Altman Says AGI Coming Faster Than We Think
16:29 Share

Today, on the AI daily brief, A, G, I might be her sooner than we think. And three hundred million people are now using chat P T. Every week before that. In the headlines, google CEO seems to acknowledge the A, I slowdown.

The A, I daily grief is a daily podcast in video about the most important news and discussions in A I to join the conversation for all of the discordant at our shown notes. Look back to the AI daily brief headlines edition, all the daily AI news you need in around five minutes. One of the things that we have been keeping an iron recently is whether the idea that there is a slowdown or a plata N, A, I capability actually has legs.

Well, in a recent interview, google CEO in arba chiz seems to give some credence to that. Talking about the company's A I research efforts, peche said the low hanging fruit is gone, the hill is steeped, the information continues. PCI said models would continue to get Better at completing a sequence of actions, which would help with automating software tasks.

A quote, quote, deeper breakthrough s would be needed for more dramatic improvements. This is certainly the theme that we've been hearing from lots of different folks. And of course, we've covered a number of the different approaches to scaling that organizations are now experimenting with.

I was given context earlier today, though, for why none of this particularly freaks me out or makes me think that anyone can really rest on their lawns. Then shift from every tweet this morning. Here's the most compelling benchmark of a eye progress, a task that took sixty minutes a year ago.

Now take sixty seconds. In january twenty twenty four, jeff re. Leti spent an hour coxing, ChatGPT and replay to build a live APP on my pod test.

Twelve months later, t. roan. I built the same APP with one prompting less than a minute. Now keep in mind, building an APP live with chagford and replay in an hour was a very impressive thing. IT still is a very impressive thing.

So the fact that a year later, less than a year later, really that same APP is getting built in a single prompt shows just how much we have to get out of the current state of the art. Staying on the google team for a minute. One of that company's big break out air products for this year is, of course, no book.

Allam, really interesting collaboration on that front. Spotify, in a book I M, or embedding a personalized AI podcast as part of spotify annual rap feature, wrapped a spotify summary of your personnel listening habits. And this year they included a podcast version of the recap, built, of course, with google snobbs, a very smart partnership for not only providing a cool alternative interface for rapped, which is an extremely popular feature, but also for exposing more people to know a speaking of noble gala m.

Some of the people involved with that feature are using the momentum to do something different. Three core members of the team have left the company to strike IT out on their own. Team leader rise Martin, along with designer Jason spelman and engineers Stephen hues, have resigned to found a new style th start up in a linton post.

Martin said that each of the three quote have always want to to be part of a start up, and we could not shake the feeling that there's a massive opportunity to build something transformative in the space at this stage. We just have an empty website that we are building that a ee. But Martin did hint at another applyed project stating, as the frontier models and their capabilities continue to grow, thoughtful products are required to make the benefits of this technology accessible, useful in obvious to everyday people.

So our team is going to be focused on building a user first, a product, he said. The company is in its earlier stages and has not announced any funding yet. Although you have to think, given how successful no book has been, that funding will not be an issue for this particular startup.

One more from google land, really dominating the headlines action today, google deep mind has unveiled their world model called jane too in an announcement thread team lead jack Parker holder said introducing gene two are most capable, large scale foundation world model, which can generate a diversity of consistent worlds playable for up to a minute. We believe jie two could unlock the next wave of capabilities for everybody agents. Basically, the tech promises to deliver consistent environments with simulated dynamics playable with a mouse and keyboard.

Mark holder also showcase the idea of a bodied agents or A I control avatars that can navigate the generated world. He said that the combination of technologies could be used as a, quote, path to unlimited environments for training and evaluating our body dagens. Now this is a huge theme that we're seeing more and more.

Earlier this week, we saw what faith leaves world labs has been working on with their own world model that can generate through the environment based on a single image. Deep minds model works in the same way, but seems to have focus much more on video game style features. In a blog post, they wrote gene two response intelligently, actions taken by pressing keys on the keyboards, identifying the character, moving IT correctly.

For example, our model can figure out that aragua should move a robot and not trees or clouds. The gene one model had been an extremely narrow experiment, focused only on generating 2d words。 Demand said.

This model was a significantly forward in generality. Adding gene two is a world model meeting. You can simulate virtual worlds, including the consequences of taking any action. He was trained on a large scale.

Video data set end, like other generated models, demonstrates various emerging capabilities at scale, such as object interactions, complex character animation, physics, and the ability to model and thus predict behavior of agents. I think for the long raids episode this weekend, we might get a little bit deeper into this world model. So keeping eye for that later the day meta is getting in on the nuclear game.

During amazon, microsoft and google, meta announced request for proposals to suit their nuclear ambitions. The company is seeking nuclear energy developers who can deploy between one and four gigawatts of capacity in the us. The new generation would be used to power medicine I data centers, but also had a strong Green energy angle meta route.

