264. The Aid Cut and the Letter: Ukraine's Response to US Pressure
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Hello and welcome to the Battleground podcast with me, Saul David and Patrick Bishop. With events moving at a bewildering pace, the latest from the political front is that the Cold War between erstwhile allies Ukraine and the U.S.,

seems to be thawing a little. Last night, just 24 hours after US President Donald Trump had ordered the suspension of all military aid to Ukraine, he told a joint session of Congress that he had received a letter from Volodymyr Zelensky in which the Ukrainian signaled he was ready to sign a rare earth minerals deal. Yeah, well, we'll be discussing all this and what it might mean for Ukraine with our regular contributor,

the American-Ukrainian journalist Asghar Krushelnitsky in a moment. But first, it's safe to say it was an extraordinary piece of political theatre, wasn't it, Saul, as Trump read out extracts from Zelensky's letter to Congress. Now, I'll give you some of the highlights in a moment, but this is dizzying, isn't it? It's like seesaw rocks back and forth. You never know where you are. It was all doom and gloom.

24 hours ago, 36 hours ago. Now there's a chink of light again on the horizon. Your optimism, your fabled optimism has been rewarded. Anyway, so here are some of the things that Trump said. Ukraine's ready to come to negotiate. He'll take it as soon as possible to bring...

Peace that lasts. This is what he's reading out from Zelensky. My team and I are ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts. We really do value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence regarding the agreement on Minsk.

minerals and security. Ukraine is ready to sign it at any time that is convenient for you. So this is pretty much everything that Trump could have asked for, except, of course, an outright abject apology. So Trump went on to say, I appreciate that he sent this letter, just got it a little while ago. Simultaneously, we've had serious problems

discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn't that be beautiful? It's time to stop this madness. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting, isn't it, Patrick? What we need to focus on is as much what wasn't said as what was actually said. I mean, there was no mention of the restoration of military aid to Ukraine in Trump's address to Congress.

But I think we can take that as a given once the mineral deal is signed. I mean, after all, the stopping of aid was actually always said to be temporary because Zelensky was showing no indication that he was interested in a peace deal. Of course, he is, and he's reiterated the fact that he is. But even if we do get to a point where the deal is signed, the mineral deal, that is, they're

got the issue of dealing with Russia, which is where, in my view, the problems are going to begin. But Zelensky, apparently advised by British PM Zakir Starmer, who he'd spoken to earlier in the day, has at least got himself thus far back into Trump's good books by saying he's happy to sign the mineral deal and return to the negotiating table. And in my view, this puts the ball back in the Russian court. Some people will say,

Zelensky has seen sense and bent the knee. I don't really see it like that. The letter is emollient, of course, it has to be. He flatters Trump as a strong leader and thanks the American for what he's done so far to safeguard Ukraine's independence. But there's no personal apology, as you pointed out, Patrick. And what he is agreeing to, in my view, is hardly different from his position on Friday when he was kicked out of the White House. What's your take on all of this, Patrick?

Well, I think we'd all agree that Zelensky really had little choice but to go back cap in hand. How much further this takes us on is questionable because, as you say, it all comes back to Russia. How is Russia going to react to all this? Well, it's reacted sort of positively, saying, yes, this is good that Zelensky's

ready to talk peace again, but nothing at all, not a centimeter of movement from their absolutist positions. Repeated again, I see this morning by Putin's sort of chief attack dog, really, when it comes to addressing the West, that's Dmitry Medvedev, who's talking about we're going to continue the war with the intention of inflicting the maximum damage

damage on Ukraine and of course those outstanding demands for the provinces that it lays claim to. No sign of movement on that. There's no sign of any kind of concessions there. So

How does Trump react to all this? I mean, we don't hear anything at all, really, from him on the Russian position. But as you say, Saul, that will have to change, one would have thought. Yeah, we got an early warning of what Zelensky was going to say in his letter to Trump in a statement he put out on social media, and it said a lot of the same things.

I think the closest he came to an apology actually in this message was it's time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructed. But that's not really the same thing as an apology, is it? There was a suggestion by some commentators, actually, Patrick, that the mineral deal would be signed before Trump's address to Congress last night. But that was wishful thinking. I mean, it goes without saying with the two leaders on separate conversations.

continents, that was never likely to happen. But overall, some positive signs that the relationship between the U.S.,

can be or is being repaired, but still a long way to go. Yeah, I don't think it, to be honest, that it's going to get very much better than this. I mean, the reading I would put on all this is that Ukraine can expect nothing more than a resumption of the arms supplies, just really giving them what they've already, the US has already signed up to hand over. And

and that Trump has no intention at all of putting any real pressure on the Russians. He would have done so by now, surely, if that was his intention. I think that scenario that people are painting, that he really does think that somehow Russia

by accommodating, appeasing Russia. He's somehow going to put a bit of daylight between them and the Chinese, deal with, his real intention is to get this over with as quickly as possible, claim that he's delivered a fantastic diplomatic coup, put in his claim for the Nobel Peace Prize and then pivot to China, which has been the intention all along. All I can say is that if he's applying the same sort of diplomatic approach to China that he is to do

Through Russia, he's not going to get very far with that one. So, yeah, I mean, I think one of the mistakes we make is trying to read into Trump's actions and statements, some pattern, divine, some strategy there, which, you know, as time goes on, I'm beginning to wonder whether there is one at all, or whether it's just all disruption and no substance.

