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Why Big Tech Wants Nuclear Power

2024/12/17
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Clay Sell
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Jeff Brumfield
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Regina Barber
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Sharon Squassoni
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Ted Nordhaus
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Regina Barber: 本节目探讨了大型科技公司投资核电的原因,以及这种做法是否能够有效解决人工智能带来的巨大能源需求和气候变化问题。人工智能程序的运行需要消耗大量电力,一些研究人员估计,使用人工智能进行搜索的耗电量是普通谷歌搜索的十倍。大型科技公司最初计划通过可再生能源实现碳中和目标,但由于人工智能的高能耗,这种方法行不通。下一代数据中心耗电量巨大,可再生能源无法满足其需求,而且可再生能源面临巨大的能源储存问题,目前的技术无法解决。 Jeff Brumfield: 核电虽然存在风险,例如熔毁和核废料,但它可以产生大量的电力,且不会排放二氧化碳。三哩岛核电站的事故表明,即使发生事故,核电站也可以在修复后继续运行。微软购买了三哩岛核电站的电力,使得该电站得以重启,这表明大型科技公司正在积极投资核电。然而,一个核电站的电力不足以满足所有人工智能数据中心的需求,因此,这些公司还需要投资新型核反应堆。X-Energy公司设计的模块化小型核反应堆不易发生熔毁,但这种设计尚未经过实际验证,存在不确定性,而且使用氦气作为冷却剂,与传统反应堆不同,存在技术挑战。 Ted Nordhaus: 下一代数据中心耗电量巨大,可再生能源无法满足其需求。要实现碳中和目标,仅依靠可再生能源是不够的,因为规模问题和能源储存问题。 Brian Hansen: 三哩岛核电站的重启,得益于微软的长期电力购买协议,这为投资提供了财务保障。 Clay Sell: X-Energy公司设计的模块化小型核反应堆具有不易发生熔毁的优势,但这种设计尚未经过实际验证,存在不确定性。 Sharon Squassoni: 核电项目往往延期且超支,大型科技公司可能低估了投资核电的风险。在核电站建成之前,人工智能数据中心将继续使用天然气发电,导致碳排放增加。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why do big tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon need so much electricity?

AI programs are extremely power-hungry, with some estimates suggesting that an AI search can use 10 times more energy than a regular Google search. The next generation of data centers could consume as much power as 1 million U.S. households.

Why are big tech companies turning to nuclear power for their energy needs?

Nuclear power offers a low-carbon solution that can deliver large amounts of electricity without emitting greenhouse gases. This aligns with tech companies' commitments to reduce or eliminate their carbon footprints by 2030.

What challenges do big tech companies face in relying on renewable energy for their data centers?

Renewable energy sources like solar and wind require significant energy storage, which is currently expensive and not yet scalable. Massive batteries would be needed to power data centers at night or during low-wind periods, making renewables less feasible for their energy needs.

What is the significance of Microsoft's investment in Three Mile Island's nuclear plant?

Microsoft's power purchase agreement with Three Mile Island allows the plant to restart operations, providing around 800 megawatts of electricity. This investment gives the plant financial certainty and helps meet the energy demands of Microsoft's data centers.

What are the key differences between traditional nuclear reactors and the new designs being pursued by tech companies?

New reactors, like X-Energy's design, use small, modular units with pebble-shaped uranium fuel and high-pressure helium as a coolant. Unlike traditional reactors, these designs aim to be meltdown-proof and do not require large cooling towers.

Why might nuclear power not be the best immediate solution for big tech's energy needs?

Nuclear projects are known for being slow and expensive due to strict regulatory scrutiny. While tech companies need quick solutions to meet their growing energy demands, nuclear reactors take years to build and may not be operational fast enough to prevent increased emissions from natural gas plants.

What is the potential environmental impact if tech companies fail to transition quickly to low-carbon energy sources?

If AI data centers continue to rely on natural gas plants until nuclear reactors are operational, greenhouse gas emissions will rise, potentially exacerbating climate change. The urgency of the AI revolution clashes with the slow pace of nuclear development.

