270. Failed Diplomacy: Putin Rejects Trump's Peace Push in Ukraine
54:20 Share

Respect. When we up out of here...

We

When you check out at the pharmacy, you see the journey from idea to medicine, thanks to our intellectual property system, or IP for short. IP safeguards inventions, like a new way to prevent seizures or lower cholesterol. And IP supports competition from other brands, then lower-cost generics, which are 90% of prescriptions filled in the U.S. Innovation. Competition. Lower costs.

Thanks to IP. Learn more at phrma.org slash IPWorksWonders.

Your data is like gold to hackers. They'll sell it to the highest bidder. Are you protected? McAfee helps shield you, blocking suspicious texts, malicious emails, and fraudulent websites. McAfee's secure VPN lets you browse safely, and its AI-powered text scam detector spots threats instantly. You'll also get up to $2 million of award-winning antivirus and identity theft protection, all for just $39.99 for your first year. Visit McAfee.com. Cancel any time. Terms apply.

Hello and welcome to the Battleground podcast with me, Saul David and Roger Morehouse. In a moment, we'll be getting an update from the frontline in Ukraine from young Hungarian war reporter, Volodzor Gyori. But first, the latest from another dramatic week on the diplomatic front. On Tuesday, Donald Trump had his long-awaited phone call with Vladimir Putin to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine. The outcome?

Putin rejected Trump's demand for an immediate 30-day ceasefire on air, land and sea. Instead, the Russian president threw Trump a very small bone by promising not to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure. And of course, hours later, Russia reneged on that promise, surprise, surprise, by launching a massive drone and missile attack that hit, among other targets, energy infrastructure in the city of Slovyansk in Donetsk, leaving part of the city of 100,000 people without electricity.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians said they responded with a long-range drone strike against an oil depot in the Krasnodar region of Russia, damaging a pipeline and sparking a large blaze. This in turn prompted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to accuse Kiev of derailing Trump's peace initiative. According to Peskov...

Russia had actually shot down some of its own drones to stick to the terms of the partial ceasefire. If it wasn't so serious, it would be laughable. You really couldn't make this stuff up, could you, Saul? You couldn't. I mean, that bit about shooting down their own drones. Really, Roger, really? Absurd.

Utter nonsense. So let's just recap for a moment, shall we? Last week, the Trump administration told President Zelensky of Ukraine that he would never receive another U.S. weapon or intelligence report unless he agreed in principle to a 30-day ceasefire immediately. So what did Zelensky do? He agreed to that. Now, immediately after those discussions in Saudi Arabia, Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, declared that the ball was now in Russia's court.

Hence the 90 minute phone call between Trump and Putin that should have resulted in Russia returning the ball. In other words, agreeing to a 30 day ceasefire. Instead, Putin rejected a full ceasefire and agreed instead to pause attacks on. And this is what the Americans claim. Actually, the Russians claim something slightly different energy and infrastructure issues.

According to the Russians, it was just an agreement to stop attacking energy. And that's important, of course, Roger, because it means they can, with impunity, keep it in hospitals, for example, which they did the following night. And even that agreement, even the Americans claimed agreement didn't last long. But even before the Russian violation, there was no announcement from the White House that America was now going to get

tough to stop the killing. Instead, the US readout of the phone call enthuses how, and I quote, an improved bilateral relationship between the US and Russia has a huge upside, including enormous economic deals of geopolitical stability. I mean, what parallel universe are we living in here, Roger? But what can we conclude from all of this? That Putin has defied Trump and

and got away with it. Yeah. And even if the Russians had stopped their attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, it would have been a Pyrrhic victory anyway for Kyiv. And why? Because their own attacks on Russian oil refineries have been much more damaging for the Russian economy than Moscow's strikes in the other direction. As one commentator wrote,

Putin has played his familiar trick of agreeing to something that binds Ukraine's hands much more tightly than his own. Trump's own spin on all of this was that his conversation with Putin was, quote, very good and productive, and that we will be working quickly to have a complete ceasefire and ultimately to end, end in capital letters, of course, this being Trump, an end to this horrible war between Russia and Ukraine.

His envoy, meanwhile, Stephen Vitkoff, said that Trump and Putin have a great rapport together and that the call was very positive, very proactive, outcome-oriented, and that's who President Trump is. This is all Vitkoff's words. He's there to get to the goal line, and we went a long way yesterday to doing that.

He also said that talks on a ceasefire deal will begin on Sunday in Jeddah and that the agreement with Russia was for a cessation of attacks on energy and infrastructure, as you just explained, Saul.

Yeah. And note, Roger, that the talks beginning on Sunday in Jeddah are between the Americans and the Russians. No sign of the Ukrainians. Now, nobody else was fooled by this charade. Speaking in Helsinki on Wednesday, President Zelensky said even last night when Putin allegedly said he had given the order to stop strikes on Ukrainian energy targets, 150 drones struck energy infrastructure areas.

and transport. He added that Putin's words were very different from reality and that Ukraine needed defense, support, and pressure on Russia.

Many European leaders agreed. Boris Pistorius, Germany's defence minister, said attacks had, and I quote, not eased at all in the first night after this supposedly groundbreaking great phone call. Note the use of the word supposedly. Kaya Kalas, the EU's top diplomat, went even further by insisting that Putin's call with Trump showed that Russia was not interested in making concessions.