Yeah, we'll come on to China in a second, actually, because there's been some interesting response from China this morning, not to the peace negotiations in relation to Russia and Ukraine, but of course, the fact that along with tariffs being slapped on Mexico and Canada,

The US has done the same thing with China, and they've responded very robustly to that. And I'll mention that in just a second. But before we leave the issue of this so-called semi-reprochement between Zelensky and Trump, let's just talk a little bit, Patrick, about the idea of a ceasefire, because Zelensky was a little bit more forthcoming on this. The French suggested earlier this week a month-long truce to begin with. Not everyone's

that convinced about that. But Zelensky echoed something similar in his statement on X when he said that the first step could be, and I quote, the release of prisoners and truce in the sky, which means, as he went on to explain, a ban on missiles, long range drones, bombs on energy and other infrastructure and truce in the sea immediately if Russia will do the same. But that, as I said a minute ago, Patrick, is the big question.

Trump seems to think Putin is on board with all of this. But as you've already pointed out with Medvedev's statement, he clearly is not. And if that is the case, that is that the Russians are going to dig in their toes, we might be back. And this is again with my optimist hat on, Patrick, to a best case scenario where he gets fed up with the Russians. I think what's

Zelensky has probably been advised to do by our prime minister and others is, look, just get back into Trump's good books and let's see if the Russians can be the bad guys in all of this. And if they are and military aid is resumed, Trump may actually turn on Russia and begin to ramp up pressure, which is what was threatened if they didn't play along with this a few months ago. Yes, that's hopelessly optimistic. We'll see how all of this pans out.

Well, yeah, I mean, we'll probably find out sooner than rather later, because one thing you do get from all this is that there's a great sense of urgency on the American side, almost irregardless of anything else. They want to get this deal done.

done and i think we were saying this the other day and i think it holds true if it isn't done in short order then uh the next step will be for trump just to move away and blame it all on zelensky um but we are seeing some positives out of this you know i don't want to be totally pessimistic and that of course is the way that uh europe is coming to its senses about its security situation and about what it has to do to to make things better and that of course is spend spend spend so

As you know, von der Leyen has just unveiled plans for an 800 billion euro boost to defense. But you know, that is serious money. And of course, on one hand, it signals to Trump that we are reliable partners. That's if they actually want us.

but also that Europe is serious about looking after its own security. And she said the stakes could not be higher and the time for action is now. Well, actually, the time for action was about 10 years ago. But anyway, be that as it may, if it can't be then, then the next best time is today. So this is, of course, the European Commission president,

And she wrote to all EU leaders, a new era is upon us. Europe faces a clear and present danger on the scale that none of us have seen in our adult lifetime before.

Some of our fundamental assumptions are being undermined to their very core. The pace of change is disconcerting and increasingly alarming. Well, this is the language that we're hearing from everyone, isn't it? So from our Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, from the next German Chancellor-in-waiting, if you want to put it like that, Friedrich Merz. And I hear that...

President Macron will be addressing the nation tonight. He's billed it in a kind of pre-statement as being a very important utterance he's going to make. So I think that will probably be something along the same lines. This is not just rhetoric. People are actually putting their hands in their pockets. Budgets are being, in Britain in particular, huge changes to the budget to prioritise defence, something that would have been unthinkable a couple of months before. It shows a great...

towards statesmanship, I think, from our Prime Minister because this actually flies in the face of everything that the incoming government said it was going to do when it came to power last summer. So, yeah, great changes,

in the air. And moving back to China for just a second, Patrick, I mentioned those tariffs that have just been slapped on Chinese imports into America 20% across the board. And China has responded incredibly robustly. It said it's ready for war with America as it raises its own defense spending and imposes retaliatory tariffs. And in a direct threat to Donald Trump, China's rep

representatives in America said, if war is what the US wants, it is be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other type of war, we're ready to fight to the end. They responded by various targeted tariffs between 10 and 50% on certain imports from March the 10th. In combative statements online, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said,

And the U.S. embassy warned Washington that intimidation does not scare us. And the fiery language continues. So, you know, this is a real ramping up of tensions. And it's interesting to see what this will do to Trump, of course, because to a certain extent, the Chinese are calling his bluff, aren't they? They are not likely to be bullied in the same way that Canada and Mexico seem to have been over all of this, although we're going to see how they're

they respond to the tariffs which have been imposed. And it may be that it brings, again, the optimist hat on, it brings Trump to his senses to a certain extent. You know, he is going to need some friends, frankly, and his current friends should be NATO, although we have to call into question his determination actually to continue with that sort of, you know, North Atlantic defensive apparatus.

Yeah. I mean, I think his approach was summed up pretty well by Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, who said this whole terror thing is just dumb. Now, this is Trudeau just stating what seems to be the truth of the matter, doesn't it? I mean, again, very hard to discern truth.

what the underlying strategy in all this is. One day the tariffs are on, next day they're off. The following day they're back on again. What is actually behind all this? What is he actually trying to achieve? Does he know himself? This is a question I think a lot of people will be asking. Okay, well, going back to events in Ukraine, I think both of us feel a little bit, don't we, Patrick? You maybe a little bit less than me that...

that it's heartening news for Ukraine and Europe over the last 24 hours. And in my view, it goes without saying that both needed it. But let's hear what the response has been in Ukraine from our old friend and colleague, Asgol Kruzelnitsky, who is currently in country. And it'll be fascinating to hear his take on what privately and publicly they're saying over there.

