms that really don't allow trading or you have your reasons for borrowing from firms that love trading and, like, you know, maybe you get a better price with more liquidity and, you know, all the other stuff. Yeah. Another possibility, I've gotten a couple of reader emails about this, is, like, you can sort of, like, halfway allow private credit trading where instead of...

selling the loan to someone. You sell like a participation loan where the original lender keeps like the servicing rights and keeps the relationship with the borrower, but someone else is buying the economic value of the loan. That's like sort of a compromise that might work and might, you know, give you some of the things that you want, like

letting the original lenders cash out a little bit or de-risk a little bit. It's like a little hard to imagine because like with leveraged loans, a lot of what people do want is like the control rights and the servicing rights and the ability to like have a seat at the table in the restructuring. But maybe that's the way for it to go. Yeah. It'll be fun to find out.

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Katie, this is my last podcast because... Because you got the call from Mark Zuckerberg? I got the call from Mark Zuckerberg. Me too. I think it was fake, though. It's hard to know because apparently we're not alone in thinking that our Mark Zuckerberg calls were fake. I'm just kidding, but in fact... Oh, I'm not. No, I'm kidding. It does seem to be the case that every single AI researcher in the world has gotten Mark Zuckerberg sliding into their DMs. Yeah. And...

95% of them have been like, that's Lampmark Zuckerberg. Which is weird, right? Yeah. Which is weird because I don't know. AI is so weird. Like just the concept? No, the job market. Oh, yeah. I was writing a little bit about this. I'm used to the financial industry where the job...

is to pay people enough that they don't leave for your competitors, but not so much that they leave to like sit on a beach, right? Right. Like you need them to still want more money, but not be able to get it elsewhere, right? And like, you know, there's like a range, right? Like there's like, if you pay them more than X, they won't go to your competitors. And if you pay them less than Y, they won't quit to go to the beach. And like, you know, Y is greater than X. In AI, it's like, it's flipped. Like in AI to out-compete competitors

your competitors for the best AI talent, you need to pay the best AI talent $100 million. Yeah. It's an impossible sum. And like a 28-year-old, right? Yeah. I love my job, but like... Yeah, for sure. If I got $100 million, I wouldn't do it anymore. Yeah. Yeah. That's true. Because that's too much money. So are you... You don't need to work anymore. Are you implying it's just more important that they don't work at OpenAI? Yeah.

What do you mean? Listening to your talk, it sounds like you're saying that Mark Zuckerberg is hiring these people just so they're not working in open AI. No, they don't keep working. It's very bizarre to me. I assume there's some sort of structure on their compensation where they don't just get a bag of money on the first day. And then leave. But no, I don't think he's hiring them to get them out of open AI. I think he's genuinely trying to build a giant AI research project. Isn't it the super intelligence? Super intelligence, sure. Thank you. And it's apparently intended to include every AI researcher in the world at $100 million a pop.

And it's amazing. I think their desks are also going to be close to Mark Zuckerberg. They're going to be physically close to him as well. And they're going to be made out of diamonds. Yeah. I truly... Like, I'm used to finance, but in tech, it's like a famous concept of resting and vesting, right? It's famously like there are people who...

By virtue of being early employees at successful companies, don't need to work anymore. Yeah. And in AI, there are only those people. Yeah. Every person who works in AI doesn't need to work anymore. It's so strange. They must all be really motivated by building...

Yeah. I mean, I just find... I'm exaggerating. I'm sure there's like some listeners who are like, I only get paid like $8 million a year and I work in AI. And it's really like, you're really exaggerating. I agree. I'm really exaggerating. But you keep reading stories about people getting really enormous contracts. Yeah, it's super disheartening. No, it's great. I love when people get paid a lot of money. It's just like rising tides lift all boats. You're just a good guy. I find Mark Zuckerberg just a fascinating individual. I find Meta fascinating as well.

You know, Meta used to be called Facebook. Yeah, really? And then he spent so much money on the Metaverse, tanked the stock. This was a huge thing. Like, how much money he was funneling in for no return. Then they had to do the year of efficiency or whatever. They fired a bunch of people. I do wonder if we're watching this build up again when it comes specifically to Meta. Like, as a general matter, I kind of think that, like,

AI is the real version of like the metaverse or the fake version, you know, like, yeah, I don't know. I think AI is more real than the metaverse. I just feel like like the grown up version. I just feel like you can look, look at like

and like ask them to do useful things and they do useful things and you're like, oh, that was useful, right? And then like the metaverse, it's like, ah, I don't have legs in a video, you know, like. Here's the Eiffel Tower. Right. Like the metaverse was obviously intuitively stupid the whole time. I don't know. But he spent

So much money. No, I know. We're not cutting this. This is good. I don't know if I've made this point on the podcast before, but I truly, truly, truly believe that if he had just waited like a year or two, it would be AI platforms. I feel like in his heart of heart, does he regret naming it meta platforms?

