Will Germany Turn to the Far Right?
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From KQED in San Francisco, I'm Mina Kim. Coming up on Forum, Germany holds elections this weekend, and political watchers there are expecting its nativist Alternative for Germany Party, or AFD, to make gains, despite long being a political pariah. The pro-Putin, anti-immigrant AFD has neo-Nazi ties. It has also earned the praise of Elon Musk and a meeting with Vice President J.D. Vance, shocking Germany's governing party.

We take a closer look at the country's far-right resurgence and what it means for the U.S. and Europe. Join us. Welcome to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. The first big European election since President Trump took office is happening Sunday, when Germans go to the polls to elect a new parliament. Germany, the EU's most populous nation, is also its biggest economic contributor and a major weapon supplier to Ukraine.

But a pro-Putin, anti-immigrant, anti-green energy party with links to neo-Nazis called Alternative for Germany, or AFD, has been making gains among voters. Helped along, it appears, by Elon Musk, who has amplified AFD on X, and Vice President Vance, who in Munich last weekend met with AFD's leader.

This hour, we look at why and at the stakes for Europe and Ukraine in Germany's election. Joining me, Jen Kirby, independent national security reporter. Jen, thanks so much for being with us. Thanks for having me. Sophia Besch is senior fellow of the Europe program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Sophia, really glad to have you too. Great to be with you. So Jen, let me just start. This election Sunday is a snap election. So what brought it on? Why is Germany having elections now?

Well, so Germany, the governing coalition, which was led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats, was in a three-way coalition with the Greens and the FDP, who are very anti-tax, raising taxes really for a very sort of what we would maybe think of as fiscally conservative in the U.S.,

And there were a lot of tensions among this coalition because they all were very different, diverse ideological partners. And as the government got increasingly unpopular with the public frustrated about inflation and the cost of living,

um, energy policies, uh, from the coalition. And of course these questions about how Germany would finance, um, sort of its defense spending, um, particularly around the war in Ukraine. So the coalition itself was under a lot of strain and eventually, um,

at the end of last year, it really became untenable. And so essentially, it was very clear that Germany would have to go to snap elections. They were already planning to have elections in 2025, just later in the fall. But ultimately, they had to call them in February at a very auspicious time with the new US administration coming right in as well. And Sophia, could you just put in context for us just how significant these elections are?

Yeah, they're fairly significant. I mean, it is interesting that we call them snap elections, but it's still Germany, so it takes us a while to organize them. But they are coming at a time that is incredibly significant for Germany. I mean, this coalition, center-left coalition, together with the fiscal conservatives, as

Their big legacy is the Zeitenwende idea, right? Germany trying to adapt to the changes brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Germany having to cut off Russian oil and gas as a response to that. And now the election of President Donald Trump, which really calls into question the bond between Washington and Berlin. Berlin thinks of itself as incredibly transatlanticist and has struggled a lot under the last

Trump administration. So the challenges are momentous and it is also happening at a time where, and I'm guessing this is what we want to talk about more in this conversation, the AFD, this far-right party, is polling steadily at 20 to 22 percent one week before the election and that is double the results of the last elections in 2021. They're polling higher in all states than in their 2021 results and have become a real force of German politics.

Some think that, you know, coming back to this idea of the significance of this election, this is sort of the last chance for German centrist parties to prove that they can deliver for the German electorate if they don't want the next elections to be won by the AFD. Wow. So that's leading me to a lot of questions. So first of all, it isn't likely that the AFD would win, right, or that their leader would become the chancellor. Who is polling ahead, Jen?

So right now, the Christian Democratic Union, which is led by Friedrich Merz, is leading the polls. This is Angela Merkel's party, but it is not Angela Merkel's party in the sense that it has changed quite a bit since she was chancellor. But they are the conservatives, what we'd call maybe the center-right, and they are leading, and they are most likely going to win unless there is an earthquake on Sunday. So because they have what...

But essentially, all the mainstream parties in Germany have agreed to this firewall, which essentially says they will not go into a formal coalition with the AfD. And so it is likely that one of the other parties, most likely right now, the Social Democrats, so Olaf Scholz's party, will then join a coalition with Germany.