Asgol, you're currently in Western Ukraine. You've been around, as always, on your travels along the front lines and in the capital. Tell us what you're hearing of the mood, of the reactions to soldiers, civilians, and the media to what's been going on in Washington. Well, it's been, as you can imagine, something of a roller coaster of emotions and sensations for Ukrainians. But it's not a case of

peaks being fine and good on this roller coaster ride with bad sloths. I mean, it's varied from just appalling and atrocious lies, bewildering people, to the suspension of military aid for Ukraine that Trump announced, which some people described as worse than their worst nightmares.

What's been distinct or has been something that's stood out for me is that whilst people are condemning Trump and blaming Trump for what they see as a weakening and caving in more or less to the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, they're trying to distinguish between Trump

and the American people. They're bewildered. They can't understand why Trump has done this. It's been going on now for about three weeks. It started with hostility, insults, calling the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a dictator, saying that he should resign, there should be elections, even though Trump

and his coterie know very well that elections during martial law in Ukraine, because of the war, are forbidden. And Elon Musk, within the last few days, Trump's puppeteer, big helper, henchman, even suggested that there should be a country willing to give Zelensky an amnesty and take him, the implication being that he thinks that Zelensky is superior

some sort of war criminal and needs to be removed. And Musk said so that democracy can return to Ukraine. So Ukrainians are bewildered because a lot of this just doesn't make sense to them. First of all, most of them still support Zelensky. And over these last few weeks, his popularity ratings have actually increased by something like 13 or 14 percent to something like 65, 67 percent.

And people don't think that democracy is lacking here. They all understand the practical difficulties of organizing some sort of elections that would give...

a modicum of fairness or a chance for people, Ukrainians, millions of them, who remain in Russian-occupied territory to vote in elections, millions of Ukrainians living out of the country, millions of others displaced from their hometowns or cities. So people have been puzzled

about why Trump and America, the country that they've long considered since Ukrainian independence in 1991, as one of their closest friends around the world. So there's been a sense of

betrayal amongst some people, and depression. But I've spoken to soldiers at the front lines or near the front lines, and nobody is saying, well, that's it, we've got to surrender. They said, we've got to fight on because everybody knows what will happen if Russia wins. And in contrast to the dismay felt by Trump's behavior, Ukrainians, whether they're military or civilians,

The Ukrainian media have all taken heart from the support of European countries. As always, there's particular praise for Britain, which is regarded with a special fondness. That's really heartening to hear, Askel, that Britain is still held in special regard.

Do you think there's a feeling within Ukraine generally, both the soldiers at the front and civilians too, that Europe can fill the gap if the worst comes to the worst? I mean, we've reported today, of course, the slightly more encouraging news that Zelensky may be returning to Washington at some point in the near future to sign the mineral deal. And we'll see how far that gets us down the track of peace. But if worse did come to worse and it was just Europe backing Ukraine, do people believe that would be enough?

Actually, lots of Ukrainians, military and others, followed very carefully Europe's, the other European countries and Britain's statements. And they've done their homework. And most people, not just military experts or members of the military, they know that as things stand, European supporters, including Britain,

can't fill all the gaps that would be left by a permanent suspension of US aid.

But they believe, and they've, again, taken heart from statements by many European leaders and EU leaders, that they're going to increase their own budgets for defense, and they're going to transfer some of their reserves, some of the things that Ukraine needs, missiles, anti-aircraft defenses, from their own stockpiles.

but are making plans for longer term manufacture of these things within Europe. But the problem really is it's not so much the quantity, it's the quality, isn't it, Erskine? So how dangerous would it be for Ukraine were the supplies of, for example, Patriot,

missile batteries to dry up? Well, I talked yesterday to somebody that I've mentioned on this podcast before. He's a colonel with close connections to Ukrainian general staff, and he's got special responsibilities actually for arms procurement for Ukraine. He travels around the world and he is an expert on what's

available. And he told me that if America ceases to provide Patriot missiles, there are alternatives available that some European countries with the Patriots, you mentioned Italy and one other country that makes something which is similar, it would need to be approved by those governments. But there are substitutes for most of the things that the Americans provide

But he did mention another possible sticking point is that in the past, America has forbidden, say, Britain and France to provide missiles to Ukraine that have American components within them. Now, if Trump gets even nastier, he could invoke that kind of

part of the agreement between America and every other country that America manufactures weapons with or provides components for. So that's a possible sticking point. One last thought from me, Asghold. We don't know where this is going to go in terms of the mineral deal. It looks like it might be signed.

in the not too distant future. But that's just one very small step along the road to peace. I mean, how optimistic are you that Russia is prepared to offer Ukraine the sort of terms that are acceptable?

Look, I think that I've said before on this podcast that for months I've been saying or writing that Ukraine should prepare for the worst case scenario and hope for something better. Even I was surprised by and shocked by Trump's suspension of all military aid. It's unclear from his address to the joint houses of Congress during his State of the Union speech.

on Tuesday evening, whether that is now going to resume, whether US weapons are going to resume. I think that Putin is watching closely and following this erratic policy changes by Trump and his coterie. So far, he must be gleeful. He'll be bound to thinking that it's working out his way.

I don't, I think, in common with most people who've tracked Putin's behavior since he came to power a quarter of a century ago in Moscow, that any agreement that he signs is not worth the paper it's written on. And he's lied to every major Western country. He spent weeks assuring people that there wouldn't be an invasion February 2022.