What Russia wants is that Ukraine will let all the guards down, she said. If they achieve that no military aid goes to Ukraine, then they are free to continue because the Ukrainians can't defend themselves. So, I mean, clearly this can't work. I'm tempted to say thank God for Kaya Kallus. I think she's one of those that actually...

actually gets what's going on in the eastern half of the continent of Europe. Yeah, does it matter, Roger, on that subject that, of course, she comes from one of the Baltic republics? You know, we've often talked about the front line, haven't we? But they really are on the front line. Yes, and they sort of get it, you know, historically, and, you know, it's very much in their bones that they understand the Russian threat, and crucially, I think, how Russia operates as well. So...

You know, I'm delighted that she's in the public arena in the way that she is. Anyway, to carry on with that, the Putin call was followed by another one from Trump to Zelensky on Wednesday, which lasted for an hour and was, according to the US president, very good news.

Trump said on Truth Social, quote, much of the discussion was based on the call made yesterday with President Putin in order to align both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs. We are very much on track, he said. Zelensky himself said that he had a positive, very substantive and frank conversation with Mr. Trump. He added, I thanked President Trump and the American people for their support and

I stressed that Ukrainians want peace, which is why Ukraine accepted the proposal for an unconditional ceasefire. So far, of course, so inevitable. What was not foreseen was Trump's offer to take ownership of Ukrainian power plants in order to protect the country against further Russian attacks.

Mr Trump said the United States can be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise. Again, this all sort of speaks to Trump's view of all of this as a sort of transactional business deal.

It's fascinating, this stuff about the electricity and utilities, isn't it, Roger? Because, you know, some commentators are saying, well, actually, he's realized that the so-called minerals deal is not going to be that useful to the US and they need something else. And this, in effect, is a taking over of the nuclear reactors. I think Ukraine's got six, hasn't it? One of which is, of course, in Russian hands in Zaporizhia. And it seems that Trump's now got his eye on those. Now,

From the Ukrainian point of view, this may not be a bad idea because what you want to do is get not least because it might mean the return of Zaporizhzhia, which is currently in Russian hands, as we say. But secondly, because if America is going to take over the running of those plants, then obviously it's not going to put up with any nonsense in terms of Russia trying to continue the war. So it may not be the worst thing in the world.

Trump also agreed, interestingly enough, to continue sharing intelligence and providing military assistance, which is something that the Russians have been briefing they want to see an end to. And that's, of course, Callas's point. You know, you can't just let your guard down because this will give Russia an opportunity to continue the war later. But despite all this positive spit,

there's been little in the last few days, honestly, to genuinely hearten President Zelensky or his people. It's become clear to me, I think it probably has to both of us, Roger, that Trump is unwilling or unable to put any real pressure on Putin. And as a result, the Russians are doubling down on

on their maximalist war aims, which are, let us just repeat again, international recognition for Crimea and the four Ukrainian provinces, that it, and I put these in inverted commas, annexed in 2022, and the resolution of the so-called root causes of the war, which from the Russian perspective is code for the demilitarization of Ukraine and the replacement of Zelensky's administration with one more amenable to Russia, more like a Belarus scenario. So

Given that those are the two positions, it's really hard to see where we go from here, isn't it? The one chink of light in all of this, as I've said many times on the podcast in the last couple of weeks, is that Europe finally seems to be getting its act together and is standing firm in its support for Ukraine.

First, Roger, and this is your wheelhouse, we had Germany dropping its debt break and promising to spend significant sums of money on rearmament. Then came the unveiling of a European Commission defence strategy to rearm Europe with the aim of military readiness by 2030. And again, we've got

Kaya Kalas, the EU's foreign affairs chief, talking about this. She said the EU faced an existential threat from Russia. You know, that's pretty clear where she's coming from in all of this. Even if Trump negotiates a Ukraine ceasefire, the paper delaying

detailing the strategy noted that the international order is undergoing changes of a magnitude not seen since 1945. It added, if Russia is allowed to achieve its goals in Ukraine, its territorial ambition will extend beyond Russia and will remain a fundamental threat to Europe's security for the foreseeable future, including its more aggressive nuclear posture, as she's not mincing her words there.

Not at all. I was actually quite surprised by the... pleasantly surprised, I would say, by Germany's dropping of its debt break this week. I was one of those rather Eeyore-ish characters that sort of couldn't imagine that reality would intrude into the German mindset. And of course...

You know, we have to bear in mind that to a certain degree, talk is still cheap. They still have to put the hardware where their words are at the moment, put it that way. But, you know, fingers crossed that this is a positive development in that respect. And you can see it as well with the EU's reaction to Starlink. So there's a promise by the EU to fund Starlink.

Ukraine's continued access to satellite internet in the battlefield after Elon Musk threatened to cut off access to Starlink if Ukraine didn't sign that infamous minerals deal with the US. And you can kind of see where all of this is heading to some extent, Saul. Europe is arming itself and Ukraine. Let's hope that that all comes to pass.

but with arms crucially chiefly manufactured in Europe itself, which of course does mean rebuilding a lot of that industrial capacity. So this is one of the unintended consequences of Trump's value-free agenda and of his actions in effectively selling Europe down the river. So it will be...

enormous damage that will be done to the US arms industry, with its global customers beginning to look elsewhere for military hardware. And I think it's interesting in this respect that the Poles, mentioning Kayakalas earlier on, an Estonian who understands, you know, the Russian threat, the Poles, of course, fall into the same category of being acutely aware historically of the Russian threat. But it's interesting that when they started

you know, their radical rearmament program a couple of years ago, they didn't look to the U S primarily. They looked to Korea. And I think partly at the time that was because of speed, because the, the feeling was that the Koreans could supply them, you know, with tanks and artillery pieces very, very quickly and,

But it's looking like an inspired choice now because the fear for, I think, many of those customers of American armed systems and particularly these F-35 fighters, for example, the Germans and the Canadians are already looking at possibly cancelling their multi-billion dollar orders for those aircraft over fears that the jets might in effect have a US controlled off switch.