Shownotes Transcript

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Hey there, short wavers. Regina Barber here. And today I'm joined by NPR's most radioactive correspondent, Jeff Brumfield. Hey, Jeff. Hi, Gina. Okay. So, Jeff, we joke about this because you cover all things nuclear. You also sometimes cover artificial intelligence or AI. And recently, those two sides of my beat have been coming much closer together because the big tech companies who are all leading this AI revolution, I'm talking about

Meta, Google, Amazon, they're also making big investments in nuclear power right now. And they're doing it because they need a lot more juice to run their AI programs. Some researchers estimate that a search using AI uses as much as 10 times the power of a normal Google search. Yeah. I mean, when I think of AI and nuclear power together, it just sounds like this dystopian sci-fi movie. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, in all the movies, you know, Terminator or whatever, when the AI gets a hold of the nukes, it all goes wrong. But in real life, we got a way to go because before AI can somehow use its nuclear power to destroy us all, Silicon Valley has to remake the nuclear industry, which has been, frankly, stagnant for years. ♪

So today on the show, the AI and nuclear power collab. Why does big tech want to go nuclear? And is it really going to help with the big electricity crunch that's coming along with our AI revolution? You're listening to Shortwave, the science podcast from NPR. ♪

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We can keep this going every week, bringing you stories you're curious about, stories you didn't know you were curious about, stories that are fun to tell your friends, stories that make you think about your place in the universe. Join today. Go to plus.npr.org, plus.npr.org. That link is in our episode notes. Thanks for listening. Back to the show. Okay, so Jeff, let's start with the problem. Like, why do these companies need all of this electricity? Yeah.

Yeah. So this all goes back 10 years or more when big tech companies started making some big commitments over climate change. That by 2030, Microsoft will be carbon negative. Apple will be 100% carbon neutral for our entire end-to-end footprint. You know, all these companies accept that climate change is real and they've pledged to reduce or eliminate their greenhouse gas emissions. And

And I wanted to dig into those pledges, so I called up Ted Nordhaus. He's executive director of the Breakthrough Institute, a Bay Area nonprofit that tracks some of these commitments. And he said initially, at least, the companies all wanted to do this with renewables. They were all focused on being 100% renewable energy powered.

Now, this isn't normally done by building a bunch of solar panels next to a data center or something like that. What these companies did instead was buy power from renewable companies who then just put it out on the grid. But the tech firms could still claim that they were, in effect, covering their emissions with these power purchase agreements, which is what these things were called. Okay, so they're buying lots of renewable power. The wind and solar companies were using those profits to build

Because AI is just way more power hungry than existing technology. The next generation of data centers are going to be total electricity hogs. Some of the next generation centers will end up using as much power as around 1 million U.S. households.

There's going to be a huge amount of new demand from these AI data centers. And if you take seriously that you're going to try to achieve these commitments, you're not going to do it with renewable energy.

The problem really here is scale. I mean, you need lots of energy storage, for example. You'd have to have absolutely massive batteries on site, say, to run a solar-powered data center at night. And the battery tech isn't there yet. And also, there's just a lot of demand for batteries elsewhere. So it'd end up being really, really expensive. Okay. Yeah. Storage problem is huge, right? It's been going on forever. But anyway...

I do understand why they need a lot of power and they don't want to produce greenhouse gases. But why are they specifically focusing on nuclear power? Well, I think the best way to answer that question is with a field trip to the most well-known nuclear plant in America. I'm talking about Three Mile Island. The one that melted down.

That's right, in 1979. This was the biggest nuclear accident in American history. The reactor overheated. The fuel started to melt. It was mostly contained, but more than 100,000 people had to evacuate. But here's the thing that most people don't realize. Only one of the reactors at Three Mile Island melted down. The other reactor was restarted, and it produced power for decades.

It did it without emitting greenhouse gases because nuclear power, for all its risks, like meltdowns and nuclear waste, generates just staggering amounts of electricity without any carbon dioxide emissions. Okay, so you recently went to a reactor at Three Mile Island, the one that didn't melt down, right?

Yeah, that's right. I was on a press tour with a handful of other reporters, and our guide was Brian Hansen, the chief generation officer for the Utility Constellation, which owns the plant. And Brian has a very close personal connection to TMI because in 2019, he was the guy who had to close it down. It was such a hard day for me emotionally, watching the plant shut down.

It had become uneconomical to operate. Basically, nuclear energy is more expensive than natural gas and renewables in today's electricity market. And Three Mile Island became a casualty of that reality. So they actually had one of the operators who'd restarted the plant after the 1979 accident turn the reactor off. And then they just put the whole thing in mothballs.

I had to certify a letter to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that we weren't going to operate the plant or load fuel again. And I actually sat on it for a couple days. And my team was asking me, well, what are you waiting for? You know, I'm like...

It was just emotional. Wow. But I take it you're not taking this tour just to look at an empty nuclear plant. Like, what's happening now? Yeah, right. Well, I mean, what's going on is in September, Microsoft came along and signed one of those power purchase agreements I was talking about, specifically for Three Mile Island.

And all of a sudden, they were back in business. They're now working with regulators to restart the plant. They're trying to hire more people. And Constellation's given it a new name, the Crane Clean Energy Center. This is the Crane Clean Energy Center turbine deck.

