267. Is peace possible, or will Putin's conditions derail everything?
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Hello and welcome to Battleground with me, Patrick Bishop and Saul David. The understandable relief and cautious optimism that greeted news of an agreement in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, between Ukraine and the United States, by which Kyiv signed up to a 30-day all-round ceasefire, has given way to a realization of just how difficult this so-called breakthrough will be to translate into real peace.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the ball is now in Russia's court. Well, as always, Vladimir Putin has been slow to react to momentous events. But even as we speak, details are emerging of what Russia will be demanding in return for its compliance. And it's a pretty eye-watering list, isn't it, Saul? Yeah, it sure is. And it will be on the table very quickly as President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrives in Moscow any time now.

So very dramatic new developments in the offing, Patrick. We'll be discussing all that as well as looking at the bigger picture of the Trump presidency, particularly how the tariff war will play out, which could well impact Trump's Ukraine diplomacy. To help us do so, we'll be talking to podcast regular and Canadian resident Julius Strauss. And we're also carrying extracts from a remarkable interview I did with Katerinia Katya-Bakhtary.

Ratushna, a young woman who's been fighting since the very beginning of the full-scale war and who appears in a documentary about the war, which was recently nominated for an Oscar. It was a truly humbling experience, I have to say. Listeners, I think, will get a very strong idea from her of the motivations of the frontline soldiers. And I think

Some idea also of the depth of their commitment to keep Ukraine free. Well, as everyone's saying, the ball is in Moscow's court now, and we're getting strong indications of how Putin is going to play it. It's as we expected, isn't it, Saul? Apparent compliance.

followed by very uncompromising conditions. That's right, Patrick. We've been predicting this for a while, and now it seems to be playing out. According to reports this morning, including in the Daily Telegraph, Russia is understood to have presented the US with a list of demands for a deal to end the war in Ukraine. And the demands are thought to include no NATO membership, an agreement not to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine, which pretty much leaves Ukraine

British plans to lead that peacekeeping force in tatters. And the third element, international recognition of Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces as Russian territory. And of course, Russia does not control all four of those territories. In fact, it doesn't control completely any of those four territories. They are, of course, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhia. So as we said, Patrick, they're absolutely digging their toes in on this one. We

which will very quickly put the ball back in the Americans' court. And the question now is, how are they going to respond? Well, if true, it's a pretty well-crafted response, isn't it, Saul, I would say. It's

The U.S. has already essentially conceded that no NATO membership. And it's also said that Ukraine's got to give up any idea that's going to win back those lost territories. But of course, the Russian demand is that these territories are actually ceded forever. And there's clearly a bit of wiggle room here because Trump

said yesterday that at Jeddah we've also discussed land, he said. So that sounds to me as if there is a little bit of wiggle room there from the American perspective. But of course, it's very different to cede the notion that the Russians will stay where they currently are. That's a very totally different proposition to saying, OK, and they're actually yours. Those five areas, those five provinces, if you want to put it like that, are now Russian territory. I think that would be completely impossible for Russia

Zelensky to acknowledge or to give in on it would mean a political suicide for him, it would be an insult to the tens of thousands who've lost their lives and the many more who've actually had their lives ruined. So I think

Putin's calculating here that Trump will favor him over Zelensky when the tussle begins to continue with the tennis metaphor that everyone is using. The ball is indeed crossed the net again, and I think Zelensky will find it very hard to play. But it's not all one-sided, is it, Saul? I mean, Putin is under pretty heavy constraints too, isn't he? Not least from his own ultra-nationalists. Yeah.

Yeah, that's right. That seems to be what's happening here, Patrick. I mean, the Americans are offering, or at least it seems that they're offering a freezing on the lines and that the Europeans are going to have to pick up some of the slack as far as a peacekeeping force going into Ukraine after the deal is done. Well, the Russians aren't accepting anything even vaguely close to that. And the reason may be that

Putin is under pressure for a win in inverted commas in this war. And that would mean those four provinces, big chunks of which, of course, it doesn't actually control at this moment. So it's certainly terms that aren't going to be acceptable to the Ukrainians and almost certainly, in my view, won't be acceptable to the Americans either. So it does seem to me that the Russians are hugely overplaying this. Presumably, this is their opening gambit. But nevertheless, it's quite hard to see how those two positions might meet.