The CDU. It's very complicated, but basically they'll need another coalition partner and they will go around the AFD even if it comes in second. And of course, it still is a very, but it's still a big deal because the AFD will, if the polls prove true, will double its presence in the Bundestag, which means they will be able to frustrate

um, debate and discussion in the Bundestag. So they will influence and have an influence in the future parliament, whether or not they're in a formal coalition. And I think it's also been clear during this election cycle that the firewall has been tested, um,

A few weeks ago, Friedrich Merz passed a, it was non-binding, but a resolution on his immigration plan. And in order to do that, he needed support or he had to get support from, well, the AFD backed him in the vote. And so it was sort of seen as a real kind of blow to the firewall, so to speak. He eventually kind of backtracked and apologized and reaffirmed the firewall policy.

for the formal coalition. And it sparked some mass protests around Germany. But it is clear that the AfD, whatever the results, is going to put pressure on the next governing coalition. Yeah. So Sofia, the AfD is...

Polling at about 20% among voters, that's actually second place. But as Jed is describing, there is this sort of firewall where the mainstream parties have said that they would not build coalition or work with them if they were in the government. But tell me why even...

You know, Friedrich Merz felt tempted to try to put something forward that would require AFD support and why 20% of the electorate seems to be drawn to this particular far right party. What is their platform and what are some of the things that you think they are saying that's resonating with this 20% of the population?

Yes. I mean, maybe in order to do that, I'm just going to say a couple of sentences about who this party really is, because I think there's a temptation. We look at Europe and we see far right parties rising everywhere in Europe. You know, you might think of France's Marine Le Pen or the UK's Nigel Farage.

What is so remarkable about the AFD is a lot of these other parties have detoxified in a way, right? Abandoned some of their anti-Semitic baggage, have become more broadly appealing. The AFD has not done that. They have had no problem embracing ethno-nationalist, anti-Semitic, xenophobic, pro-Russian, really fairly radical policy stances.

Which is in a way surprising. It started out as an outfit created by economics professors who were horrified by the Eurozone bailout. And since then has shifted much more to the right, morphing really into an anti-migration party after the former conservative chancellor Merkel's decision to take in a large wave of refugees in 2015. Right. And...

Despite their increasing radicalism, they're under surveillance by the German domestic intelligence service. They've established themselves as a fixture of the German system. So how are they having impact? Really, their main policy platform right now is on migration. They're calling for Germany to close its borders.

They are advocating what they call remigration, which is a term that has become popular in the U.S. as well. A fairly horrible euphemism for deportating anyone with a foreign passport who they don't like. But, you know, they have effectively been successful in making immigration the hot button issue for this election, which, you know, let me just recall, it is...

That is incredible at a time when there's a war happening on Germany's doorstep and Germany's main partner in the US is sort of wobbling in its commitment to the Transatlantic Alliance. Still, this election has become mostly about immigration.

There have been already some concessions by the other parties. You know, we've had law and order policies, knife bans. We've had policies to cut benefits for people slated for immigration, expand border controls on all of Germany's land borders, which is extreme.

extraordinary because Germany is part of the Schengen system of visa-free travel in Europe. So the mainstream parties, the democratic parties in Germany are really feeling the pressure. And I think this is what led Merz to question the firewall in this instance that Jen Kirby mentioned. He has had a lot of pushback against that. There have been major demonstrations, people taking to the street.

But, you know, this idea of the firewall, the really stated commitment never to go into government with this party has been questioned at a federal level and certainly at a regional level where the party has made major gains in regional elections as well. And also by even some U.S. officials. And we can get into that after the break. But first, I just want to ask you a couple of questions.

Quick questions. One is that it sounds like in stoking their anti-migration fervor, anti-immigrant fervor, the AFD has made statements very similar to statements that like Hitler would make that were very much like banned and outlawed in Germany. Right.

You also mentioned that there was huge backlash when Merz tried to do a vote that would create some level of coordination with AFD potentially. So why are there huge protests? Can you just talk about Germany's sort of remembrance culture and why there is such strong feeling against engaging with the AFD among the German public? Sophia.