As I said, I spoke to people serving near frontline positions by telephone on Tuesday, just hours after the announcement of the suspension of American aid. A number of people mentioned that also American intelligence provided to

the Ukrainian military is very, very important. The colonel that I mentioned earlier said that they need this in their planning and the conduct of their operations. And he said it would be, it wouldn't be a complete disaster if it was removed permanently

but it would cause hurt. And I noticed in some British media reports that the Daily Mail reported that America had forbidden the UK and other countries in receipt of US intelligence gathered by satellite and other means has forbidden it, the UK and others from sharing that information.

intelligence with Ukraine. I haven't been able to confirm that that's the case, but this Colonel has made clear that it would be a considerable blow if that was removed. Another thing that kept cropping up was that Starlink, the communications via satellite

system owned by Elon Musk, there's been rumors that that could be cut off, that Ukraine would be denied access to it if Trump wanted to further increase pressure on Ukraine's President Zelensky to just bend the knee and fall in with his demands. I asked people both at the front lines and in CAVE

what the consequences of a permanent suspension of American military aid might be. People at the front didn't think that there would be an immediate weakening of their defenses that would allow an imminent breakthrough by the Russians. But they all knew and said that Ukraine's stockpiles of the Western providers, specifically American-provided ammunitions needed for

air defense needed for sophisticated missile systems. They all said that Ukraine had limited stocks of American-provided ammunition needed to sustain the ability to defend Ukraine, especially from aerial attacks by the Russians. The colonel that I spoke to believes that

for the next few months. Ukraine has got sufficient reserves, stockpiles of weapons to carry on at the present levels. But he says that the danger points may come within three to five months if there are no American supplies. But he emphasized that Ukraine's European allies, including the UK, dig deeper into their own reserves and

increase their own manufacturing ability of ammunition and weapons, then he was confident that these European allies, plus others such as Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, should be able to fill the gap and prevent a collapse in Ukrainian defenses.

And another thing that's cropped up in conversations was how important the Starlink space-based, satellite-based

communications system is and has been for Ukraine. Elon Musk allowed Ukraine to use this at the beginning of the full-blown invasion in February 2022, and it proved really lifesaver for Ukrainian forces whose communications had been jammed by the Russians. And the Starlink communications still provide

provides very important abilities for local commanders to communicate with their superiors further up the chain of command. And particularly, I spoke to a lieutenant who's in charge of a medical evacuation unit taking wounded soldiers right from the front lines under fire.

to medical facilities and hospitals further away from the front lines, where they have to now run an almost continuous gauntlet under Russian drone attack. And he said that he didn't know how he would be able to operate without Starlink. He said that they'd have to find some kind of way of operating without it if necessary. But he also said that

that it would make their jobs a lot more dangerous and a lot more difficult in every way. Okay, well, that was terrific stuff. We'll take a break now. Do join us in a moment for listeners' questions. Daredevil is born again on Disney+. My name is Matthew Murdoch. I'm a lawyer. Exactly what kind of a lawyer are you?

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Welcome back. Well, it's been a while since we heard from our cyber security expert, David Alexander, but he was moved by the recent news that the US Secretary of State for Defense, Pete Hegseth, had ordered the Pentagon to stop offensive cyber operations against Russia. This is all part of the charm offensive to bring Putin on board to give us a cyber briefing on what all this means. And

David writes, the orders were given before President Trump's very public spat with President Zelensky of Ukraine, so they are not a knee-jerk reaction. They are a premeditated decision which

appeared to be part of a charm offensive, as I put it, to bring Russia into peace talks. As a result, the U.S. has already suspended ongoing offensive cyber operations and planning for new ones. The question is, what does all this mean? And David goes on to say, off the record, U.S. defense officials are saying this is a major blow to operations. Like any offensive planning, the mission and preparing the resources takes time and requires intelligence of the highest level if it is to have any chance of success.

They, that is the defense officials, are reported as saying that the main concern is that the cessation of offensive actions makes the U.S. more vulnerable to potential cyber attacks from Moscow, which would seem logical to me, Patrick. And then David goes on to say that the order goes against all the evidence, both classified and open source, that Russia is a highly capable, well-resourced and active organization.

proponent. He goes on to say, I'm sure that the relevant senior US officials will be aghast and in despair at the decision, which must have come directly from the Oval Office of the White House.

These officials are unable to protest because Trump is widely known to fire those who disagree with him, only to replace them with loyal and often less capable yes people. He's already removed many of the most senior military officers in the U.S. Department of Defense for less than sound reasons. Well, that's a very interesting point, because we've already seen this culling that's gone at the very top of the U.S. military removal of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the head of the Navy,

And of course, you know, people who stay in place are doing so in order to try and at least put up a little bit of resistance that doesn't go far enough to get them fired, but prevents them being removed and someone who's just going to be a nodding noose.

dog being put in their place. So there'll be absolutely no pushback at all. And the good news from what David says is that he can't see any sign that there have been stop orders given to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which is obviously out with the Department of Defense. And that

body, leads the defensive cyber operations for the US. They continue their work. Yet, nevertheless, without the intelligence from the military, there's no question in David's mind that they will be less effective in their activities as a result of the stop order. And overall, he goes on to say, well, I'm sure that various agents in Europe will continue their act.

the sheer size of the U.S. operation and the assets at its disposal, including E-Lint satellites and aircraft, will have played a large part in building the cyber operations picture of Russia's intents and operations. Cyber operations, he concludes, just got harder for everyone else on the side of Ukraine. So this is an expert giving us an insight, Patrick, into the real world consequences of these kind of blithe decisions that are being attempted.

