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cover of episode Vol.126 野生熊十万个都知道之美帝误击美机——很平常嘛

Vol.126 野生熊十万个都知道之美帝误击美机——很平常嘛

2025/1/4
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一知半解

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大雄老师
春哥
Topics
大雄老师:美军误击友军事件并非个例,历史上发生过多次类似事件。误击事件的核心在于敌我识别系统出现问题,导致己方飞机被误认为敌机。此次误击事件发生在夜间,战斗机执行非作战任务(伙伴加油),警惕性不高,目标固定,增加了误击可能性。胡赛武装与美军长期对峙,增加了误击风险,因为双方都处于高度戒备状态。敌我识别系统并非完美,可能存在技术或流程问题,导致误击。即使敌我识别系统识别出目标为友军,操作人员仍可能基于自身判断而发射攻击,导致误击。全自动交战系统存在极高风险,容易导致误击,历史上曾发生过多次全自动交战系统误击己方飞机的案例。敌我识别系统虽然存在缺陷,但仍然具有重要作用,保留该系统是必要的。误击事件并非美军独有,其他国家军队也发生过类似事件。敌我识别系统本身就是一个攻防对抗系统,会不断演化,并产生新的问题。敌我识别系统虽然可靠性不断提高,但由于其复杂性,仍然无法完全避免误击事件。敌我识别系统的历史悠久,其复杂性导致误击事件难以避免。不同军种之间敌我识别系统可能不兼容,导致误击。援助国可能出于政治或其他考虑,不会优先考虑敌我识别系统的兼容性问题。长期高强度作战可能导致人员疲劳和失误,增加误击风险。误击事件虽然会发生,但可以通过技术和流程手段尽量避免。即使建立统一的敌我识别系统,也无法完全消除误击风险,例如叛逃事件可能导致敌我识别系统信息泄露。别连科叛逃事件导致苏联不得不更换所有飞机的敌我识别设备,说明即使是统一的系统也可能因为意外事件而失效。苏联也曾发生过误击民航飞机的事件,表明误击事件并非个别现象。防空系统过于谨慎或松懈都可能导致误击。建立覆盖全国的雷达网非常困难,这解释了为什么会出现民航飞机未被雷达监测到的情况。MH17事件的调查结果存在争议,难以确定是误击还是故意行为。阿塞拜疆航空E190飞机坠毁事件很可能是误击造成的。阿塞拜疆航空E190飞机坠毁事件可能是因为俄罗斯防空导弹误击造成的。民航飞机由于缺乏军用敌我识别设备,更容易成为战争中的无辜受害者。 春哥:国内对美军误击己方飞机事件反应平淡,美民众也较为平静接受。美国新闻报道倾向于从正面角度报道自身事件,而负面报道其他国家,特别是中国。 supporting_evidences 春哥: '我倒没有特别在意因为在新闻上也能看到但是好像国内并没有太强烈的反应从新闻上看是这样就是有新闻但是也没怎么当红就好像美帝人民也就平静接受我感觉是这样美帝人民也就是认为这就是属于战争中发生的意外虽然让人难以接受但是这是川普的话说这是什么生活的一部分' 春哥: '凡是美国的新闻他一定会从一个好的角度去报道他凡是其他世界其他地方或者最主要的就是中国的新闻他一定会从一个坏的方面去报道就比如说这次这个新闻他一定会强调虽然我们不记了但是这个飞行员都弹射逃生了只受了一点轻伤他一定会强调这一点'

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What happened on December 22nd involving a US Navy F/A-18 fighter jet?

A US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet, which had just taken off from the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, was shot down by a missile fired from the USS Gettysburg, a guided-missile cruiser, over the Red Sea. Both pilots ejected and survived, with one sustaining minor injuries.

Why is the incident of the US Navy F/A-18 being shot down considered a friendly fire incident?

The incident is considered friendly fire because the USS Gettysburg, part of the same carrier strike group as the F/A-18, mistakenly identified the fighter jet as a hostile target and launched a Standard Missile-2 (SM-2) to intercept it. This occurred during a routine refueling mission, highlighting a failure in the Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system.

What is the Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system and how does it work?

The IFF system is a radar-based identification system used to distinguish between friendly and hostile aircraft. It works by sending an encrypted signal to an aircraft. If the aircraft is friendly, it responds with a coded signal confirming its identity. If no response or an incorrect response is received, the system may classify the aircraft as hostile. However, technical glitches, human error, or signal interference can lead to misidentification.

What historical examples of friendly fire incidents are mentioned in the podcast?

The podcast mentions several historical friendly fire incidents, including the 2003 incident where a US Patriot missile system in Iraq shot down a British Tornado fighter jet and a US F/A-18. Another example is the 2023 incident where a Russian S-300 missile system shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet. Additionally, the 1988 incident where the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians, is also discussed.

What are the challenges in preventing friendly fire incidents?

Preventing friendly fire incidents is challenging due to the complexity of modern warfare, the reliance on automated systems like IFF, and human factors such as fatigue or misjudgment. Technical issues, such as system malfunctions or signal interference, can also lead to errors. Additionally, the high-stress environment of combat zones can exacerbate these risks, making it difficult to completely eliminate friendly fire incidents.

What is the significance of the 1976 Belenko defection incident in relation to IFF systems?

The 1976 Belenko defection incident, where a Soviet pilot flew a MiG-25 to Japan, exposed the vulnerabilities of the Soviet IFF system. Following the defection, the Soviet Union had to spend significant resources to replace and upgrade its IFF systems across its military aircraft. This incident highlights the risks of relying on a single, potentially compromised IFF system, especially in the context of espionage or defection.

What are some examples of civilian aircraft being mistakenly shot down?

Several examples of civilian aircraft being mistakenly shot down include the 1988 Iran Air Flight 655 incident, where the USS Vincennes shot down the plane, killing 290 people. Another example is the 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which was shot down over Ukraine, likely by a surface-to-air missile. Additionally, the 2020 Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was shot down by Iranian forces shortly after takeoff, resulting in 176 deaths.

What role does human error play in friendly fire incidents?

Human error plays a significant role in friendly fire incidents, as operators may misinterpret data, fail to follow protocols, or make incorrect judgments under pressure. For example, in the December 22nd incident, the USS Gettysburg's crew may have been fatigued or overly cautious due to prolonged engagement with Houthi threats, leading to the misidentification of the F/A-18 as a hostile target. Human factors, such as stress and fatigue, can amplify the likelihood of errors in high-stakes environments.

Chapters
本期节目讨论了美军误击事件频发的问题,分析了其背后的技术原因和人为因素。从敌我识别系统的原理、缺陷,到全自动交战模式的风险,以及人员疲劳和紧张等因素,都可能导致误击事件的发生。
  • 美军F/A-18战斗机被己方导弹击落
  • 敌我识别系统存在技术缺陷和人为操作失误的可能性
  • 全自动交战模式存在极高风险
  • 人员疲劳和紧张等因素也可能导致误击

Shownotes Transcript

    12月22日号,一架刚从“哈里·S·杜鲁门”号航空母舰起飞的美国海军F/A-18“大黄蜂”战斗机,当天在红海上空被“葛底斯堡”号导弹巡洋舰发射的防空导弹击落。

    这种新闻怎么能少了暴论熊的解读,误击友军,误击同编队的友军,误击民航,这是否是美帝衰落的象征?

    历史上有多少误击友军,多少误击民航的事件?

    为什么技术上如此难以解决?

    防空防空,防一场空又是为什么?

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