Sure. I mean, I'm glad that you brought up this idea of remembrance culture. There is a really strong commitment in the German society, civil society, government, all institutions that's resulted from Germany's role in the Second World War and the crimes committed by Germany in the Second World War to remember what happened and prevent it from ever happening again. Never again is a huge motto of the German people.

people really. And so this remembrance culture has been what has driven people to the streets, what makes people so very, very skeptical of the AFD. And you can see the AFD explicitly going up against that. They have called for Germany to get over its guilt.

its historic guilt and Elon Musk who has spoken at an AFD party convention has said the same thing, you know, has said that Germany is obsessive in its past guilt and needs to move on from that.

Something really interesting in this context that we're seeing is that a large part of the AFD prospective voter base right now is younger voters who maybe don't have the same feeling of historical responsibility as the older voters do. I see. We're talking about the upcoming parliamentary elections in Germany and why a far-right party, the AFD, seems poised to make gains. More after the break. I'm Mina Kim.

Welcome back to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. The AFD, Germany's far-right, nativist party with neo-Nazi links, has long been a political pariah, but it's making gains among voters.

And we're learning why with Sophia Besch, Senior Fellow of the Europe Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and with Jen Kirby, international domestic security reporter, and also with you, our listeners. What are your questions about Germany's elections, the AFD, and the rise of the far right? Do you have ties to Germany? What do you think is driving the political shifts there? And what are your reactions to the AFD's rise? What questions do you have about

America's involvement. The email address is forum at kqed.org. Find us on our social channels, Blue Sky, Facebook, Instagram, threads at KQED Forum. Call us at 866-733-6786, 866-733-6786. I want to turn to why Elon Musk and J.D. Vance seem to have gotten themselves involved in Germany's

And at the Munich conference last weekend, Vice President J.D. Vance basically said that Germany should basically engage with the far right party, the AFD. Let's hear a cut of that. The organizers of this very conference.

have banned lawmakers representing populist parties on both the left and the right from participating in these conversations. Now again, we don't have to agree with everything or anything that people say. But when people represent, when political leaders represent an important constituency, it is incumbent upon us to at least participate in dialogue with them. So, Jen Kirby, you were at that speech.

Talk about what Vance said. You were in Munich. How did that go down? I would say it was fairly shocking for everyone at the conference, especially because just sort of given the background, which is a lot of anxiety across Europe about, you know, U.S. negotiations with Russia around Ukraine and Europe really wanting answers after a somewhat, you know,

chaotic messaging from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and also Trump's 90-minute or so call with Putin, although that's all old news at this point. But European leaders are really looking for answers from Vance, and instead they got a scolding about their own democratic institutions, which

As one ambassador told me, seems a bit rich right now, given what is happening and unfolding in the United States, to put it lightly. But essentially, you know, what Vance was doing was kind of

essentially saying pretty clearly that at least he does. And I think parts of the administration who align with him, I don't necessarily know Trump himself, but do not see Europe and Germany included in that as ideological partners. They are seeing a split. And, you know, Vance's definition of democracy may be different from how Europe sees it. And I think

you know, speaking to people who are at the speech and sort of getting the reactions. Many people told me they thought it was just instinctual, that this is sort of where J.D. Vance's and Elon Musk's

sort of ideological beliefs rely. They don't like the European project. And the question is, are they intent on destroying it and empowering parties like the AFD and other right-wing populist leaders, like, for example, Viktor Orban in Hungary, who are skeptical or a challenge to the European project? And I think it's a little bit...

too soon to say exactly where this will go. But it is very clear that Vance and Musk do not see sort of what Europe is trying to build, or at least many of the, you know, democratic mainstream political leaders in Europe. And this is causing a real, this is a part of the broader rift, I think, that we're seeing widening and widening this week in transatlantic relations.

Yeah. So, Sophia, why do you think Vance is sort of aligning with the AFD with regard to at least trying to sort of legitimize them by saying, yes, you should build coalition and I will in fact meet with them and not with any other German leader on my trip to Munich, did not meet with Chancellor Scholz, did not meet with Merz as far as I understand it?