So this whole question of European rearmament is one which could inadvertently serve to further entrench American isolationism. Yeah. And meanwhile, Roger, and this gets to the real heart of the issue with Russia and why it is such a monstrous threat, obviously to Ukraine at the moment, but also to Europe more generally, is

United Nations Commission's finally done something useful and has actually said and made no bones about the fact that Russia's widespread and systematic use of enforced disappearances and torture. I mean, this year alone, apparently up to 50,000 Ukrainians in occupied territories have disappeared. Well, those enforced disappearances and torture of Ukrainians amount to crimes against humanity. Large numbers of civilians were detained in areas that came under Russian control or were deported to Russia where some later suffered torture.

for torture and sexual violence, according to this report, which was by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry.

And I quote the report, both were perpetrated as part of a widespread and systematic attack that's officially sanctioned against the civilian population and pursuant to a state-coordinated policy. This, in reality, is the true nature of the regime that Trump thinks he can do business with. Indeed. Okay, as promised, we're now going to hear from young Hungarian war reporter Baldur Zagyuri, who recently returned from a trip to the front lines.

Baldy, welcome back on the podcast. Hi Sol, hi James, hi listeners. It's good to be back. Now you're currently in Hungary, back in Budapest, but you have, of course, you are living mostly in Kharkiv and you have returned from a visit to the front lines. Tell us what you found there. Yeah, so I got the chance to visit an artillery unit at the 3rd Assault Brigade who are manning a

an AS90 155mm self-propelled howitzer, 45 tons of democracy and liberty right at the front line against the Russians. And it was truly an experience to visit these guys, both because I found incredible human beings there and also just witnessing the sheer power this cannon has. It's just a

astonishing. So tell me about the guys who are operating it, Baldy. I mean, they were obviously initially trained on Soviet artillery pieces. Now they've got a bit of cutting edge Western kit. What's their attitude in terms of the difference of its capability? Yeah. So basically, just to sum up in one sentence, one of them told me, look, this is just more reliable, more comfortable, quieter, and more accurate, the best we've ever worked with.

These guys have been operating Soviet technique up until this summer when they received this self-propelled howitzer. And they said the Soviet technique is designed for muscle power. You load the charge by hand, you aim manually. It's crowded inside and generally you sweat more when you work with it and you're more

inaccurate at the end. In comparison, the AS90 is more convenient. It has an automated loading system and everything is electrically controlled. And even if the loading system breaks down, which sometimes it does, you can just charge it manually and that's it. So more

More electronics in this case doesn't mean more faulty functioning. And it was truly surprising. They told me they were actually, the war doesn't allow for weeks long trainings. These guys said we were trained for three days to operate this Western kit. Obviously, they said we had experience before with Soviet technique, but I was quite surprised to be honest.

to hear, even though they were experienced, that they only got three days to learn how to operate this AS90.

And I think they actually let you use it, or at least you were present when it was fired. Tell us about that. Well, I cannot comment on that. Obviously, they know how to keep a journalist happy. They know how to make a journalist happy. And I was invited inside the turret when they fired it towards the Russian positions. I think the guys were just as eager to shot this cannon in front of my cameras and my photographer's cameras. Well, to be honest with you, just as I was eager to see it fired,

functioning. I did not want my readers left hanging. If there is a gun on stage, it should explode in every good act. So this is what happened. They told me they did not fire, they did not have an exact target, but every night they tried to keep the Russian soldiers from popping their heads out from the trenches. And so they just fired, as they said, a goodnight kiss towards them.

I think in World War II, they used to call that harassing fire, didn't they? Forcing them to keep their heads down. Did you get any sense, by the way, I mean, one of the controversies about the recent break in intelligence and also weapons going through from the Americans to the Ukrainians is that this prevented the Ukrainian artillery from firing as much as it would have liked. Did they talk about that at all? According to my understanding, intelligence sharing did not affect this particular unit because...

even though they fire indirect fire, which means usually they don't see the target they fire at, just because of the sheer distance this kit can fire. It's explosive. It can, I think, its maximum range is 45 kilometers.

So even though that's not too far from Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, so they don't rely on US intelligence sharing. And another aspect of the US help, which is hardware, military aid, they said they are fairly well supplied by 155 millimeter artillery shells. They can fire almost as much as they want to, of course, within limits. They said on one occasion they fired 300 rounds in four days, but

But that was really the upper limit. Their infantry was under attack. And in that case, there is just no limit. And in later days, obviously, they had to hold back a little bit to replenish their stock. But good news, there is no critical shortage of ammunition shells this time, despite after a

early examples in recent years. Yeah, and that's all very good to hear. And you've also, of course, the big movement in the front lines recently has been in Kursk, Baldy. You've also been up in that direction or at least spoken to some people who were fighting in the Kursk salient. Tell us about their experience, what they told you about that. Yeah, so I've met a couple of units that were rotated out from Kursk to a little bit of refreshment, which in this case meant a

a demining training just behind the border

And to be honest, which is just giving good feeling for what might have been going on across the border was just this constant row of attack helicopters flying 30 to 50 meters above our head, trying to keep a low altitude to avoid detection by Russian raiders flying into this alien as well as fighter jets. I saw a couple MiG-29s, although I'm not a jet expert. I think they were MiG-29s.