taken in the US at the moment by the Trump administration. Yeah, I mean, again, it was very underreported this, wasn't it? Simply because there's so much on the screen. There's a sort of blizzard

of chaos, pronouncements, things that have real import. So something like this, which, as I said before, would have been a major news item before Trump got in, or even in the first days of the Trump administration, is now just lost in all the churn. Yeah. And one other quick thing to add, again, from a contributor who's been on the program, is the consequences of the turning off

of military aid. Now, we said in the podcast, or I said in the podcast a couple of days ago, Patrick, that even so, Ukraine could still fight on because it had stockpiles that might last up to six months. Tom Petsch, the contributor in question, a former special forces operator, and well up on, you know, how all these systems work, said the real problem is targeting. It's not actually having the weapons, it's being able to use them in an effective

manner. And that obviously requires US assistance. So it's not just as simple as having the stockpiles. There's a real, you know, world threat to the Ukrainians' ability to use them effectively. So just to underline, that is a consequence for the cutting off of all American aid. Okay, well, on to questions. One here from John in Cambridge in the United Kingdom, in which he asks, is the US the new Wagner Group? Well, that's an interesting way of

Putting it in this decisive phase, it seems clear that the Trump administration does not foresee actual existential problems for the U.S. interests if they abandon support.

for Ukraine. In their eyes, it matters not who is morally right or whether the conflict freezes or ultimately results in Russia subjugating Ukraine and other nearby countries. Even worse, this nihilistic America First policy now seems to extort mineral resources from Ukraine whilst offering nothing they can't walk away from at a moment's notice in terms of a security guarantee.

Wagner group, eat your heart out. He says, well, I think there is something in that analogy. And thanks for pointing it out. I think we ought to discuss that a little bit. John's point does lead to the American explanation for why mineral exploitation, the involvement of American mining companies in Ukraine will somehow be a guarantee for

of security for Ukraine. Well, I don't buy that for a moment. It's being touted as a genius move by some of Trump's most sycophantic supporters. And that is saying something. I mean, to be a sort of outstanding sycophant in the current circumstances really takes some day. It's obviously nonsense, isn't it? I mean, first of all, where the mining operations are likely to take place is quite a long way from the border. The Russians aren't going to be stupid enough to actually

send missiles in the direction of any American workers, even if they were to do so by some mistake, they'll just say it was a false flag operation by the Ukrainians, etc., etc. So there's no remote possibility of this being some sort of a shield against Russian aggression for the Ukrainians.

So another example of how this is, you know, I think you're correct in saying a purely one-sided arrangement here with all the benefits going in America's direction and very little coming back to Ukraine. Yeah, and John goes on to make the point, much as it pains those of us who value freedom, democracy and the rule of law, we must acknowledge that this Trump administration simply does not care about non-Americans, whether they be in Gaza, Ukraine, or even, I think, a large number of their own citizens. And

I think that's a fair comment, Patrick. And it's one that we should point out more generally has been underlined by a number of messages from our listeners in America who have been frankly horrified by the events of the last couple of weeks. Now, that's obviously not all opinion in America. We know there are counter voices, but it is interesting because if there is going to be a turnaround in this foreign policy, it might start in a couple of years time with a midterm election.

If and when Trump loses control of the houses of Congress as a punishment for some of these, you know, frankly, extraordinary policies and very un-American policies. But we do have to wait a couple of years on that and we have to deal with the here and now. So moving on to the next question for Peter Day in the Dordogne in France.

And he says, now Trump has turned off the supply of American aid to Ukraine. Well, that might be turning back on soon. But anyway, let's carry on with the question. And seems more of a Russian asset than an honest broker. I think that's a fair comment. Do you think Zelensky should be talking to the Chinese as possible peace brokers? Well, no, frankly, I don't think that's an option, really. Although, of course, if things have got really desperate as far as Ukraine was concerned, who knows in which direction they would have looked.

I think it's clear he was going to look to Europe first, but China clearly is not to be trusted in a geopolitical sense. And what we've seen already, as I've already mentioned, is, you know, them very much pushing back against America's threats to their trade, their strategic position. So, no, China is not the solution in all of this, although we've said from the start they do have a certain amount of leverage over Russia, which the U.S., frankly, does not.

Yeah, I don't think you're going to endear yourself to President Trump either. Zelensky, I think, would really be out on his ear if he started making overtures to Beijing. I've got just a nice phrase that Dave from the New Forest in Britain says in his message to us. With the U.S. sending all the wrong signals to NATO, I wouldn't trust them to pack my parachute. Well, that's a very good way of putting it, don't you think? I think that's it, isn't it? I mean, no one's going to trust American diplomacy anymore.

Going forward, I mean, for how long? I saw someone say, you know, maybe it's a generation before we're back in a position where we actually go forward as partners. I mean, I think a lot of people are coming to the same conclusion that even if Trump

had disappeared in a puff of smoke today, Trumpism would not go with him. It's now a movement. It's now a cast of mind. It's now a, I won't dignify by saying it's a philosophy, but it's certainly a big political virus, actually, I would say.

and that's not going to go away anytime soon. Okay, moving on to the first of the messages from our American listeners, Lee Stevens in Bellingham, Washington. And he, of course, is referring to the meeting between Zelensky and Trump last week. All I can say, right, Lee, is I've never been more ashamed of my country. I will not

recount the litany of lies, insults and abusive tactics used, those will have been repeated ad nauseum by now. But the heart of his message is, I truly hope that Europe takes this as a last chance wake up call. While the US nuclear umbrella has shielded it from Russia for 80 years,

Europe has two nuclear powers of its own. It would not be too technically difficult for France and Great Britain to craft an effective nuclear strategy that would be enough to deter a Russian nuclear strike. And this is a really important point, isn't it, Patrick? Because if NATO is to break up and we create something similar, a kind of European treaty organisation,

then obviously we need some kind of nuclear deterrence. And we do have nuclear powers, as Lee points out. The issue for the British nuclear capability, as far as I can gather, is that the weapons, of course, are American. And that is a problem. France has its own nuclear capability that it controls entirely itself. And that

clearly in this kind of scenario is a much more effective weapon system. But already these discussions are being mooted both by the French and the British. So it'll be interesting to see where that goes. But I can see slight issues with the British nuclear deterrence because it is so closely aligned with the U.S.