Yeah, so there are a couple of different theories that I think hold some water and we'll have to see as this develops. But one, I mean, it's very clear that there are some shared values between sort of the MAGA movement here in the US, the AFD and other far right parties in Europe.

nativist, anti-immigration, anti-climate activism, domestic ideologies and cultural values that align. Second, I think that there is a proclivity among particularly Elon Musk and other tech billionaires in the MAGA movement, but perhaps also bands to favor disruptors.

And they might think that the AFD, like Miele in Argentina, is a disrupting force to the German European political process that they think is stale and outdated. That's sort of my most charitable interpretation. I think they might, if that is the case...

You know, they might want to look a bit deeper into some of the policy positions espoused by the AFD, traditionally very anti-American, very pro-Russian. You know, that might become a problem further down the line. Or it might not, because I think what I'm really interested in is not on a values level, but on a shared interest level.

the shared interest in disrupting and dismantling EU regulations that interfere with US national interests and business interests, whether that be climate regulations, tax

tech regulations, defense industrial regulations that make Europeans buy more European arms rather than American arms. I think there are a few things that the EU is doing that people in America don't like and people in these parties in Europe don't like.

And these Europeans, they don't like it because they feel a strong sense of sovereignty. They think that the EU is interfering in their national sovereignty. And so they might become vessels in a way for American interests and vote against or pressure them.

their their parties and countries to vote against these regulations in Brussels. I think there's a real shared enemy here in the EU that, you know, is sort of the ultimate elite, unelected elite. And there might be a shared interest here in dismantling the European project. Yeah. Arthur writes, what's behind Elon's support of AFD? Is there some sort of advantage there?

that he would gain from the party becoming more influential in German politics. And I did read a piece in The Atlantic by Anne Applebaum where she quotes Robert Habeck, the German vice chancellor and leader of the country's Green Party, essentially saying,

That Musk is deliberately strengthening those who are weakening Europe and that he believes it's because a weak Europe is in the interest of those for whom regulation is an inappropriate limitation of their power. And of course, Europe regulates entities like Musk's, Musk's many entities, including his social media entities and other powerful companies in the U.S. far more than the U.S. does.

The other thing that I just want to get to with Arthur's question about what's behind Elon support, Jen, could you just lay out some of the things that Musk has done to try to prop up the AFD?

Yeah, it is very interesting. I mean, I think probably the most notable one has been his use of the platform X or formerly known as Twitter to at least publicly give Alex Vidal, who is the leader of the AFD in Germany, to basically give her unfettered comments.

an unfettered platform for her to, you know, talk about her views and not have any fact checking and have Musk feed them and just sort of, it was a very, you know, of course, I don't know how many people tuned in. It's not exactly like Twitter is a huge platform, but it's very clear that Musk is using his control of a means of communication to try to advance the

AFD in Germany as well as, um, other far right elements across Europe. You know, he has been a bit of a disruptor across the continent this, um, this year, um, in Germany, but also in the UK as well. Um, but I think also he appeared at their, their conference, you know, as, uh, Sophia mentioned before, kind of, uh,

cheering on the party and also talking about, you know, Germany shouldn't feel guilty for its past. And I'm paraphrasing, but he is definitely seen as wanting to elevate them, which is also interesting because I believe that some of the local AFD chapters have opposed some of his Tesla factories in Germany. So there may be some interesting tensions there, but those may have been pushed aside. But it just seems very clear again that with

with Musk at least having control of one sort of communication or social media platform, he is advancing their views, which seem to increasingly align with his very radical extremist and nativist views that he's posting. Yes. And Germany's leaders have essentially framed Elon Musk as an election meddler, right, Sophia? Yeah.