And is there a danger, if that is the case, that Trump will turn on the Russians? What are your thoughts about that, Julius? I mean, it's very interesting, isn't it? I don't think Putin likes this turn of events very much. He's very cautious. He's a chess player, and he's probably capable of outwitting Trump on the chessboard. But of course, the danger is that if Trump gets pissed off, he'll just turn the chessboard over. And then you're

you're into a whole new game that the Russians are not prepared for. I think there's a couple of other things. You know, Saul mentioned this very briefly. I mean, Putin has an ultra-nationalist camp in Russia, and he's clad himself well against the sort of Democrats over the years, but he's still vulnerable to pressure from the ultra-nationalist side. And he will be thinking to himself, you

You know, he's made such a big turn in the last several weeks where suddenly, you know, America is our friend. America is our new ally. And there are going to be a lot of people in Russia that are not happy with that. And Putin has got to be thinking to himself, if I give too much ground on this, there could be some grumblings and stirrings within my own camp. So it's a very difficult line for Putin to play. And I think, you know, under this sort of very tight time pressure that he's been put under, he has basically restated his maximalist stance.

I suppose what it really comes down to for Putin is this. Does he feel that he can bank the gains he has already got, the things that have already ostensibly been given to him, such as, you know, no NATO membership for Ukraine, such as control of the four oblasts and Crimea? Or does he feel that he has to continue to push for the more strategic gains, which are things like NATO out of Eastern Europe and Ukraine?

Another important element here would be the size of the future Ukrainian army. Will it ever be in a position to re-attack Russia? And at the moment, he seems to be doing the sort of traditional approach, traditional Russian approach, traditional Soviet approach back in the time of saying, you know, I want everything back.

come back to me with something. Yeah, this doesn't work anymore, does it? The old way of doing things doesn't really work when you're dealing with Donald Trump. I mean, Trump's an old man in a hurry, isn't he? I mean, this Nobel Peace Prize thing is real. It bugs him that Obama got it, admittedly not for particularly good reasons.

And he really, really wants it. So he's not going to be sitting around, you know, batting these proposals back and forth. He wants a quick result. He wants to leave his mark on history, get that done, move on to the next thing. So I think that Putin will find that he's going to have to come up with some pretty positive responses pretty quickly.

I'm not saying that he's going to actually sort of bend totally in a position that will benefit Ukraine, but he'll need to be thinking pretty nimbly and quickly on his feet, which is not his forte by any means, is it? So I think that everyone's got pressure on them, including Ukraine.

Trump, because he's made a great deal about how he's going to do this thing quickly. Temperamentally, that's how he does things. But also politically, he's got to do this to keep this momentum, this incredible pace of achievement as he would see it going, you know, from day one, from the moment he set foot in the room before he set foot in the White House.

So there's a lot of kind of, you know, kinetic sort of chaos going on here, which makes it very hard to see which way it's going to play out. Remember what's being demanded here, at least as far as the Americans are concerned, Patrick, and that is a 30-day truce to which...

Ukraine has now put its name and its agreed not just at sea and in the air, but also on land. So this is a complete freezing of the war. The Ukrainians have agreed to this. What the Americans are demanding of the Russians now is they also agree to this as a preamble to peace talks. We're not we're not talking about peace terms.

What the Russians are trying to do is conflate this initial cessation of hostilities with a peace deal. In other words, they want the two to actually go hand in hand. And that's where, in my view, where tactically they're horribly misplaying this. And this could result in Trump lashing out.

Now let's move to the Ukrainian standpoint. Do you think that Zelensky's basically accepted that he's got virtually no room for maneuver and his only real chance of keeping the Americans in at this point is just to go along with

Yeah. I mean, I think that Zelensky started off by asking for what he wanted, and he's realized that that got him absolutely nowhere with Trump. And I think that's a very important thing.

So now what he's doing is he's going along with the Americans in the hope that the Russians get the blame for stalling Trump's desired peace. One thing that's very interesting for me is that both the Russians and the Ukrainians seem to think that a ceasefire is not to their benefit.

The Ukrainians seem to think that, you know, a ceasefire would just give the Russians time to sort of reorganize and come back even stronger. And the Russians seem to think that a ceasefire will give the Ukrainians a bit of breathing space and possibly some diplomatic space.

I mean, in a sense, they can't both be right, but they both are giving out that kind of that sense and that that that vibe, if you like. I do think very much that Zelensky has agreed to the ceasefire because he wants to show willing with Trump and he wants to repair things with Trump, not because he thinks it's a good idea for Ukraine.