Yeah, I think the French are going to play a huge part in the plans to reorder NATO, or as you say, more likely a European treaty organization or something.

that rebalances the way things are arranged now. So, yeah. But again, you know, there's so much uncertainty looking into the future. Macron's not going to be around for more than another couple of years. And then who knows who's going to replace him? Perhaps Marine Le Pen. On that point, actually, very interesting that she's come out very tough and hard and against the way that Zelensky's been treated by Washington and

Also interesting that the technical head of the movement, of the Penn's National Rally movement, refused to address the American Conservative Association last week when it was gathering lots of international far-right or hard-right parties were there.

And Jordan Bardella refused to go on in protest at Steve Bannon's disgusting Hitler salute that he gave to the assembly. So even what is regarded as previously been pretty sympathetic to Trump,

like the National Rally, have been sickened by what they're seeing. Okay, moving on to Anura Samara in Canberra, Australia. And again, she's, of course, addressing the apparent break, the break between Europe and the US.

And her suggestion is if every European country provided on average a battalion to serve on the borders of Russia, there would be several divisions worth of troops ready to respond to any threat. By average, I mean that the larger nations would supply more to offset the lesser capabilities of the smaller nations. Yes, I've heard the comments that European forces need U.S. involvement to provide intelligence, air defense and logistical capabilities. I have no military experience. However, I have 25 years experience

As a volunteer firefighter and then qualified as the most senior firefighter on the ground, divisional commander, it's completely normal for us to draw together diverse resources with zero preparation and in only a few hours to tackle major campaign fires. We don't wait for the perfect combinations of capabilities, but instead rapidly scale up

as more resources become available and the situation evolves. If an unpaid volunteer can do that, why can't trained professionals take a similar approach and mount a response with the resources they have, not the resources they would like? I mean, it's a reasonable suggestion, isn't it, Patrick? I mean, in the end, the whole point of all of these discussions is to deter, not actually to fight and actually to place, you know,

a sizable number of troops in a position that it clearly, you know, is defensive in relation to Russia, is not the worst idea in the world, is it? No, not at all. I mean, you fight wars or you defend yourself with what you have to hand. And that is the starting point.

And I think, you know, making grandiose plans for the future is all very well, but you've got to start with the here and now. Interestingly, that's an Australian listener. And we've got quite a lot of reaction actually from all around the world, all very heartening, all saying pretty much,

The same thing, we've got another one here from Gareth, who's another Aussie, saying, I'm a big fan of Battleground. I want to say a big thank you for not giving in to war fatigue and continuing to cover the atrocities and injustice carried out on the people of Ukraine. Well, thank you for saying that, Gareth. I think we both feel a duty, don't we, and James, our producer, to carry on with the podcast and issuing special episodes as and when, because...

We feel a relationship with you, our listeners, and the need to kind of keep you updated. Not simply our own thoughts, but trying to get as much good information as we can to help you.

clarify the picture, something that we are very much in need of at the moment. It's an interesting one here from Tony, and this is about recruitment to the armed forces. So if we're going to move ahead with rearming, obviously we need to bolster the actual number of boots we can put on the ground, wherever it is in Europe and or Ukraine. And Tony says, being a Royal Navy veteran of 22 years, the solution to getting people to join the armed force is very simple, pay and conditions.

For far too many years, soldiers, sailors and airmen have been paid far below civilians, but expected to do much more, including risk their lives. In today's hostile world, the UK can expect these young people to put their necks on the line for not much more money than if they worked at Tesco's. And it's a very fair point, isn't it, Patrick?

that actually pay and conditions, housing and everything else need to be improved for the military. All of this, of course, can potentially come out of an increased defence budget. We're definitely going to 2.5% of GDP by 2027. There's now a broader intention to get that up to 3%. And we're beginning to see this all over Europe, aren't we? Yeah, France have announced pretty much the same thing. I think they're getting to 3% by

2030, which is going very fast indeed. And on that point that Tony makes about pay and conditions, absolutely right. When you look at the recruiting problems Britain is having, that's the only thing I know about in any detail. The first problem that you face is very poor housing, very low pay, and general demoralization as a result. All that has to change. And one way of doing it, actually, Putin has helped, I think, slightly, and indeed Trump,

by making people aware that defense is a real necessity and that you can actually be doing something that's both admirable and we hope going forward rewarding and having a sort of proper career. Talking to a Polish friend of mine this morning about the way that military is regarded in Poland, it's regarded as a very attractive option for young people, a life opportunity.