Yeah, that's right. We've had statements from German politicians at the Munich Security Conference, varying degrees of sternness.

asking the vice president not to meddle in German election processes. And we've also had some efforts by German free speech watchdogs and EU free speech watchdogs to see whether Elon Musk's support and multiplication of the AFD on X

interferes with the EU's electoral free speech guidelines. I think it's just really important, foot-thumping this point of, we've asked why would the Americans be interested in this alliance? It's also, I think we need to ask why the Europeans are interested in this alliance. And I do think it's access to the attention economy over the social media platforms that these people control, that Elon Musk controls. But it is also...

the legitimacy and the credibility that is imbued by an alliance with a movement that has just won so big in the United States. Right. So that can help explain why the AFD, despite, as you say, having a strong anti-American bent, is...

at least for the moment, seeing how useful it is to have Elon Musk's attention and access to his channels. Can you say just a little bit more about AFD's platform around its anti-Americanism and its pro-Russian position and why it holds

And then there's also the sister who writes, Scott writes, I did a journalism fellowship in Germany in 2023 and met with an AFD member. One thing I noticed, voters are being pushed towards the AFD also because of the pronoun debate and the Green Party pushing green energy conversion, which is expensive for Germans. So maybe you can address those three things, Sophie, in terms of the AFD's platform.

Sure. I mean, so maybe starting with the last point, why are people voting for the AFD? I think one aspect of that is certainly sort of culture and identity wars. I've already mentioned climate activism as one enemy identity for the AFD. Gender debates are another one. Then I think there are real economic problems and inequality in Eastern Germany, whereas that's a strong AFD voter base.

And they're very thinly populated areas and the services there have really contracted. Local shops, local youth clubs have closed, bus services have shrunk down. And there's a sense that, you know, there's no money for the bus, but there is money for welfare benefits for asylum seekers. There is money for supporting Ukraine, right?

And that explains why in a region where there's a very low proportion of foreigners, people still vote in high numbers for the AFD. And then I think a third factor that I just wanna mention, and we've sort of indirectly talked about already, is the fragmentation of German party politics.

the reason that it gets super complicated as soon as we start talking about coalitions and the sort of electoral arithmetic of the German domestic policy landscape is that it is now impossible almost for any party to govern alone. Uh,

will need two parties, maybe sometimes three party coalitions to do that. And that has resulted in a sense that all centrist democratic parties essentially pursue the same policy course throughout COVID or throughout the Ukraine war response. And that the AFD has become in a way the only alternative, it's in their name, the only real opposition. It's who you vote for when you're unhappy with the status quo. So I think that is sort of

to the point of why people are voting for the AFD would be my attempt at an explanation. And then your other question about the parties' US ties and Russia ties,

Yeah, so the party is traditionally anti-American. And we've seen that actually, you know, Steve Bannon in the last Trump administration tried to organize, this has sort of happened before, he tried to organize a movement of European far-right parties. And at the time, there was a real backlash. He didn't go about it very sensitively, I think. And there was a real backlash against the sense of

becoming vassals to America's far right. And they didn't want that because these are, after all, nationalist sovereignty-focused movements. Now I think they're sort of swallowing down their pride in that sense because of the access and the legitimacy that they're gaining. They are traditionally anti-American and traditionally pro-Russian, you know, partly that is down to, as I said before, their strong voter base in Germany's former east, and

They have been very critical of German support of Ukraine.

And they have been very critical of NATO. They have been very susceptible to sort of President Putin's arguments for why he was legitimate in his invasion of Ukraine. And in fact, you can hear President Putin talk about the AFD as his true allies in Germany. So there are stronger ties there. Yes. And Russia has really launched its own disinformation campaign in Germany's election campaign.

At the same time that you're seeing some of those pro-Putin posts amplified on X. And then, of course, as Jen, you were describing some of the other activities of Elon Musk. Listener Chris writes, know your history. Hate legitimized and subsequently codified results in death. Regular people are the ones who suffer and die. These men, Musk, Vance and Trump, are here for the gilded feast to be had by oligarchs.

These far-right activists are just looking for more power. Another listener, Joan, writes, "...as the generation of people who lived through the war and provided first-hand accounts of it are dying, anti-Semitism and other neo-Nazi sentiments will rise, not only in Germany but around the world. In other words, when there are no living reminders, it will fade into history, and the world has proven time and again that we do not learn from history."