Supporting the development of clean energy must continue to be a priority as electric grids expand to accommodate a growing energy needs and matter, we believe nuclear energy will play a voter role in the transition to cleaner, more reliable and diversity electric grid. They are looking to establish the new supply by the early twenty thirties, the time mine is a little tight, with construction of the last new nuclear facility to be built, running seven years over. Then again, meta is prety flexible on the details.

The new power plant could be built anywhere rather than needing to hook up to existing data center. And with a stringer of regulation hick ops to laying big tech nuclear ambitions, this proposal could open up a new avenue as well as being a casting call for nuclear developers. The proposal could entice states to offer a regular ory fast track to attract new infrastructure.

Separately, meta announced plans to build a supercluster in the visions, a post on threads the company wrote today. In partnership with Luciana economic development, we announced our plans for the newest, largest data center in richland parish, lizana, which will play a vital role in accelerating our AI progress and support training future open source sale alarms. The states governor announce the project for the budget will be ten billion dollars, with construction to commence this month and continue through to twenty thirty.

But that is going to do for today's brief headlines edition. Next up, the main episode. Today's episode brought you by plum, want to use A I to automate your work, but don't know to get A I works by simply describing you.

No coding or apk required. I analyzed my zoo meetings and send me your insights in notion and watching IT come to life before your eyes. Whether your an Operations leader, mountain s for three point five assembly A I and many more, don't the technology hold you back?

Check out, use plum, that's plm with a bee for early access to the future of automation. Today's episode brought you by van tab. Whether you're starting or scaling your company security program, demonstrating top note security practices and establishing trust is more important than ever.

Penta automates compliance for I S O twenty seven O O one soc two gdpr and leading A I frameworks like I S O forty two thousand one and N I S T A I risk management framework, saving you time and money while helping you build customer trust. Plus, you can streamline security reviews by automating questionnaire and demonstrated your security posture with a customer facing trust center. All power by vent to A I over eight thousand global companies like LangChain lea AI in factory A I use vantage to demonstrate A I trust, improve security in real time, learn more invented 到 com flash N L W that's vented dot com slash N L W。

Today's episode is brought you by super intelligent. Every single business workflow and function is being remade and reimagine with artificial intelligence. There is a huge chAllenge, however, of going from the potential of AI to actually capturing that value.

And that gap is what super intelligence is dedicated to filling super intelligent, accelerate AI adoption and engagement to help teams actually use A I to increase productivity and drive business value. An interactive AI use case registry gives your company full visibility into how people are using artificial intelligence right now. Pare that with capabilities, building content in the form of tutorials, learning paths and a use case library.

And super intelligence helps people inside your company show how they're getting value out of ai while providing resources for people to put that inspiration into action. The next three teams that sign up with one hundred or more seats are going to get free. Embedded consulting.

That's a process by which our super intelligence team sits with your organization. S the specific use cases that matter most to you and helps actually ensure support for adoption of those use cases to drive real value. Go to be super diary I to learn more about this A I enable ment network and now back to the show.

Welcome back to the a daily brief. Well, I fear that we may be having quite a bit of open a eyes talk coming up yesterday. Sam tweed, starting tomorrow, we are doing twelve days of OpenAI.

Each weekday, we will have a live stream with a launcher demos, some big ones and some stocking stuffer. We've got some great stuff to share. Hope you enjoy merry Christmas. I come back in a minute to what people think might be coming from that.

But where I actually want to start is with a really interesting conversation between sam altman and Andrea saran at the york times deal book sum yesterday, there were a bunch of really fascinating part of the conversation, including some new numbers for ChatGPT revealed as well as maybe the most notable part, which is how old man thinks about the coming of ai. The tie. D.

R, is that altman thinks that A G. I is coming a lot faster than we think, but maybe less impactful than we think. He said, my guesses, we will hit A G, I, suter than most people in the world think.

And IT matters much less. A G. I can get built. The world mostly goes on, and mostly the same way the economy goes faster. But then there is a long continuation from what we call A G. I to what we call the intelligence.

Last month, omen said he believes this company will achieve A G I next year, and these comments suggest he thinks open a eyes still on course. The big question though is how exactly does OpenAI and define a an early version of the company? Charter said agi would be able to, quote, automate the great majority of intellectual labor r.

Now that seems that the definition is a little fuller and somewhat less. One of the reasons this matters is that open eye can end their deal with microsoft once their board declares that agi has been achieved. The verge recently reported that the goal seems to be to combine the forthcoming ori in or GPT five model with the reasoning model to create a more powerful model that can be labeled A G I.

Adding more credence s to the idea that opens definition of A G. I is now more modest, he added. I expect the economic disruption to take a little longer than people think because there's a lot of a nursia in society.

So in the first couple of years, maybe not that much changes and then maybe a lot changes in the economy IT. Maybe that the civilization changing A I, which can end the need for human work, is what albin has been referring to now as super intelligence. Alan wrote back in september that super intelligence could be achieved within a few thousand days are much less certain time line.