Yeah, I agree with that. Meanwhile, of course, he's hoping that his negotiators and obviously himself eventually can persuade the Americans to shift ground a little bit on a few crucial areas. And one of them, of course, is security guarantees after the war is over.

An extra element of pressure, of course, which we should have mentioned, Patrick, or which is the sort of elephant in the room, is that Russia is still making gains on the battlefield. Not much in Donetsk anymore, but it's pretty much cleared the incursion into Kursk, or it seems like it's going to in the next few days. So as far as the ultra-nationalist position is concerned, why on earth would we agree to a ceasefire when we're actually regaining Russian territory and, they hope, more Ukrainian territory?

Yeah, it is strange what's happening in Kursk at the moment, isn't it? You've got conflicting reports with the Russians saying they're on the point of expelling the Ukrainians altogether. Ukrainians saying they've still got an enclave around Sudzha, which, of course, it doesn't really matter how much territory you've got. As long as you've got some territory, I would have thought that the actual size of your holding is kind of irrelevant because it's ultimately symbolic, isn't it? As long as you've got some Russian territory, you've got a bargaining chip.

So, yeah, I mean, thinking about what, just switching slightly to another thing Trump said, has said in the last few hours or late last night, which is these economic threats, which he's made. He's reiterated this threat that he can make life unpleasant economically for Russia. He says there are things you could do that wouldn't be pleasant in a financial sense. I can do things financially better.

He said this in the Oval Office. How credible do you think that is? I mean, he said it before. I think the analysis at the time was that there's actually not a huge amount that he can do. I mean, Russia's already sanctioned up the wazoo, isn't it, from the entire, well, not the entire world, but from a big chunk of the world. There's no tariff pain he can inflict on Russia because Russian exports to America are minuscule. I mean, there is one thing he can do, which is

He hasn't done before, which the Biden administration tried to do, which is to twist Saudi Arabia's arm in particular to increase oil production and thereby deflate the international oil price. Now, that would have an effect. So he has got...

some weapons in his armory on the economic front. But I wonder how serious he is about them. What do you think? Sorry, I'll jump in for just a second here. Patrick, just one thing on the Kursk. I've been trying to watch this very carefully. I think there's actually a bigger danger for the Ukrainians here, which is that

the Russians seem to be attacking around the Ukrainians into Ukraine proper in an effort to cut off the one single supply road into Kursk. And if they do that, I think they will get the whole of Kursk in short order. But more importantly, they're going to cut off a lot of really sort of good Ukrainian troops. So I think that my impression is that, you know, Kursk is more or less over for the Ukrainians, and it could be even worse than that. They may not be able to

get all their personnel out. On the other side, this thing with Donbass is very interesting because the Ukrainians seem to have stopped the Russian advances in Donbass altogether, more or less. And they've even taken back a few villages here and there. So it's a very mixed picture on the battlefield. In financial terms, the one thing I have seen is that Trump is mentioning

sanctioning India, for example, for buying Russian oil, for putting some kind of punitive measure into place to try and stop India and possibly China buying Russian oil and therefore hurt them that way. But whether that is even feasible, I really don't know.

I think the most important thing about Trump turning on Russia is he's either all in or he's all out, as we've seen. The taps have now been turned on again as far as aid to Ukraine is concerned. So it's sort of job done, at least as far as Zelensky's tactics are concerned for now. The weapons are going back in and they're now also getting intelligence. So I think it's the kind of moon music and all of this, Patrick, that's pretty important. And he does seem to be moving into an

anti-Russian phase and the initial response from the Russians to the proposal for a 30-day truce will only increase that pressure, I suspect. Yeah, well, we will be finding out pretty soon. Unfortunately, we can't

and give you our reaction as to what the outcome of the Witkoff talks in Moscow are, because we don't know what they haven't started yet. But as soon as we do hear anything, we'll be on with an emergency pod to give you our analysis. But in the meantime, let's pivot, as we now always say about everything, to this parallel drama that's been unfolding, which, of course, is the tariff war. Now, the rhetoric flying across the U.S.,

Canada border has been surreal. And some of the sites we've seen, like Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of England, and formerly seen, I think, by everyone as the epitome of civilized reasonableness, warning Washington that Canada was ready to come out swinging if Trump's economic policies.