And those people who were rotated out, they were from, they are the best of the best. I spoke with one Marine who's a sniper. He fought at the Hostomel airport during the early days of the war, just northwest of Kiev. A very young, but already a very seasoned soldier. He said, look, I've seen a lot during my campfire.

career and I don't mind fighting under tough circumstances, but what can you do against an enemy who sometimes have a tenfold advantage against you? He was describing, of course, the ratio of Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Kursk salient. Another combat medic with the military callsign SIK, he just said, look, evacuation is hard. Getting supplies into Kursk is hard.

Going to position is hard. Defending the position is hard. And evacuating the wounded is hard. He said, we try to find new ways to get into fuel, ammunition, supplies to transfer the wounded out. But he said, I hope this is... We were speaking before Suja was captured by the Russians. He said, look, I really hope it won't get any harder from this because hub can get...

harder from here. The Marine sniper said basically the road to Suja is constantly pounded by Russian FPVs. It's a Russian roulette to take it these days. And drones, Russian drones are omnipresent. And so Russian commanders are omniscience. They see everything. And this Marine sniper told me, even though their position is just 16, 17 kilometers from the border, Ukrainian Russian border,

It takes them three days to get there because they can only travel by two or three persons in one group. They have to carry all the supplies they need for the fight in their water, food, ammunition, weapons. And so it takes them at least two to three days to constantly hide and walk basically into their positions from Ukraine. And so no wonder that a couple of days later, Ukraine had to retreat, which actually

actually was no small feat, I think according to tax military strategy textbooks.

And retreating, orderly retreating under enemy fire is one of the hardest tasks any commander can ever face. And I think under the circumstances, Ukrainians pulled it off with acceptable losses. Yeah. And of course, you know, it's important for you to underline for us, actually, Baldy, having been up in that direction, the lies that were coming out of Russia were being repeated by the Americans that large numbers of Ukrainians

Ukrainian troops had been encircled and that their only hope was to surrender or die, all complete lies. And of course, they took casualties coming out. But in reality, as far as we can see, large numbers were not captured in that final battle. Absolutely not. And thank you for mentioning that. I was quite surprised to hear these kind of allegations coming, not from the Kremlin, but from Washington. And I can only hope that Trump soon changes his

the sources for his information because he keeps believing outright lies. Because I've been there, I asked these soldiers and obviously they told me, look, the situation is difficult, but we didn't know about any kind of encirclement. And recent history shows us that there was indeed no encirclement en masse

of Ukrainian troops inside Kursk. Yeah, thanks for clearing that up, Baldi. On a more general level, of course, we've had, you know, the most extraordinary events of the last few weeks. And in particular, this week, of course, what will go down now, certainly in our view, is the infamous telephone call between Putin

and President Trump. They're talking it up. They're saying a lot of good came out of it. In reality, the ceasefire, which Ukraine has already agreed to, the 30-day no-limit ceasefire, has not been accepted by the Russians. And yet there seem to be no sanctions. There seem to be no punishment of the Russians. They're talking it up and saying things are going well and we're on course for peace. What is the attitude among Ukrainians, both servicemen and civilians, towards America's role in all of this, would you say?

To be honest with you, it's not the Ukrainians that are getting tired, but the Western support. So yesterday I just spoke with a very bright, young, talented Ukrainian anchor called Olga.

She received an American education. And when the war broke out, she immediately went back to her country to help it. And she works as a medevac, a volunteer medevac at an NGO called Hospitaliers. And they are, as volunteers, still a target for the Russians. But as volunteers, not part of the military, they take injured Ukrainian soldiers out from the front line. And this NGO, Hospitaliers, relies solely on volunteers.

And they are big and famous and they do a very good job. And I heard that these days they themselves have, the volunteers have to pay for the fuel they put into their machines. The kit they received, the medical kit, they received more and more expired stuff. And so we were having a coffee yesterday and she did not seem at all tired. She did not seem at all disheartened. Most Ukrainians know that peace will come when Kyiv will be at the negotiating table.

And we can call these negotiations, they say, but let's not call them peace negotiations, because these will become peace negotiations when both warring sides are present at these tables. And Kyiv is clearly sidelined here.

So what Olga told me is that basically Ukrainians have lived through a couple of ceasefires, which Russia broke milliseconds after Vladimir Putin signed these treaties. And so why would it be different this time? Yeah. And just to add, yesterday night, I think hours after the phone call with Putin and Trump concluded, Russia fired 145 attack drones on Ukraine. Yeah.

I don't know if they hit energy infrastructure or not, but they did hit a hospital in Sumy. So I just, I don't see any kind of show of willingness from Russia's side to at least act for the time being as if they were interested in any kind of rapprochement with Ukraine. And,

And at the same time, Baldy, although a lot of America's actions or at least the American government's actions over the last couple of weeks have been pretty bewildering to us who are watching and supporting Ukraine in this war. And yet at the same time, Europe does seem to be stepping up a little bit now. So my question is, are the Ukrainians getting any kind of comfort from the knowledge that Europe is staying pretty firm?