long or at least long-term career with a proper structure to have proper rewards and very high status. Okay, I mentioned our American listeners. A couple here, one from Maureen, the other from John. Maureen writes, please know that there are many American citizens who are appalled and embarrassed by the behaviour of our leaders in the White House. I like to, she writes, give Trump the benefit of the doubt in case there's really a plan there. There isn't, she writes. That will be best for the US in the long term. However, I still expect that

the president of the United States, to behave like a statesman and not like a thug. And John writes something similar. It was a new low in President Trump's already chaotic second term of office. I can understand why Europeans do not feel they can rely on the United States as an ally, given that the American people have elected

to Trump, but I hope the damage can be repaired one day. Thank you for your continued work. I appreciate your weekly updates, particularly as coverage of the war has diminished in the US. And it's kind of hard to believe that, isn't it, Patrick, given that, you know, it seems to be front page news, at least as far as the political and diplomatic side of the war is concerned. But it is important to keep abreast of what's going on on the

on the front lines. It's true. And as I think we mentioned in the last podcast, Ukraine's been recently showing green shoots of actually recovering, nibbling away, it's true, but recovering a little bit of lost ground, particularly around Pokrovsk and Turetsk, and also signs that the new Young Ground Forces Commander, who's just 42 years old, whose name escapes me for a second, is actually making a difference in modernising the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Yeah, I think that's Michailo Drapati, who's getting some press. You know, he's part of this

process we saw ourselves didn't we in kharkiv with the uh cartier brigade you know young people who wouldn't have been in the military otherwise untainted by the old saviour we're doing things bringing modern technology but also modern man management man and woman management methods to the military you know much more humane system much more inclusive and much more

sort of hierarchical. So, yeah, these changes are working through. That's one of the great tragedies of where we are now, isn't it, Saul, that we were in a situation where, militarily speaking, things weren't going terrifically well for Ukraine, but the bigger picture was that Russia certainly was not in a commanding position, and all the predictions were that if the pressure was maintained, that

that there would be political consequences for Putin. We'll never know the outcome of that now, but it seems to me that history may well judge that historic moment to actually bring down Putin and perhaps start a process where Russia becomes a proper member of the world community and the Russian people themselves get a break and might have been in the offing.

Yeah, I mentioned our American listeners. One more I should have added. This is from Michael. He's a 32-year-old farmer from Minnesota. And since day one, he's been a strong supporter of Ukraine's fight for sovereignty. And he writes, he's not too different from the start of our country. I'm frankly embarrassed by our government. We once stood for freedom and liberty. Now our own government is seemingly working hard to crumble away the

foundations of our own government. Not trying to go into a rant, he continues, by any means, and usually not one to be overly vocal about my opinions, but I felt the need to write this email for weeks now. Our best hope for our Ukrainian allies and ourselves is that we can flip the Congress in two years, that's in the midterm elections, if our democracy isn't in total shambles by then.

In summary, Ukraine still has much support here. We too are worried about global and national events happening in these unprecedented times. So it's very heartening, I think, to read a lot of these messages, Patrick, isn't it? It is indeed. And also very good information and observations coming in. One here from Bruce Campbell, an economic geologist retired. He makes two points. One is about something again, which has been lost in all the chaos, which is the

This executive order signed by Trump back in February the 10th, which stopped the Department of Justice prosecuting people under the Federal Corrupt Practices Act of 1977. Now, this is a complicated story, but basically this act allowed U.S. corporations to

tell government leaders and officials abroad that they wouldn't pay bribes because it was prohibited under the existing U.S. law. So Trump has basically thrown that out the window. In shorthand, he's basically saying, yeah, go ahead, bribe anyone you like. That's the way business is done in the world. We're basically putting a sort of handcuffs on our own people.

enterprises because they can't operate the same way that the rest of the world does so it's basically sanctioning or allowing corruption uh now this is a terrible thing isn't it i mean the u.s led the world in battling corruption and you know any proper business uh any lawful legal well attention business would welcomes the american strong stance on this because it means they don't have to

pay bribes themselves. But that's just gone now. He also makes a point, which I won't go into in too much detail, because it's really, it's reiterating what we've heard before about this mineral deal. He writes, it's,

problematic at many levels it conflates mineral resources with a far more exacting term proven reserve so yeah this point has been made before it's a very important one it may sound like there's uh basically gold to be dug there in uh in ukraine but actually getting it out of the getting all these strategic minerals out of the ground is actually complicated and expensive process

And lastly, we should just say we've got many, many messages this week. And it's not surprising given the kind of gravity of the events that have been unfolding. And we apologize for not being able to read out all of them. But this last one, I think, is quite poignant. The last one today. And it's from Andrew. And he says, just as I was writing this, someone I'm in regular contact with in Kharkiv who started sending me things about attacks within the city. This seems to include an attack on a hospital which is now reported to be on fire.

My contact can certainly hear bombs throughout the city. Have the events of today now given Russia license to remove restraint? I'm getting this from someone who's been bombed for years now and they're worried. And I think the overall point about that message, Patrick, is that the attacks from Russia, despite Trump's assertions that Russia is ready for peace, they're showing absolutely no indication of it. They are ramping up their attacks. It's not just on Kharkiv, which, of course, is very close to the front line, but also on Odessa, Georgia.

Major missile attacks were launched there recently. And frankly, Russia is going on the offensive. Is it emboldened by what's happening? Unquestionably. Will it be alarmed that there might be a mineral deal signed? Yes, absolutely. Because it could have imagined nothing more perfect than that.

the US turning off the military taps and it being allowed to continue its war of aggression with Ukraine once again having one hand tied behind its back. So we're living in dark times. We'll do all we can to keep you informed. Do join us on Wednesday for...

Battleground 45, where that war is drawing to a close. And again on Friday for another episode of Battleground Ukraine to hear all the latest developments both on the battlefront and in the chancelleries of Europe and America. Goodbye.

Hi there, Alastair Campbell here from The Rest Is Politics. Alongside my co-host Rory Stewart, we've been covering on an almost daily basis the incredible developments at the top table of global politics between Trump, Putin, Zelensky, Starmer, Macron, Merz, all those fighting to disturb or create a new world order.