bullying did not cease. Well, Julius, you've got skin in the game. You're a Canadian resident. You've got your ranch there. You know what Canadians think. What's your take on it? Yeah, I mean, I've never really seen Canadians in this mode before. You know, as we all know, Canadians are very polite and reasonable, and they don't usually talk like this. One of the things, even though, you know, I have lived in Canada for 20 years and I'm a

I'm a Canadian citizen. I don't get all the hockey jargon yet because that comes with many, many decades of living in Canada. So Carney was using expressions like throw down the gloves, pick up the shield. I don't know. I can't remember exactly what they were. Sorry to interrupt there. That one, because I was, I think most people in the world would have been baffled by that. Then when Carney said, when someone drops the gloves,

yeah as this is some kind of uh throwing down the gauntlet type metaphor but that's an ice hockey metaphor is it yeah it is i mean i'm i'm not a great fan of ice hockey but i know enough basically every ice hockey game at some stage during the match there will be a physical confrontation with fists and the way they do that is they drop their gloves basically each team's got an enforcer to you know to i.e the hardest man on the team and they put him out they put him forward and this is a form of intimidation it's all

considered to be, you know, a part of the spectacle and the fans love it. So that's what he's referring to. I mean, if he's talking about the Canadian side dropping their gloves, that is quite a pugnacious metaphor to use. Yeah, no, absolutely. And, you know, and this is the one side of the Canadian character that doesn't sort of

fit or gel with the rest of it. They are very polite and they're very nice and they're very accommodating until it comes to hockey. You know, when they get on an ice hockey rink, that sort of all goes out the window and the inner thug emerges. And that's where this throw down the gloves thing comes from.

Going to the meat of the matter for a minute, I've been trying to follow this sort of tariff back and forth thing, and it's complicated because it just keeps changing all the time. You know, it started off that Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and then he paused them and then he reimposed them and then he paused them and then he took some off and then he made a carve out for the car industry. But basically where we're at now is he put 25 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel coming from Canada.

Canada responded by saying Doug Ford, who is the premier of Ontario, so one of the provinces, responded by putting a surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. Trump then went to 50 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel tariffs.

Ford removed the electricity surcharge in exchange for a meeting with Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary. And then Trump went back to 25 percent. Anyway, so there's a lot of sort of backwards and forwards and it's it's sort of happening. Something new is happening every day. But basically, the situation is this.

If Canada and the U.S. get into a trade spat, Canada is going to lose massively and the U.S. will lose somewhat. And I think that's what Trump is banking on in terms of his sort of bargaining power. And then the second thing, perhaps even more important, is these constant references to

to the U.S. taking Canada, taking over Canada, Canada becoming the 51st state of the U.S. And in the beginning, people thought it was just a sort of a joke and poor taste. But now they're really beginning to take this seriously. They don't know what it would mean. But yesterday we saw, you know, President Trump's spokesman in the White House saying that he thinks it would be good for Canadians to join the U.S.,

And they'd be a lot better off economically. And the subtext was we're going to keep punishing Canada economically until they sort of have a think about whether they want that or not. And, of course, Canadians don't want that. This is bringing out the patriotism and, to a certain extent, the nationalism in them. They're booing the Americans at hockey matches. There's a very, very strong anti-American feeling there.

And, you know, just to bring up a last point, we're going into an election now in Canada. Mark Carney, the former Bank of England boss, is now the head of the Liberal Party, and he's going to be fighting an election against the Conservatives, who are led by a guy called Peter Polyever, who is...

traditionally pro-Trump. And so the last thing that Carney's going to do going into this election is show some sign of weakness. He's talking all about getting respect from Trump. In the meantime, things just don't look good. Canada could be facing a very serious economic, I mean, more than a recession, a sort of a serious economic slump if this tariff issue is not resolved. Okay.

Okay, that's it for this half. Do join us in part two to hear an extract from the remarkable interview that Patrick did with Katerina Ratushina, the commander of the Saigon Special Forces Unit in Kharkiv and an accidental film star following her appearance in an Oscar-nominated documentary.

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Tell me about your trip to Los Angeles the other day. I mean, to us, it seems totally surreal. You would be in Kharkiv on the front lines one week, and then you're shaking hands with Hollywood celebrities. Tell me about that experience. It was not an easy experience. It was not an easy experience.

