The Trump administration's potential changes to Medicaid could severely impact California's Medi-Cal program, which serves 14 million low-income residents. The federal government currently funds about 75% of Medi-Cal, and any reduction in federal support would limit California's ability to provide healthcare to vulnerable populations, including children, elders, and people with disabilities. Proposed GOP reforms, such as converting Medicaid into a block grant system, would reduce funding and flexibility, potentially leading to cuts in services.
California's expansion of Medi-Cal to undocumented immigrants is significant because it addresses both public health and economic concerns. Undocumented immigrants contribute to the tax base and often rely on emergency care, which is more costly than preventative care. By providing Medi-Cal coverage, the state reduces overall healthcare costs and ensures better health outcomes. Additionally, it aligns with California's values of compassion and inclusivity, recognizing the essential role immigrants play in the state's economy.
The Trump administration could limit abortion access in California by restricting federal funding for organizations like Planned Parenthood, which provides the majority of family care services in the state. While California has enshrined abortion rights in its constitution and passed numerous laws to protect access, federal funding cuts could still undermine the state's ability to provide comprehensive reproductive healthcare. The administration's stance on abortion, as outlined in Project 2025, poses a significant threat to these services.
CalAIM is a $12 billion initiative aimed at transforming Medi-Cal to address the social determinants of health, such as homelessness, food insecurity, and mental health. It includes innovative programs like providing medically supportive meals and housing assistance. However, CalAIM relies on federal waivers, which are set to expire in 2025-2026. Under the Trump administration, the likelihood of renewing these waivers is low, jeopardizing the program's future and the health outcomes of millions of Californians.
Social determinants of health are factors like housing, nutrition, and transportation that influence health outcomes. California uses Medi-Cal to address these issues through programs like CalAIM, which provides housing assistance, medically supportive meals, and asthma-related home improvements. By focusing on prevention and addressing root causes of health disparities, the state aims to reduce healthcare costs and improve overall well-being. However, these efforts depend on federal waivers, which are at risk under the Trump administration.
The Trump administration's potential cuts to Medicaid and other health programs could exacerbate poor maternal health outcomes for Black women in California. The state has implemented measures to address disparities, such as requiring hospitals to review negative incidents and increasing culturally concordant care. However, federal funding reductions could undermine these efforts, making it harder to provide adequate care and support for Black mothers, who already face higher rates of maternal morbidity and mortality.
California has used Medi-Cal to fund innovative programs addressing homelessness, such as rental assistance and housing support. These initiatives are part of the CalAIM program, which relies on federal waivers. Under the Trump administration, the renewal of these waivers is unlikely, threatening the state's ability to continue these efforts. This could lead to increased homelessness and worse health outcomes for vulnerable populations.
The Trump administration has expressed opposition to gender-affirming care and transgender healthcare, which could lead to federal funding cuts for related programs. California has been a leader in providing inclusive healthcare for the transgender community, but federal policies could undermine these efforts. The administration's focus on cultural wars rather than evidence-based healthcare poses a significant threat to the state's ability to support transgender residents.
California's efforts to implement a single-payer healthcare system would require federal waivers for Medicare and Medi-Cal funding, as well as a workaround for employer-sponsored insurance under ERISA. The Trump administration is unlikely to support these waivers, making single-payer healthcare unfeasible during its tenure. This limits California's ability to achieve universal coverage and equitable access to healthcare.
The Trump administration's potential push to privatize veterans' healthcare could lead to cuts in benefits and services for veterans in California. Programs like Medi-Cal and Veterans Administration benefits, which many veterans rely on, could be at risk. While the veteran community has been vocal about preserving and expanding benefits, the administration's policies may still result in reduced access to care for this population.
California could lose billions of dollars in health funding if the Trump administration follows through on GOP plans to overhaul Medicaid, which provides healthcare for low-income people. Trump policies could also have major implications for Covered California, the state’s health insurance marketplace, and for health care programs addressing homelessness and reproductive health . We’ll talk with state assembly health committee chair Mia Bonta and others about what services are most vulnerable, and how California officials are preparing.
Guests:
**Mia Bonta, **state assemblymember representing the 18th assembly district in the East Bay and chair of the assembly health committee
**Angela Hart, **senior correspondent covering health care politics and policy in California and the West, KFF Health News
**Mark Peterson, **professor of public policy, political science, health policy and management, and law, UCLA; senior fellow at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research