And Steve on Discord writes, why is the AFD's very clear Nazi affiliation not utterly anathema in Germany? Jen, I've been seeing reports that Germans are not going to vote for the AFD just because of Elon Musk's interference, you know, an American billionaire basically telling them how great the AFD are and Russia's disinformation campaign per se. But what are the broader dangers of his involvement? Is it mainly just the fact that

you know, as we've seen happen here, what were once sort of anathema or taboo ideas have become somewhat normalized in the US. Is that the concern for what could happen in Germany, Jen? I mean, I think it is sort of concerning and going back to what Sophia said about this kind of broader attack on the European project, which is, you know, if you want to talk about democracy, it's sort of Europe's to decide sort of how it wants to be governed. And I think, again,

With Vance's speech in particular, this sense of as if we weren't listening to the views of the broader public or the public that's voting for the AFD. And to be clear, there is a sense of dissatisfaction there.

across Germany. And speaking also to Sophia's point about a fragmentation in German politics, it's just, it is a dissatisfaction with the mainstream establishment that we've seen across democracies, you know, this year, including in the United States. And you've seen, in addition to sort of the surge of the AFD, you've seen the rise of new parties like the

The BSW, which is sort of a left conservative party that has also glommed on to a lot of the anti-migration, anti-climate policy talking points. Even the left party, which was left for dead in the European elections, has surged with new members, potentially as more mainstream left voters go there. So there is real scrambling of the German political base there.

So I think that's important to keep in mind, too, when we say, you know, why people are voting for the day. Maybe it's not just because they are attracted to far right politics, but have this broader dissatisfaction. And I think, you know, that the AFD is not left out of the political process, though there is this firewall. You know, Alex Feidel participated in the debate with other chancellor candidates. So German publics are getting to see what this party is about. And I think it really comes down to.

You know, for for Vance and Musk, they want to advance this. They want to get prominent. They want to see their kind of ideological twins in power. They feel that that advances their interests, both political and potentially business. And I think that's sort of where we stand right now. Yeah. And Alice Vidal, of course, is the leader of the AFD, the person they put forward.

for their person to serve as chancellor. We're talking about the German elections this Sunday with Jen Kirby, international domestic security reporter, and Sophia Besch of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And we'll have more after the break. I'm Mina Kim.

This is Forum. I'm Mina Kim. We're looking this hour at the rise of a far-right party in Germany as elections are scheduled to be held this Sunday. And we're also talking about the Trump administration's

Members like Vice President J.D. Vance getting involved. Here is J.D. Vance speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. Speaking up and expressing opinions isn't election interference. Even when people express views outside your own country and even when those people are very influential.

And trust me, I say this with all humor, if American democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk. But what German democracy, what no democracy, American, German, or European will survive is telling millions of voters that their thoughts and concerns, their aspirations, their pleas for relief are invalid or unworthy of even being considered.

Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There's no room for firewalls. Listeners, what are your questions about Germany's elections, the AFD and the rise of the far right?

What are your thoughts on musk's advances actions in germany? Do you have ties to germany? What do you think is driving the political shifts? The email address is forum at kqed.org Our social channels are blue sky facebook instagram threads and others at kqed forum And you can call us at eight six six seven three three six seven eight six eight six six seven three three six seven eight six Sophia is it your uh

view that the main governing parties, like Angela Merkel's party, will retain power in these elections and they will maintain the firewall.

Yes, I think so. And at least that's what all of the Democratic Party's candidates have clearly stated, is that they would not enter into a coalition with the AFD at the federal level. So then what kind of influence could the AFD have if they hold, you know, a lot of seats, if their polling ends up being right, even if there is that firewall, Sophia? Yeah.

Yeah, absolutely. So if they are a very strong opposition, they can, of course, vote against some huge projects on the horizon for the next German government that can sort of make or break whether Germany is able, for instance, to pay for the policies that it needs to pay for. There is currently a policy in Germany called

related to our debt ceiling. It's called the debt break. It means that we can't go into debt in order to finance investments to the extent that they're necessary right now. All parties have acknowledged that they're going to need to invest

that they might have to be a reform of the debt break, but they need a two-third majority for that. And if the AFD and a strong opposition can maybe ally with other small parties, they might be able to stop a reform of the debt break. So that is one way in which they can very clearly have an impact on policy, in addition to all the ways that they are shaping the debate and pushing all of the center parties more to the right already.