And the point is, it's very important for us to visit peaceful places, peaceful cities, to understand that our normal, even here in Kharkiv, sitting with a cappuccino in a cafe, it's not a healthy normal, which it used to be before.

I don't mean that we should build our life exactly as it is in Los Angeles. No, we had our own normal state and we still have to like to have some kind of an example.

Just a reference that we should make our life peaceful again. We should be free to move around during nighttime without any limitations. For example, being in the military, I have no limitations, but all the civilians should stay home from the midnight till the six o'clock in the morning. They cannot leave their houses.

It was a big contrast. When people were shaking my hand and greeting me and saying me warm support, well, you know, it was very pleasant on the one hand. And on the other hand, there was like some kind of a question like, guys, I really appreciate your support, but I understand that it is so difficult for you to support us in real life.

to support us in practice. And I was not able to give them any advice or give them any meaningful feedback more than just thank you. Yeah, yeah. Well, on your LinkedIn, you do talk about that a bit. And on our show, we're always flagging up

good causes charities where you can send money for humanitarian or indeed to purchase drones or whatever so yeah that's there's plenty of places where you can send your money but it's not very coordinated i have to say now earlier on you said this war is going to go on for a long time as we're speaking uh the ukrainian delegation are meeting for the first time with the

U.S. delegation in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Do you have any optimism about what might come out of that? It's difficult to talk about optimism here because we are too close to the enemy and the enemy bombs my city every night. We should be realists.

We understand that the only thing I am absolutely confident about is that we will not give up. We will not give up regardless of the upcoming result. Regardless. I just, you know, it's really hard to me to say something except of we will win. It's really hard because I understand what will be the consequences of we lose this war.

In Ukraine, here in Ukraine, it's a very popular question in the society to ask, what does the victory mean to you? It's a very popular question here. And everybody, regardless of is he or she in the army or is he or she a civilian person, everybody starts saying something like,

It will be a peaceful sky. We will be all happy. Nobody should be like obliged to join army, something like this. But I have another question. I always ask them, guys, what does it mean to lose for you? It's not a comfortable question. It's a hard question. And everybody is afraid to ask this question.

Those who have been at war, who have seen what happens to occupied territories and what happens to territories at the front line, we have a very clear answer to this question. Very clear.

We also have understanding that all victims who were killed, who are now like arrested in Russia, all of them will be like for nothing. All of them will be lost. And it's a very hard situation. Those who don't understand what will happen if we lose, they don't value the victory as they should. And they don't contribute to this victory as they can.

So if I'm understanding you right, for some people, it's just that peace would be the absence of war, that the war stops. But if you've been engaged in the war, if you've been doing the fighting, if you've been seeing your comrades killed, seeing the destruction that's been done, knowing what happens to prisoners when they're captured, if they're lucky enough to survive, not being shot straight away out of hand.

You want justice as well. You want some degree of justice, don't you? Absolutely. And also, you know, it means that the peace should come without their participation. Just without. Don't touch them. Without their participation. They are waiting until the situation, until we won this war. Sometimes they ask, Hey, Kate, so when will we won? And I ask them, Guys, what do you mean? Me and you? Like...

Like me and you? Who will won? Me and you? Join me. Join me. I will show you an effective way to resist, to fight, saving your life, eliminating the risks. Of course, we cannot exclude them. We all understand that everybody could be killed right here, right now. But we can eliminate these risks and raise up your efficiency. And I know how to do it. I know where to do it.

But it's a problem. It's a problem. It's more comfortable to talk about future victory, but not about a possible loss of this war. What about territory? Does that mean a lot? Well, obviously it means a lot to you, but is it vital? Do you think that Ukraine hangs on to its pre-2014 orders or would you be

prepared to compromise on territory if you were sure that your safety was guaranteed, your security was guaranteed, not just by yourselves, which is of course the most important and the first only one you can rely on these days,

but by outsiders, be they American, Europeans or whatever? It's a great question. Well, let's first of all create some understanding of what kind of terrain are we talking now about. Almost all of this terrain is completely destroyed. The houses should not be rebuilt again.

The soil is absolutely poisoned with bombs and with the products of, like, explosives. It could not be used for planting crops, for example. It's poisoned. It will cost... I cannot imagine how... the amount of money.

and efforts like human job to restore all of the territory. It's what we're talking about. And the social and political meaning, I am sure that it's very important to get all the territories back. Just to show that

Any Terrant is allowed to just get a part of territory of neighbor country. It should not create precedent. We cannot allow this. We should get the terrain back. Crimea occupied Donbass, occupied Kharkiv region, parts of Kharkiv region, occupied parts of Sumer region, occupied sea territory. It's very important.

