AI developed by Frontier Labs is expected to surpass human intelligence in most scientific and engineering fields, enabling it to perform complex tasks like designing weapons or curing diseases in months or years. This capability will give nations with advanced AI systems a significant strategic advantage, making AI the most powerful technology in history.
The U.S. can enforce export controls on high-end chips, ensure data centers in partner countries adhere to security standards, and keep critical AI infrastructure within the U.S. and its allies. Additionally, improving energy infrastructure and reducing regulatory burdens can accelerate AI data center construction.
Export controls have been effective, as evidenced by the CEO of a leading Chinese AI firm citing the embargo on high-end chips as a major obstacle. However, China is attempting to circumvent these controls by using shell companies to access advanced chips in other countries.
If China surpasses the U.S. in AI, it could gain economic and military dominance, undermining American preeminence. This would also allow totalitarian governments to set the norms for AI use, potentially threatening democratic oversight and the rule of law.
DeepSeek Phi 3, a high-quality AI model from China, was trained at a low cost without relying on the latest semiconductor chips. This demonstrates China's ability to innovate around U.S. export restrictions, potentially enabling other nations to develop advanced AI systems more affordably.
While the restrictions have slowed China's access to high-end chips, they have also spurred innovation, such as the development of DeepSeek Phi 3, which was trained using cheaper methods. This could lead to broader global access to advanced AI systems, complicating U.S. efforts to maintain its technological lead.
Tracking AI hardware exports ensures that countries using U.S.-designed chips adhere to security standards and do not assist China's AI efforts. This helps maintain U.S. control over critical AI technologies and prevents circumvention of export controls.
U.S. chips, such as those made by NVIDIA, are significantly more advanced than China's best AI chips, like the Huawei Ascend series. China also lacks the production capacity to meet domestic demand, let alone export chips at scale, giving the U.S. a substantial technological edge.