And that, you know, at some stage it will hope to replace if indeed it ever comes to that. Any lost support from the US? My take is that when you try to fight off a full scale invasion, you don't really have time to read and analyze too much of the news. So at the end of most Ukrainians are like, look,

If at the end of the day, military hardware enters into our country, we are happy. But until that, we can't really appreciate or even process how much billions of euros were promised to us or will be given to us in the future, or European countries will invest into their economy in the upcoming five, 10 years. Of course, I'm not saying they are...

sad to hear that europe has woken up but they as the saying goes are still waiting whether it will hit the snooze button or it will actually get to work okay understood well thanks so much baldy for your update absolutely fascinating encouraging in some parts and we hope next time we we discuss with you in a few weeks time i know you're heading back to ukraine in a few days aren't you for after a little bit of a r and r seeing your son in in hungary i hope

I hope that goes really well and all the best and keep safe when you do get back to Ukraine. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for having me.

Well, that was fascinating, Roger, wasn't it? To hear Baldy talk about how good the AS-90 is. I mean, this is a bit of British kit. We knew that most NATO standard stuff's better than the Soviets, but it was fascinating to hear him talk about how relatively easy it is to operate, how accurate it is, and how much difference these bits of kit have made to the Ukrainians for the last three years in fighting off the Russians. Yeah, and it's a shot in the arm, I suppose. We're now castigating ourselves that we've...

you know, allowed ourselves to be so dependent on the, you know, the American nuclear umbrella and everything else and outsourced our military capacity. Well, you know, there's one, at least a glimmer of a good news story there that some domestically produced kit is actually pretty good. So that's a great positive. Let's hope that we can keep that up and others can do the same.

We've also heard separately that the Challenger tank has been extraordinarily effective in Kursk. I'm hoping all the Challengers got out would certainly have the Russians crowing if they thought they'd managed to knock out another one. So it sounds like they did get all of them out. And on the subject of the Kursk salient, Boldy confirms a

course, as we knew that the fighting was incredibly difficult there. But he also confirms the complete lie that's been repeated by America that large numbers of Ukrainians were either in danger of being encircled or already had been encircled, and they might as well surrender or die. Clearly, most of them got out. Yes, of course, they took casualties. But

These were, as Baldy says, the best of the best, and they are now available to be used elsewhere, which raises some tantalizing prospects, I think, doesn't it? Indeed. Just on the previous point, it's a curious illustration of the strange world we're in at the moment where the US president is effectively repeating Russian propaganda lies to the Western world. So that whole narrative of the interdependence

troops and how Trump was endeavouring to save them was, you know, thoroughly strange and thoroughly ridiculous. Chilling, isn't it? It is chilling, absolutely chilling. But as you say, I mean, it's good that, you know, that the vast majority of those troops got out. I know there was some rather horrific footage that I saw online about

You know, some, again, it was from Russian sources. So whether that can be entirely trusted or not, but illustration of a particular, I think they described it as a road of death where the fleeing troops are being attacked by drones. But I mean, that's the nature of warfare. And if, as we say, the vast majority of those troops got out, then good for them and good for Ukraine.

Yeah, I mean, Baldy makes the point, and he's, of course, right. A withdrawal when the enemy's closing in is one of the hardest things to accomplish. You often, you know, it often turns into a disaster, as we've seen in multiple conflicts in our lifetime, Roger, I think particularly of the retreat from Kuwait, where a whole column of Iraqi vehicles and tanks was absolutely destroyed by the American firepower. That doesn't seem to have happened here, which is great. And as Baldy says, it will be considered, you know, when we look

back one of the great achievements of the Ukraine war in them saving some of their best troops. But anyway, let's move on. We'll take a break there. Do join us in a moment for listeners questions.

This episode is brought to you by LifeLock. It's tax season, and we're all a bit tired of numbers. But here's one you need to hear. $16.5 billion. That's how much the IRS flagged for possible identity fraud last year. Now here's a good number. $100 million. That's how many data points LifeLock monitors every second. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it. Guaranteed. Save up to 40% your first year at LifeLock.com slash podcast. Terms apply.

This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with the Name Your Price tool from Progressive, you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states.

I'm David Orlishoga, historian and broadcaster. And I'm Sarah Churchwell, author, journalist, and academic. And together, we are hosts of Goalhanger's latest podcast, Jailbreakers.

Journey Through Time. We're going to be looking at hidden social histories behind famous chapters from the past. Asking what it was like to have lived through prohibition or to have been there on the ground during the Great Fire of London. We'll be uncovering all of that. And we'll have characters and stories that have been totally forgotten but shouldn't have been. This week, we're looking at a terror attack that shocked New York.

that cost American lives, caused millions of dollars of damage to buildings across Manhattan, that led to the establishment of new security agencies, and that helped push the United States towards war. But it's not 9-11. This is the 9-11.

is the Black Tom explosion of 1916, the story of a massive sabotage campaign as Germany made a desperate effort to keep America from helping the Allies during the First World War. And the cast of characters for this story involves Playboy diplomats, there's a stranded sailor, an opera singer who's managing a brothel in New York, and there's a hapless spy who leaves secret documents on a train.

So join us on Journey Through Time and hear a clip from the Black Tom story at the end of this episode. ♪

Welcome back. Well, we got a couple of responses to Patrick's interview with Katerina Ratyshna, which you haven't listened to. We put that out as a separate podcast a few days ago. And if you haven't listened to that, please do give it a go because it's pretty remarkable, her story and what she's been. And we've had a couple of responses. The first from Ian saying, truly inspiring. Thank you. And Stephanie asks,

I really love the episode from Sunday with Katerina. She is so inspiring and giving the horrors of everything happening in the world right now helps me to feel hopeful that more of us will be as brave as her given an invasion of Europe. These types of interviews are so important for bolstering hope and courage.

especially for me as a woman. It was a wonderful interview. And we should just add to listeners that actually that Patrick is taking a little bit of enforced leave. We hope to have him back in the not too distant future. But Roger, I hope you'll agree as a more than adequate replacement. So we had a message from Emi Akrupic, who had been a correspondent to the podcast before. And rather tragically, he says that his block of flats in Pokrovsk was bombed last week.