And it's very important to create the demilitarized side. Demilitarized? I can't say it either. On the Russian side, on their side, but not ours. On their side of the border, yeah. Interesting. Now, you've seen two Americas, haven't you, in the last couple of weeks? You see the America that welcomes you and applauds you and celebrates you absolutely everywhere.

it should be. And you see the other America, the MAGA America, the America of Trump, which has basically betrayed Ukraine, but betrayed America as well, it betrayed American values, in my view. What do you make of that? First of all, it was very confusing for me when just ordinary people in

in the streets when they understood who I am they apologized for two things the first apology was for like the political the politicians and the second apology was about they insisted that I have to look at their phone and to view their private Facebook feed which was absolutely yellow and blue

with statements, we support Ukraine, we stand with Ukraine, and so on and so on. And it was something like, you know, they were saying like, it's not ours. We support you. I personally support you. Just look at my feed. Look at my Facebook feed. It's all blue and yellow.

That's it. What's for the situation in general? It was a very complicated really. It influenced our behavior. It influenced what we were talking. Of course, I don't think that it could be a surprise for somebody that, of course, we discussed the situation internally. We came to an agreement how not to harm the attitude to Ukraine more.

How to keep us aligned with our Ukrainian government, regardless of our personal attitude. It's very important. It was all about external politics. It was all about diplomacy. And

Actually, we were not attending Oscars as private persons, like private person Katya, private person Slava, and so on and so on. We were all representatives of Ukraine. We were not common visitors of the Dobby Theater. We were diplomats.

Well, you can hear the interview more or less in its entirety, and a special we'll be putting out shortly. So keep an eye on your feed and you'll see it flagged up as soon as it's ready. OK, first question from Keith in Galway in Ireland. And he writes, from the early stages of this war, a lot of hope was placed on the dissatisfaction of the Russian population with the war and the hope that Putin's regime could eventually implode.

The sight of the US president is number two berating Zelensky on national TV has totally reset that hope. Do you think it's possible or have you considered that Trump is actually afraid to continue the pressure on Putin that unlike Biden or any other capable leader, he subconsciously or otherwise knows he wouldn't be able to handle the possibility of, for instance, Putin using a tactical nuke? He doesn't want to go down the road of challenging Putin because he's terrified of the possibilities.

Any thought on that, Patrick and Julius? I mean, I'm not entirely convinced that's his main motivation. I have to say, what do you think? Well, I think the first part of the question is the important, interesting one. A lot of hope placed on the dissatisfaction of the Russian population with this war. Now, that's a subject that we've gone back and forth on, isn't it, from the very beginning?

And the sad truth seems to be that the 20-year campaign to crush the opposition, to crush all hope that Russia could become a democratic state anytime soon has been successful. And so, as Julius was saying earlier, Putin has nothing to fear from the would-be Democrats in the country. And his only real threat comes from Russia.

from the right, from the ultra-nationalist backed very much by a kind of orthodox church view of the world, a sort of perverse spirituality, I suppose you could call it. So, yeah, I don't think anything that's happening now is going to change that. Yeah, I think it's interesting. I mean, the people that, you know, I sort of really trust on Russian public opinion have been saying the same thing for a while, which is that, you

you know, you've got roughly 20% of people who support this war, roughly 20% of people who really don't like the war and roughly 60% of people who are not going to take a position and just want it all to go away. They'll kind of go along with what's happening, but they're not particularly enthusiastic. Now, I think where things could change is,

And perhaps this is this has a parallel with Trump in the US as well, is if prices start going up. So the Russian economy, as we know, is beginning to not do so well. We're getting into a period of rising prices and lower growth and inflation.

staples especially are really beginning to go up in price and that will affect the 60 percent of people now does that mean they're all going to start marching on the streets i doubt it very much but even dictators have to pay attention to their own people and their wishes and this war is going to start hitting russians in the pocketbook and that could change the dynamic

I mean, interestingly, on that subject, because it links with Russia's reaction to these peace proposals, you know, do you think there's extra pressure on Putin to end the war? Yes, he needs a win. Yes, he needs something that's going to convince the ultra-nationalists that they got most of what they were aiming for at the start of the war. But is it in the back of his mind? And is that one of the reasons why there have been some vaguely positive signals sent the Americans' way that they want to end the war? Because he can see this looming economic problem.