At some level, he must. At another level, meta platforms is a fine name for whatever nonsense you're doing. It's fine. If you needed metaverse platforms, terrible. That's true. It's like meta. Yeah, I feel like everyone has kind of forgotten the meta. The reverse of the metaverse. I do seriously wonder, though, if we're watching round two of this, though, this buildup, and that in a couple of years, maybe we're going to be talking about massive layoffs.

And, you know, Meta's next year of efficiency... I don't think the Hush will lay off any AI researchers because, like...

If it stops being fun, they'll just leave because they have $100 million. That's true. That's true. It is interesting to contrast how hard Mark Zuckerberg and Meta are going at AI versus like Apple, where the narrative is very much that they've fallen behind. And then you think about Microsoft, which has just been shedding thousands and thousands of jobs. Like Meta stands. Microsoft has like the open AI, well, sort of.

It's complicated, but Microsoft sort of has open AI as its AI horse. Yeah, that's true. Just simply making the point that meta is moving in a lot of different ways than some of its magnificent seven peers. Sure, right. No, I'm sure that a lot of the peers are having the same thought you are, which is like...

Billions and billions of dollars to hire 20 people is surely not an efficient way to do anything. Yeah. Seems like shareholders are on board for the time being, though. I think enough reasonable people think there's some sort of winner-take-all aspect to this. It's not insane to be like, we're going to spend billions and billions of dollars on

to hire every AI researcher so that no one else can have them. I mean, it's a little insane, but it's like, it's within the parameters. I do want to say, I've been talking about people getting paid $100 million, but that's not the cap. There's like, what is it? Scale AI that they bought? Yeah, that's the other thing. They sort of bought for $14 billion. Yeah. Of which not all of it goes to the handful of founders they wanted, but...

Those people are getting paid more than $100 million to come work for Meta. It's not called salary. It's called, like, acquisition. I think you jokingly referred to 28-year-olds, but isn't the co-founder? I think he's 28. This is the thing. Like, for one thing, these salaries are so much higher than, like, 28-year-olds usually get paid in, like, the financial industry. Mm-hmm.

But for another thing, like I joked about this, but it's kind of true. Like you work in finance, like you start out making like a nice living, but like you see everyone around you with like their compounds and amigans and you're like, oh, I want that. And then like as you move up the ladder, you get paid like millions of dollars, but you're like, I need more millions of dollars to have the lifestyle that I've come to expect. Right.

In AI, like all these people started two years ago. They don't need any more. I don't think it's like a bizarre. So just retire? It's just like finance is a good job of creating the wants in people that lead them to want to keep working, even if they're making tens of millions of dollars a year. Yeah. I guess that's true in the tech industry, too.

But it seems less reliable. Like all these people are right out of grad school and they're getting paid $100 million. They weren't getting paid $100 million five years ago. They weren't starting at firms where the CEOs of those firms were making hundreds of millions of dollars because five years ago, AI people weren't making hundreds of millions of dollars. This is vaguely reminding me of a conversation I believe that we had on this podcast a couple of weeks ago about how

Like, it feels like every tech founder or, like, social media site, like, there has to be, like, some element of, like, we're saving the world or, like, we're changing humanity or something like that. I wish I could remember what exactly we were talking about. And I think I made the point, or at least I was thinking, like, I wish that they would just say, I'm making a social media site that I'm going to sell ads on or something. Like, I feel like with these people that are making so much money, though, maybe it is true that, like, they view their...

is like higher than... Well, I think that AI, I mean, whatever, like I think AI is, like there is some level at which you are like ultimately selling ads on social media sites. Right. But like not as much. Yeah. No, no, no. And I think that like there are a lot of grandiose claims about like the effects on humanity of like, you know, these LLMs. But like, is this true? I don't know, man. It seems like a more fundamental thing to work on than...

No, this seems a little bit more... You could have a real, you know, we're changing the world. You could have a real mission statement when it comes to this. But I can't remember what exactly we're changing the world. Also, you can get paid $100 million. That's really important. Yeah, that's true. I would take one year at $100 million and then I'd probably leave. Well, that's what I'm saying. Yeah, we're in alignment. I feel like... Okay, so I feel like... That's why we both picked up the phone call from Mark Zuckerberg.

And that was the Money Stuff Podcast. I'm Matt Levine. And I'm Katie Greifeld. You can find my work by subscribing to the Money Stuff newsletter on Bloomberg.com. And you can find me on Bloomberg TV every day on open interest between 9 to 11 a.m. Eastern. We'd love to hear from you. You can send an email to moneypod at Bloomberg.net. Ask us a question and we might answer it on air. You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now and leave us a review. It helps more people find the show.

The Money Stuff Podcast is produced by Anna Masarakis and Moses Andam. Our theme music was composed by Blake Maples. Brendan Francis Noonan is our executive producer. And Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening to the Money Stuff Podcast. We'll be back next week with more stuff.

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