Any hope of going back there, he says, is gone forever. The block, he says, could be repaired depending on civil engineering, but usually they get marked to be knocked down. Another follow-up email a few days later, he gave clarification. He said, my block of flats in Pokrovsk got bombed again, but it looks like the block is ruined, he says, and it will now have to be demolished. So,

Very sad for him. We actually have a listener here who has been very much at the sharp end of this war. And he says at the end, you can hear the constant shelling in the distance. So we wish him well in every possible way. Good luck to you, Amir.

Yeah, but one thing to add to this story, of course, it's a tragedy that Emir's home has been destroyed. Emir is not actually in Pokrovsk. He was evacuated out with his family a while ago. But what is remarkable, isn't it, Roger, that Pokrovsk, which was basically flagged up for almost certain capture by the Russians at

the beginning of last year that's 2024 is still in ukrainian hands and they seem to be advancing in the area around it i mean not we're not talking about huge gains but i noticed when i when i when i'm checking up on the movement of the battlefield which of course has been relatively small in door nets while the russians have concentrated on clearing the coast salient pakrat still hasn't been captured and you know the kind of doomsayers we're mentioning a long time ago that

this was going to happen. So again, this is going to be seen, you know, we'll have to see what happens with the rest of the war, but this really will be seeing one of the great Stalingrad moments of this conflict, I feel. Indeed.

Okay, we've got one here from Ryan Shakespeare. And this is about Europe's position on the war, which of course, we've already referred to today. I have a question. To me, it looks like Europe is almost pushing Putin into a position where he can't accept a ceasefire deal because they want to put troops on the ground once it is signed. That's European troops. That obviously suits Putin as he doesn't want the deal anyway. But if he doesn't agree to the ceasefire deal, doesn't that

put Donald Trump in a tricky position. He said he'd solve the war in 24 hours and he came down really hard on Zelensky, which will be interesting to see if he does the same with Putin when he doesn't agree to the ceasefire deal. Well, I think we can already see his strategy in relation to Putin, can't we, Roger? And we've already referred to it on the podcast today.

Putin's not going to agree to much. He's going to dig his toes in. He's going to, you know, drag this out as long as he can, try and win more terrain or as much terrain as he can. And what is Trump going to do despite all the threats in the past? Pretty much nothing as far as we can see. I mean, what's your feeling? Do you think there's a possibility, which I suggested a while ago, but it

I'm really much less confident now that Trump will eventually lose patience and turn on Putin? You'd certainly hope so. And I think that would be the sort of the rational, you know, last hope of all of this would be that, you know, Trump would,

Finally, you know, the scales would fall from his eyes and he'll see Putin for what he is. And he will put all of that, you know, frenetic energy that he obviously has into, in a sense, doing the right thing. You know, he'll find his moral backbone. He'll find his values again and do the right thing. Now, frankly, as we know, I'm never one to be accused of being optimistic.

Frankly, I can't really see that happening. Putin is, I think he's doing very well at playing Trump. I think he gets Trump in that sort of strange way that Trump thinks he gets Putin. You know, it's the sort of the big men together club, if you like. It's the sort of, you know, the big players against the rest of the world. And I think Trump is, you know, in a sense more comfortable with that world than a value-led world.

So in a sense, I can't see those scales falling from his eyes anytime soon. And there's always going to be, you know, lesser partners like the EU or Zelensky in Ukraine, who can be thrown under the bus, who can be accused of, you know, sundry offences and of derailing supposed peace talks.

long before he's actually going to sort of turn on his fellow strongman Putin. So I'm rather dubious that there's much sort of rationality here at all in that sense. The sort of subtext of Ryan's question, which is where Europe goes from this, I mean, I think there's an interesting prospect if Europe can get its act together. As I said before, we had positive signs with Germany dropping its debt break this week.

European leaders and so on are saying all the right things. Of course, as we know, there's a big gulf between words and actions. But there's a possibility here of Europe

stepping up as a sort of alternative liberal order, if you like. If America is no longer going to stand up for the liberal order, then Europe could stand up and do that. And to echo Donald Tusk's comments of the other day, given the population of Europe, I forget the figures that he used, but given the population of Europe and its sort of economic potential, this must be possible.

in the event that the US under Trump can't or won't stand up for those principles anymore. So, you know, that is a tantalizing prospect. It would be a very positive prospect, but it is at the moment only a prospect. You know, there's an awful lot that has to happen before that becomes reality. Yeah, and I think that is the direction in which we're going. I mean, I said about six months ago, Trump was not going to withdraw from NATO. Well, needless to say, I don't feel...

confident in that statement any longer. I think America might well do, which leaves us with the possibility of setting up a new treaty organization centered around Europe, but also including potentially other countries like Canada, for example. Now, we've had a number of emails. We'll read out a couple of very furious Canadians. And this, of course, is the separate issue over the 51st state. But it's all intermingled. And it is clear to me that some Canadians are now going to be looking to Europe

for the future. And this will be trade as well. You know, the damage done to the relationship between the Canadians and the America, the USA, in a relatively short time by Trump is almost incalculable. It's extraordinary. So let's move on. Quite a moving message from Father Bodan Ladio in Hamilton, Ontario. I'm an Eastern Orthodox priest of Ukrainian heritage from Hamilton, Ontario in Canada, and cannot praise you enough for the fine job you consistently do.