I think Putin is conflicted. This is my sense. I think on the one side, you know, he's a man in his 70s and he's looking at legacy and he definitely wants...

his legacy to be Ukraine back under Russia's orbit, you know, an expanding Russian empire and all the things that we've talked about a lot. And the other side, he's looking at the Russian economy six to 12 months down the line. And he's wondering if that is going to cause him a major problem that could even unseat him. And these two things are probably going on at the same time. I think what we have seen in this latest Russian response is a fundamental shift

In flexibility, if you like, that Russia and Putin, especially, they're not particularly quick on their feet to respond to new inputs and new information. Their strength is in their sort of resilience in holding to a certain line for a long period of time. So we'll have to see how that internal contradiction plays out.

Okay, moving on, we've got a couple of questions from Poland. The first one from Dennis Batten in Albury, New South Wales in Australia. Can either of you foresee a situation where Poland commits troops in this conflict? Surely it is in Poland's strategic interests

to ensure that Ukraine's borders are maintained. If I'm reading the situation correctly, Poland's army is well-maintained, professional, and with Ukrainian battlefield experience, would be more than a match for the depleted and ragtag Russian army of 2025. It's an interesting thought, isn't it? I think

The business of Poland not committing troops to in a peacekeeping role is quite straightforward. And their argument is we have a contiguous border with Russia and we need to keep our army to defend Poland, which might be next in their view. So it's in no way is this not a commitment to trying to keep Ukraine a sovereign territory and supporting Ukraine. It's simply because they they feel that their home defense must come first.

Yeah, I think that's right. And there's another one here from Lukasz in Krakow, saying regarding the threat of cutting Ukraine off from satellite internet connection, there's a plot twist. He says Starlinks are paid for and maintained by Poland, which is showered with praise by the current US administration. If this threat was to be acted on,

then it would become clear that the supposed brilliant genius businessman at the White House will be happy to throw everyone under the bus, an ally or business partner. Well, historically, that's the way Trump has done things. But yeah, I mean, Poland's in a kind of anomalous situation slightly there, isn't it? Because on the one hand, it is the poster boy for European defense. If everyone was like Poland, then Washington would be delighted.

But on the other hand, there are all sorts of potential frictions in this story. It is interesting that we can never get, even though the current situation sort of drives us to make damning utterances about the role of various players on the American side, we should always be aware of the nuances where they exist. And of course, the case of Starlink is,

Ukraine has got very good reason to thank Elon Musk for his support from the outset of the conflict. And his later, what he's saying now, seems to be at odds with that. But we mustn't lose sight of the fact that they do owe him quite significantly for the ability he gave them initially to actually defend themselves via Starlink. We've got a question here about

Hungary and EU voting, which I think is in Julius's wheelhouse. It's from Brian Halsworth of another Australian, Waragal, Victoria. And he writes, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is continually blackmailing and blocking the EU from supporting Ukraine. If the EU is not careful, other countries like Slovakia could be joining Hungary, and this will undermine the credibility and integrity of the EU.

The EU, as a result, must suspend the Hungarian Fidesz party's voting rights. The far right wing and far left wing parties have become Russian collaborators. Something must be done before this problem spreads. Interesting that that's coming from an Australian rather than a European. But, Julius, what's your feeling about that? Well, of course, Hungary has been the most

pro-Russian member of the EU for quite some time now. And they have, you know, they put in a lot of blocking maneuvers in terms of funding Ukraine, funding the Ukrainian economy, funding the Ukrainian military. The question is what to do about that. The EU, as far as I'm aware, doesn't have a mechanism for kicking people out.

And of course, the EU is going to be very, very reluctant to kick anybody out because it brings into question the status of other members. So if you kick out Hungary, what happens to Slovakia? If you kick out Hungary and Slovakia, what happens if the Polish right get back in and so on and so on?

So I think for now, it's like a sort of, you know, Hungary and the EU are like a sort of an unhappily married couple where Hungary needs the money to continue coming from the EU to support its economy. But at the same time, it is continuously criticizing almost everything that the EU does. But they seem to be stuck with each other for the time being. In the long term, it's very difficult to imagine how they're going to square these differences. And maybe we are heading to some kind of divorce further down the line. Go.