As part of the show this week, Roy and I broke down the possible outcomes now on the table in the Ukraine conflict. Here's a clip. Let's say we've got three choices. We've got Ukraine tries to fight on alone without any of the US kit. Europe deploys

but it deploys without US backing. Or a third situation, which sounds great on paper, which is US security guarantees. But as we've just said, Trump is very unlikely to give them. He will completely humiliate the Europeans while pretending that he might give them. And his guarantees aren't worth the paper they're written on. You need to be serious about the fact that that third option, the security guarantee, is very unlikely to happen.

and start thinking more seriously about what happens in option one and two. So to get our thoughts on what might be happening in the end game that could shape Europe and the Western world forever, just search The Rest is Politics wherever you get your podcasts. Hi there, I'm Al Murray, co-host of We Have Ways of Making You Talk, the world's premier Second World War history podcast from Goldhanger. And I'm James Holland, best-selling World War II historian, and together we tell the best stories from the war.

This time, we're doing a deep dive into the last major attack by the Nazis on the West, the Battle of the Bulge. And what's so fascinating about this story is we've been able to show how quite a lot of the popular history about this battle is kind of the wrong way round, isn't it, Jim? The whole thing is a disaster from the start. Even Hitler's plans for the attack are insane and divorced from reality.

Well, you're so right. But what we can do is celebrate this as an American success story for the ages. From their generals at the top to the GIs on the front line full of gumption and grit, the bold should be remembered as a great victory for the USA. And if this sounds good to you, we've got a short taste for you here. Search We Have Ways wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks.

Yeah. Anyway, so who is Obersturm Van Fure Joachim Peiper? But I see his jaunty hat and I just think... And his SS skull and crossbones. Well, I see his reputation and I think, you know, you might be a handsome devil, but the emphasis is on the devil bit rather than the handsome. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway...

Be that as may, he's 29 years old and he's got a very interesting career, really, because he comes from a pretty right-wing family, let's face it. He's joined the SS at a pretty early stage. He's very international socialism. He's also been Himmler's adjutant. He took a little bit of time off in the summer of 1940 to go and fight with the 1st Waffen-SS Panzer Division.

Yeah. Did pretty well. Went back to being Himmler's adjutant. Then went off and commanded troops in the Eastern Front. Rose up to be a pretty young regimental commander. I mean, there's not many people that age. Or an Obersturmbannfuhrer, which is sort of colonel. Yes, I... You see, what must it have been like if you're in...

If Himmler's adjutant turns up and he's been posted to you as an officer, do you think, well, he only got that job because of his connections? For Piper, it must have been always, he's always having to prove himself, surely, because he has turned up. He's not worked his way through the ranks of the Waffen-SS. He's dolloped in, having come from head office, as it were.

It must be a peculiar position to be in, right? He's got lots to prove, right? That's what I'm saying. Yeah, and he's from a sort of middle-class background as well. Yeah. But he's got an older brother who's had mental illness and attempted suicide and never really recovers and actually has died of TB eventually in 1942. He's got a younger brother called Horne.

He's also joined the SS and Totenkopf Verbander and died in a never really properly explained accident in Poland in 1941. Piper gains a sort of growing reputation on the Eastern Front for being kind of very inspiring, fearless, you know, obviously courageous. You know, all the guys love him, all that kind of stuff. But he's also orders the entire the destruction of entire village of Krasnaya Polyana in a kind of revenge killing by Russian partisans.

Yeah. And his unit becomes known as the Blowtorch Battalion because of his penchant for touching Russian villages. So he's got all the gongs. He's got Iron Cross, Second Class, First Class, Cross of Gold, Knight's Cross. Did very well at Kursk. Briefly in Northern Italy, actually. Then in Ukraine. Then in Normandy, he suffers a nervous breakdown. Yeah.

Yeah. And he's relieved of his command on the 2nd of August. And he's hospitalized from September to October. So he's not in command during Operation Lutich. And then he rejoins 1st SS Panzer Regiment as its commander again in October 1944. It's really, really odd. I mean... But isn't that interesting, though? Because if you're a Lancer, if you're an ordinary soldier, you're not allowed to have a nervous breakdown. You don't get hospitalized. You don't get time off.

How you could interpret this is this is a sort of Nazi princeling, isn't he? He's him as adjutant. He's demonstrated the necessary Nazi zeal on the Eastern Front and all this sort of stuff. It comes to Normandy where they're losing. Why else would he have a nervous breakdown? He's shown all the zeal and application in the Nazi manner up to this point, and they're losing, you know. And because he's a knob, you know, because he's well connected, he gets to be hospitalized if he has a nervous breakdown. He isn't told like an ordinary German soldier, there's no such thing as combat fatigue, mate.

go back to work. Yes, and it's a nervous breakdown, not combat fatigue. Well, yes, of course. But, you know, what's the difference? One SS soldier said of him, Piper was the most dynamic man I ever met. He just got things done. Yeah. You get this image I have of him of having this kind of sort of

slightly manic energy, kind of. He's virulently National Socialist. He's got this great reputation. He's damned if anyone's going to tarnish it. You know, he's a driver, you know, all those things. He's trying to make the will triumph, isn't he? He's working towards the Fuhrer. He's imbued with, he knows what's expected of him, extreme violence and cruelty and pushing his men on. I mean, he's sort of, he's the Fuhrer Princip writ large, isn't he, as an SS officer? Yeah, yeah.

which is why cruelty and extreme violence are bundled in to wherever he goes, basically.