in presenting and contextualizing this horrific conflict. This past Friday, Patrick referred to the perverse spirituality of the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, and this is a dimension of the conflict which is especially painful to me as an Orthodox priest. The religious dimension of this conflict does not get much airplay, and perhaps this is something when the news cycle slows down enough to permit it, which might be explored in some detail. The avid support of the Russian Orthodox Church for this war and its punishment of clergy

who dare to question the church's stance, supports the idea stated openly by the patriarch of the

that this is a holy war, the rhetoric surrounding which truly sounds like it's straight out of the Middle Ages. I mean, it's extraordinary, isn't it? All of this. And Bodan goes on to say, I want to thank Patrick for his clarification regarding the role and heroism of the Canadian military in World War II. I was especially edified by his mention of John Weir Foote, the chaplain who received the Victoria Cross. I'm proud to say that the armory where our local reserve units are stationed here in Hamilton is named after him.

And that my son, Reverend Captain Yuri Ladeo, is a chaplain of the Foot Armory. May God bless you and your work. And that's the first time we've actually had a priest blessing the podcast, Roger. This is a red letter day for us. Duly honoured and touched. That's a lovely message. Thank you for that. Very much both of them.

There were a series of further messages from Canadian listeners referencing the terminology used in one of our earlier podcasts, talking about dropping the gloves and various hockey metaphors that have been used in the podcast. So there's a number of those messages that are riffing off that. One I thought was particularly interesting, Boyd Davis from Kingston, Ontario,

Yeah, he makes the point that in this sort of current, you know, rather belligerent rhetoric that Trump is deploying over Canada, he says that Canadians are themselves quite sort of perplexed that Britain is not stepping up, at least verbally, in its support for Canada. He says that Keir Starmer and David Lammy have had many chances to whistle down Trump's aggression towards Canada.

but they have just been playing defence and don't want to poke the bear. And I think there's definitely something in that. I think the Europeans generally, and Britain in particular, are sort of in something of a bind over Trump. They obviously want to keep Trump on side, so they don't want to burn bridges, because you can see from his previous run-ins with other leaders, not least Zelensky in the Oval Office,

that he doesn't really brook contradiction and he doesn't sort of take criticism, however well-meaning or well-informed it is. He doesn't take that well. So they want, obviously, to keep him on side.

But at the same time, they do collectively need to realize, and this is, again, I suppose the wider theme we've been talking about today, they need to realize that the US under Trump is not what it was. So in a sense, it's understandable that there's a degree of sort of tiptoeing around and not necessarily wanting to be too bold in pushing back against Trump. But

But to me, it just seems that perhaps the time for a degree of that boldness and Europe actually, as I said before, sort of standing up for the values that it believes in. I think this may be the time for that boldness has come and tiptoeing around Trump doesn't actually achieve anything either.

Yeah, well said. I think we'll get to that point. They've been cautious. You're absolutely right. But it does make the Canadians feel pretty isolated. And the level of their anger is expressed by a number of our listeners, including Matt, who writes, the level of Canadian patriotism

I'm seeing now is remarkable. I've long been pretty patriotic myself and I'm reveling in it. Our national stereotype might be one of politeness, but with regards to America, that seems to be changing significantly and rightly so. I cannot stress enough, writes Matt, how angry and

utterly betraying many Canucks feel in the face of the current White House administration's aggression, is equivalent to a long-standing, peaceful, mutually beneficial marriage turning into an outright violent, abusive relationship, seemingly overnight. Trump is taking the most successful economic partnership in history and chucking it into the fire while ratcheting up the enthusiasm with which he licks Putin's, I'll say, boots, to be polite. But I think we know what he's referring to. As our now previous prime minister put it,

make that make sense. And, you know, this is just one of many, as we've said, and it's extraordinary, isn't it? On the other hand, we've got some, you know, quite interesting insight into Trump, going back to your point, Roger, from Austin in Miami, who writes, as you point out, Trump has limited means to escalate pressure on Russia from where it is already, but I find it doubtful he would ever try. He wants the war over and the US aid ended. And beyond that, he doesn't care much

By ending aid, he has leverage over Ukraine, but not much over Putin. He's not going to escalate against Putin, and he doesn't care about Ukrainian independence. And here's the interesting bit. Consider, says Austin, that in right-wing circles, memes, etc., Putin has for years been portrayed as the virtuous, mainly one standing up for Christian values. Consider the depth of support Putin seems to have from close advisors and aspiring oligarchs like Musk,

Sachs and J.D. Vance. They consider the most important factor of all that Trump likes Putin and doesn't like Zelensky. I think analysing foreign policy beyond that is just crediting Trump with way too much strategy. And we've also got a number of people in America saying, you know, don't forget there are plenty of people in America who think very differently. Very nice one from someone in Ohio who

who writes, this American is heart sick over the current administration's abandonment of Ukraine. What was once the arsenal of democracy is now the purveyor of misinformation that prefers the company of tyrants. I work as a newspaper paginator. I would like you and all listeners to know that an entire group of newspapers in Ohio, Indiana and Texas have been placing a support Ukraine logo on their front pages.

three years now. I've personally seen and placed photos of local demonstrations in support of Ukraine in Ohio. And for what it's worth, I take every opportunity to use wire stories about Ukraine wherever possible. And other people write in and say, you know, they're putting up Ukraine flags in their backyards where they used to put the stars and stripes. And they're pretty ashamed of the stars and stripes at the moment. Yeah, that line that you just read is pretty astonishing. Our correspondent there says,

What once was the arsenal of democracy is now the purveyor of misinformation. That's an astonishing line. Shocking, isn't it? That's shocking. Yeah, indeed.