This is where the electricity was generated for decades using steam from the plant's nuclear reactor. And in a few years, Brian says it's going to start again. I talked about the steam generators. We did all those inspections, did the maintenance. Those are ready to go for plant startup in 2028 already.

Now, restarting this plant isn't cheap. Constellation projects it's going to cost around $1.6 billion with a B. But they're willing to make the investment thanks to Microsoft. Microsoft has purchased the power of this unit for the next 20 years. That gives us the financial certainty to invest our money.

Wow. Okay. So Three Mile Island is coming back online, but is one nuclear power plant going to be enough power to power all these like AI data centers? No. In fact, TMI puts out around 800 megawatts of electricity and that all by itself is around the power consumption of what a single AI data center might eat. So these companies are going to need even more. Yeah. It's just the amount of power is really staggering here.

And that's why Google, Meta, Amazon are all making investments towards new kinds of nuclear reactors. And these reactors will look nothing like the old ones. Wow. Nothing like Homer's job. No, exactly. Exactly.

So to get a sense of that, I went just outside of D.C. to the headquarters of a company called X-Energy. It recently got somewhere around $250 million from Amazon for its reactor design. Clay Sell is the CEO. X-Energy has developed a design very different from what most people think about in terms of large, traditional, conventional nuclear power plants. So what do you think about in terms of large, traditional nuclear power plants, Regina?

Well, Mr. Burns, he owns the power plant in Springfield and it has those like big, like, I don't know, like hourglass looking things, right? Cooling towers. Yeah. Cooling towers. Yeah. All the cooling towers and like the inanimate carbon rods. And I don't know. That's absolutely right. You know, I mean, you've just described Three Mile Island, actually, which I think was the template for The Simpsons. Yeah.

But this reactor won't have any big cooling towers. And critically, the fuel is not going to be in these rods, which is what traditional plants put them in, these long rods of uranium. X-Energy plans to run off little round balls of uranium instead. We put it in a round pebble about the size of a cue ball.

And we fill the reactor core with these pebbles. And they flow through the core like gumballs through a gumball machine. Clay says these reactors are going to be small and modular. And it's going to actually take several units to power a data center. But crucially, he says, this system has one really big advantage. The plant cannot melt down completely.

Okay, so a meltdown-proof reactor. I mean, it sounds great. Yeah, it sounds great. I mean, the question is, can they make it work? The thing is only on paper right now. You know, there's never been a reactor like it built in the U.S. before. There is one operating in China, but that's only a demo project. And so, you know, it's a question of, you know, can they make it work?

And there's a lot of things that can make this really tricky to get running. For example, normal reactors use water to cool their core. The water runs through. It turns into steam. The steam goes into a heat exchanger. And that heat runs a turbine. It's actually quite similar to how other kinds of power plants work. But this reactor is going to use high-pressure helium gas. It's a completely new coolant.

Also, these pebbles that they're fabricating haven't been used as reactor fuel before either. There's just a lot more uncertainty in the design. And so it's going to take time to make sure it works and then convince the regulators to let it operate. OK, so let's get back to the original point of all this. Like these companies are trying to fight climate change. This is what they say. Is time really on their side here? You know, that's exactly the question to ask, right? This AI revolution is happening right now. I mean, it's at breakneck speeds.

And because of accidents like Three Mile Island, nothing in the nuclear industry ever happens quickly. Everything has to be scrutinized and done very, very carefully, regulated, overseen. These are just two super different engineering cultures. And the way I've come to think about it is Silicon Valley loves to go fast and break things. The nuclear industry has to move very, very, very slowly because nothing can ever break. Yeah.

Yeah. So Sharon Squassoni is a research professor at George Washington University who studied nuclear power's potential to fight climate change. And she wonders whether Silicon Valley really knows what they're getting into. You know, I'm happy that they're looking for low-carbon electricity generation options.

But I'm really perplexed. Given the history of all the nuclear projects that have run behind schedule and gone over costs, she really wonders whether this is the right investment to be making. You need the biggest bang for the buck in the shortest amount of time. And nuclear is not that. If that's where you're putting your money on, you're consigning us to, you know, severe climate change.

Because until these reactors are up and running, Gina, these AI data centers are going to operate using power from natural gas plants. And that means emissions are going to go up. Jeff, thank you so much for bringing us this story. Yeah, for sure.

This episode was produced by Rachel Carlson and edited by our showrunner, Rebecca Ramirez. Tyler Jones checked the facts and James Willits was the audio engineer. Beth Donovan is our senior director and Colin Campbell is our senior vice president of podcasting strategy. I'm Regina Barber. Thank you for listening to Shortwave from NPR. This message comes from NPR sponsor Merrill. Whatever your financial goals are, you want a straightforward path there. But the real world doesn't usually work that way. Merrill understands that.

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