And notably, while album was optimistic that they are close, he did not give the impression that OpenAI has agi waiting in the wings, almost ready to deploy. He said there's a ton of hard work, a ton of research in engineering still to do, but I think it's possible. The other big topic from the interview was the prospect of political retribution from you on musk.

So far, musk has been fighting OpenAI in the courts, but there's a growing concern that he will uses newly found political influence to stifle albans plans. Discussing the prospect that must could send the force of the government against OpenAI, alban said, I believe pretty strongly that elon will do the right thing and that I would be profoundly on american to use political power to the degree that elon would hear competitors and advantages own businesses. I don't think people will tolerate that, and I don't think elan would do IT oman also remarked that he was, quote, tremendously sad about the simmering tension between the pair of one time co founders commenting, I grew up with the elon is like a mega hero.

I thought what elon was doing was absolutely incredible for the world. At a time when most of the world was not thinking very ambitiously, he pushed a lot of people, me included, to think much more ambitiously. And I have different feelings about them now, but i'm glad he exists reflecting on what is driving in on to go after OpenAI.

In this way, all man seems to think it's purely about business rivalry. He really cares about being the guy. He's a competitor, and we're doing well.

There was also a lanky discussion about the conversion of open eye into a four profit company. Alan confirmed that the decision was made in part because must caught off funding but didn't elaborate on the events that LED to the situation. He denied reports that open a ee had sought to block investors from also investing arrival companies.

All man also discuss his lack of equity in the company. Is dating. I wish I had taken some, given how big all of this is in almost passed without notice that ChatGPT usage has exploded.

Alen claimed that the platform now see three hundred million weekly active users. Basically, the equivalent of a major portion of the entire united states is using chat B. T.

Every week. They're sending a billion messages daily, and one point three million developers in the U. S. Alone are building on the platform in the context of the abNormally fast scaling, altima noted that the company requires far more computer are projected.

And on the rumors that the relationship with microsoft to become frosty, he admitted to some tension, but said that the two companies were still pretty aligned their incentives and are not in the midst of disentangling. One other interesting story around OpenAI that isn't about their shipments, which is where will end. This episode company assigned a partnership with Andrew industries to build anti drone defense systems.

This open the eyes first time working with the commercial weapons manufacturer, and comes a month after they first signal their new fund willingness to work on military tech. The company still prohibits use of its technology on offensive weapons, but has become increasingly comfortable contracting with the defense department on cyber security and administration of work. The current crop silicon valley startups is under ably more will interview tech as an integral part of national defence and something they should be taking an active role in last month.

Then prospects in a deal with valentina to provide their models for classified document analysis and anti drone systems are designed to track on mind aircraft and then shot them down music, electronic gaming, response drones or other means, general said. The open the eyes tech could improve accuracy and reduce the time to detection and response, putting fewer people in harm's way. Pretty interesting one that I think says a lot about the shifting mood of silicon valley. Lastly, let's talk about twelve days of an announcement tweet promise, twelve daily live streams and a bunch of new things, big and small. The verge reported that the stocking stuffer will include an assertion of new features, products and demos, and sources say that the big reveals will be a new reasoning model, and the long waited release of the text to video model sow up IT seems that some shipments cheer will also be brought to the company's existing products.

A, I news aggregator B2Bar fou nd cod e, enabling a new Christmas edition voice for chat B T complete with a snowflake symbol activate voice mode to boris referring to IT a cena GPT so perhaps to be able to chat with open an eyes version of joo, said, nick, for what it's worth, this is something that I have already done with my kids asking one of ChatGPT s existing voices to imitate santa, to announce as we turned on our holiday lights. Overall, the team at open the eyes seems to be very excited about this chip product officer, Kevin wheel, to eat. This is gona be wild and crazy, and a lot of fun shipment is coming.

Investor, not coastal road, excited for open the eyes. Twelve days of shipments, the air world will again feel different by the new year. We, of course, got a bunch predictions.

Data scientists ago wrote day one launch of sora. Day two introduction of a center inspired voice for ChatGPT. Take three enhancement of chat, B, T, S, advanced ice mode with vision.

And then anyone aren't make a venture predictions as well. One small one which would be big, would be a new delhi model to the except that there is any scepticism. It's that some think that if the announcements aren't really big, this is all going to feel like a bit of a wet blanket.

Some old gay rights. I think i'm speaking for most AI nerd's when I say if open eye doesn't release GPT four point five or demo GPT this twelve, the event will be a huge waste of time and could really screw open an eyes. Public perception.

We already know that sora a one Price cut s in A V M are coming because you promised us months ago, give us a Christmas surprise or pack your stuff if you make all this hype and don't deliver. I think as an investor, I would rather bet my chips on cod gemini g tips. And for my part, I do not think we're going to see GPT four point five or GPT five.

Oman has been pretty clear that, that is not coming this year. However, I think a lot of people will be pretty excited if sora actually comes to bear. And as for the rest of IT, well, we will just have to wait and see for now though, that is going to do IT for a days AI daily brief until next time peace.