234. The War in Ukraine in 2024
Battleground
Deep Dive
Why did the Ukrainian summer offensive in 2023 fail to achieve a breakthrough?
The offensive failed because Russia was too well dug in, with sophisticated defenses including huge minefields and tank traps, and the Ukrainian forces lacked the necessary weight to punch through. Additionally, the delay in launching the offensive until the summer allowed Russia to build these defenses.
What was the significance of the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024?
The capture of Avdiivka was significant as it resulted in the reported deaths of 16,000 Russian soldiers and marked a shift in the conflict, though it did not lead to a wider breakthrough. It also demonstrated the high casualty rates and the Russian army's ability to sustain heavy losses.
Why did the flow of arms to Ukraine from the United States face a significant delay in early 2024?
The flow of arms was delayed due to Republicans in the Senate blocking a bill that would provide emergency spending to support Ukraine. This political conflict dragged on until the end of April, causing the Ukrainians to suffer, including having to ration artillery rounds.
What was the impact of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk in August 2024?
The Kursk incursion was a strategic move to divert Russian troops from the Donetsk area. While it initially succeeded in capturing the town of Sudzha and creating a buffer zone, it did not achieve the primary objective of shifting Russian forces from the intense combat areas in Donetsk.
Why is the situation in the Donbass region deteriorating for Ukraine in late 2024?
The situation is deteriorating due to the heavy losses and the Russians' ability to continue grinding on despite high casualties. The pattern has been that Ukraine holds on as long as it can, then falls back to another defense line, and the process repeats.
Why is the war becoming less popular among ordinary Ukrainians?
The war is becoming less popular due to the high casualty rates, sagging spirits among frontline soldiers, and difficulties in getting people back into battle. The percentage of people willing to fight until they recover all their ground is falling, and support for a negotiated peace is increasing.
What challenges is Putin facing domestically and internationally in 2024?
Domestically, Putin faces economic challenges, high inflation, and a lack of opposition. Internationally, he has lost key allies in Syria and Iran, and his pretensions to global power have been undermined. Despite these challenges, he maintains an iron grip on power.
How has the Biden administration's support for Ukraine been criticized?
The Biden administration has been criticized for being too cautious and slow in providing support, including restrictions on the use of long-range missiles and delays in authorizing main battle tanks and F-16 fighters. This has been seen as caving to Putin's nuclear saber-rattling.
What is Zelensky's strategy for negotiations with Trump in 2025?
Zelensky's strategy is to go along with Trump's peace initiative, even if it means freezing the conflict and losing territory, in the hope that Putin will overplay his hand. This could lead to a better deal or a renewed American backing for Ukraine.
What is Putin's position on a potential peace deal with Ukraine in 2025?
Putin is in a difficult position as he has staked his survival on achieving a victory in Ukraine. Freezing the lines and relaxing sanctions may not be enough for him, and he may push for more maximalist aims, which could complicate negotiations.
- Ukrainian summer offensive failed due to strong Russian defenses.
- Capture of Avdiivka by Russia.
- Blockage of US aid to Ukraine.
- Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
Shownotes Transcript