We've got a very interesting question from Therese in Norway. Again, Therese has contacted us on a number of occasions. So thank you for coming back again on this. And Therese writes, what is the difference between Ukraine and Taiwan? Put in a different way, what is the difference between fear of Russia and fear of China? And the background to her question is we keep hearing that the U.S. is preparing for a war with China over Taiwan.

And it can sound like it's an inevitability. This is being used as an argument for not supporting Ukraine militarily, since the US will need the weapons that could go to Ukraine in the fight against China. China, like Russia, is a nuclear power, says Therese. Why isn't there then screaming of World War III of China and the US?

stroke the West, I don't think it will be the West actually, but the way the US has behaved, stroke the US come to direct armed conflict in the same way that it is with Russia in the Ukraine war. In recent history, to paraphrase Biden, we have to slow walk all military aid to Ukraine as much as possible and impose strict restrictions on the use of Western weapons against Russia, or else we will all perish in a nuclear Armageddon launched by Russia. And in his next breath,

That's Biden said China. Yes, of course, we will protect Taiwan with all our military might. So she's pointing out the obvious contradiction here, Roger. And do you feel she's got a point?

Yeah, I do. I do. And I mean, I think it's reasonably easily explicable. I don't know how you feel, Saul, but I certainly agree with the premise behind it. I mean, China is really compared to Putin's Russia. I mean, China is potentially the greater threat, you know, larger population, bigger economy by probably by an order of magnitude.

And with, you know, not dissimilar, you know, geostrategic aims and goals and expansionist aims and goals. So, you know, I completely see the comparison. But I think the difference, you know, the fundamental difference is, of course, that there has been no invasion yet.

of Taiwan. So, you know, in a sense, it makes sense for Western politicians and, you know, go back to, I mean, seriously, who would have thought that we'd be sentimental about Joe Biden already this soon, barely months after he'd left the stage. But yeah, I mean, it makes sense that there would be this sort of, you know, talking tough

on Taiwan, and yet at the same time, a need to sort of carry on business as usual to a large extent, not least because of the, you know, the disruption that would be involved if you did actually start putting yourself on a, you know, war footing against China. So I completely get that contradiction where that comes from. But, you know, I completely agree with the premise of the question that, you know, China is a bigger threat. And it's the key thing is that it hasn't really done anything yet in that sense.

It's always struck me that China is much wiser than Russia in the sense that it'll do everything it can to get what it wants without going to war. As any sensible power would, Sun Tzu's great line, the best war is the war you don't actually

fight, you achieve your aims without fighting. And that is what the Chinese, and let's face it, they're great kind of scholars and followers of Sun Tzu. That seems to be their modus operandi. When they do get into a hot war, it tends to be a border war. It tends to be the threat to them, which came, of course, with the Korean War, the threat to their border I'm talking about. And of course, you know, border wars with the Indians. But that aside, you know, is it obvious that the Chinese show aggression? It isn't obvious to me.

Yeah, I agree. I mean, it's an interesting point. You say that China is generally wiser in that sense. And I would agree with that. But there's a possibility that it's going to become less wise as the 21st century wears on. You know, to some extent, it's quite easy to say that, you know, we call the 20th century the American century. And it's, you know, a glib comment, I suppose, or commonplace to sort of describe the 21st century as being the Chinese century. It certainly looks that way in the first quarter of it.

But then China, you know, because of its own demographic situation and so on, and, you know, it's also facing some considerable difficulties at the moment, which could then make its leadership by extension, you know, as you said, less wise and a bit more reckless going forward. So,

it's still very possible that all of these latent conflicts could become less latent in the future. And all that wisdom of following Sun Tzu will at some point go out the window. We shall see. Okay, that's what we have time for. Do join us next Wednesday for another episode of Battleground 45 and also on Friday for the latest updates from Ukraine. Goodbye. Goodbye. Here's that clip we mentioned earlier on.

And gradually what you see in this period is mounting concern over what became called hyphenate Americans, this idea that foreign immigrant communities had divided allegiances. And so there are increasing demands for effectively loyalty tests. And Wilson gives a very famous speech in which he uses a famous phrase, and that's a phrase that you have spent a long time studying, Sarah. And that is to

to ask whether these Americans who have loyalties to other nations will, when it comes down to it, whether they will put...

America first. And that's the phrase, right? America first. It is a phrase that was first popularized in this context in 1915, a year before Black Tom, in a speech that Wilson gave addressing these mounting concerns about hyphenate Americans, about whether they were real Americans or not. And the way that Wilson put it was he said he demanded that immigrant communities stand up

and state explicitly whether, he said, is it America first or is it not? And at that point, America first became an incredibly popular phrase. It basically dominates American political discourse for the next decade. Then it kind of subsided, and then it has a resurgence around World War II when it was used to talk about whether America should enter the Second World War. And then it went into abeyance for a long time until it made a dramatic reappearance in the 21st century, which listeners will be familiar with.

If you want to hear the full episode, listen to Journey Through Time wherever you get your podcasts.