Got one here, which is a very interesting what if from John concerning China. He says, I've got a question concerning the rare earth minerals in Ukraine. I believe China is being underestimated in the current chaos caused by Donald Trump. Would it not be a real power play for the Chinese to go to Zelensky and essentially give Ukraine a much improved deal for the rare earth minerals?

I imagine the Americans have really low-balled Ukraine with their offer so China could swoop in, get the rights to the minerals, humiliate Trump, stick two fingers up to the West and put Putin back in his box. Now, what do you think? It's not a bad problem.

Proposition, is it? I personally think it would be far too provocative, mostly for Ukraine, because that would really put them at odds not just with America, but with the European allies as well. But, you know, in this situation, everything seems to be possible, doesn't it? What are your thoughts, guys?

Well, that's very much a last resort, I think, if Ukraine was to respond to that. I mean, first of all, China's got to make the first approach. There's no sign of that happening. And then Zelensky would have to respond. But he absolutely is a long way from that at the moment, Patrick. I mean, most of Ukraine's arms, as we've mentioned many times, come from the US. They want that to continue. They are continuing at the moment. So I think events have really moved

beyond this scenario for the foreseeable future, although they could turn, of course. If Russia actually persuades the US, worst case scenario in my view, that actually it needs better terms and America thinks, yeah, fair enough, let's throw them a bit more of a bone and those are unacceptable to Zelensky, which is a possible scenario, then of course things could turn very quickly and China might come into the frame a little bit. But I can't really see it happening, I must admit. Just to jump in on the China issue, I mean, I've

You know, I felt for a while that China is the sort of, it's almost the adult in the room at the moment. It's not that it's necessarily a benevolent adult, but it

It is playing a cautious game. It sees itself as coming out of this whole change in the world better off than it went into it. And it's not going to take any sort of outsized risks or play any sort of mad gambits at this point, because I think it thinks it's doing fairly well. So, yeah, I kind of agree with you on this one. So I don't think China is going to try and pull a fast one in that way.

Okay, final question. Apologies for not answering them all, but we've had a lot of ground to cover today. And this is fascinating. I never heard of this before. I'd be interested in your thoughts on this, Patrick and Julius. But this message has been sent in to us from Arnie, and he writes, a Polish friend of mine sent me this.

attached the other day in case you haven't seen it. And this is a letter from the former president of Poland, Lech Walesa, who wrote the following letter to Trump. Your Excellency, Mr. President, we watched the report of your conversation with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, with fear and distaste. We find it insulting that you expect Ukraine to show respect and gratitude for the material assistance provided by the United States in its fight against Russia. Gratitude is owed to the heroic Ukrainian soldiers who shed their blood in defense of their values of the

free world. They've been dying on the front line for more than 11 years in the name of these values and the independence of their homeland, which was attacked by Putin's Russia. He goes on to say, we do not understand how the leader of a country that symbolizes the free world cannot recognize this. Now, to say more about Lech Wałęsa, older

Listeners of my vintage will hold him in very, very high regard. We all remember this heroic figure. He was a shipyard worker in the Gdansk and Gdynia shipyards. So he was a founder member and the most public face of the Solidarity Movement, which was essentially a trade union group, which came to symbolize Poland's long, proud history of independence and stood up to the communist regime and

And basically, it was their series of strikes and political actions that undermined communist rule in Poland and paved the way for Polish independence and indeed was part of the whole process of bringing down the Iron Curtain. So a great, great man, he had a big, thick kind of walrus moustache, instantly recognisable, charismatic face.

And, you know, one of the great heroes of democracy in the 20th century. What this tells us is that people like him and everything they represented now feel betrayed. And they recognize in Ukraine the standard bearers for those great post-war ambitions and hopes for the world, that the world would become a peaceful place, a place where

Human rights are sacred and that everyone can go around their peaceful existence trying to make themselves and their neighbors happier, more prosperous, and generally improve everyone's lot. That world appears to have come to an end. If it's someone like Lech Wałęsa to come out and say it so forcefully and so eloquently, I doubt if Trump even remembers who Lech Wałęsa was. It's a sort of powerful statement.

That's all we have time for. Do keep an eye on your feeds because if there are any developments breaking in the next few days, we'll put out an emergency pod. Barring that, do join us next Wednesday for another episode of Battleground 45 and of course the latest news from Ukraine on Friday. Goodbye.