Stephen writes, Putin said he was trying to de-Nazify Ukraine, yet the AFD, which is a neo-Nazi party, is pro-Russia. How is that contradiction explained? Do you want to take a shot, Sofia? So there is a there's I wouldn't take this claim by President Putin that he wanted to de-Nazify Ukraine all too seriously. I think that relates back to Ukraine.

historical misinterpretation of who was in charge. They're clearly not Nazis in charge in Ukraine right now. And there is an overlapping interest between the AFD and Putin. The AFD acknowledges and accepts Putin's imperialistic views and Putin's views of great powers having spheres of influence.

And the AFD's anti-Americanism has led them to blame NATO for the war in Ukraine and NATO expansionism for the war in Ukraine. So in that sense, they're their favorite partners of Russia. They also want to go back to what was a fairly special and close relationship between Germany and Russia before the wars in Ukraine.

including a very close energy relationship. Germany has cut off all Russian oil and gas. And since then, we've had a huge energy crisis, which is one of the structural factors why German economy is doing so badly. They want to return to buying Russian oil and gas again. So in that sense, also, there are close shared interests.

So, Jen, if the AFD gains seats, a lot of seats in parliament, even if there's a firewall, what will that mean for Germany's support of Ukraine? I mean, essentially, Germany is the second largest weapon supplier and defender of Ukraine after the United States. Or maybe we should be asking the question of whether or not it will Ukraine support and Ukraine's strength and ability to resist any more attacks.

from Russia is dependent more on us than on anything that happens in Germany. But anyway, we'd love to get your thoughts on that, Jen.

Yeah, I mean, I think it's a really important question. And I think a lot will not necessarily, well, a lot of the elections will, what happens in Germany will depend on what the US does. As Sophia was saying before, Berlin in particular has been extraordinarily pro the Western Alliance, transatlantic to its core. And, you know, some critics might argue is kind of slow to wake up to the reality that we're seeing now and not sort of

moving away from the US or helping to empower Europe

in the ways that say at least Macron or the French president Emmanuel Macron tried to do. But I think Friedrich Merz, who seems to be the likely chancellor, he has been pretty strong on Ukraine and also on building up Germany's defense. I think initially he was hopeful, particularly coming from the right, that he might be able to work with Trump and find a way forward. That seems less clear now after the events of this week and

and what looks like Trump's decision to both leave Europe out of negotiations with Russia and leave Ukraine out of negotiations with Russia on the war in Ukraine, and real questions about what the US interests are right now. I mean, in some ways, one thing I'm struggling with as all of this is unfolding is what are US interests now when we say the US or the AFD is anti-NATO and anti-the US and pro-Russia?

I don't know if that seems a bit scrambled right now, given some of the rhetoric out of Washington, D.C.,

and the Trump administration. But I do think, you know, Germany has a real test ahead. This is a real critical moment for Europe, and we do not know how it is going to unfold. But it seems right now that all signs point to the U.S. not necessarily just disengaging with Europe, but potentially working out a deal with Putin that might leave that might leave the

the Europe more vulnerable, including some reports that the administration may withdraw troops from the eastern flank of NATO. And so I think, you know, this is a real test for Germany. And in some ways, all of this discussion around migration,

has sort of obscured the real challenges ahead for the next chancellor and the next government. And I think it's also important to keep in mind that, you know, this may not be the most kind of strong coalition, whatever comes to mind, because it's potential, you know, that one of the coalition partners may be a partner that was just in government. Tensions are very high. So it is a really, really precarious time for Germany. And

I think we will have an answer of who might be the head of the government after Sunday, but we won't necessarily know what that means for Germany and its foreign policy and its stance and its approach to the war in Ukraine. Yeah. Sophia, can I also get your thoughts around that? I'm struck by hearing Jen talk about how, yeah, it is hard to get your mind around Germany.

the fact that we seem to be attacking our allies and drawing closer to Russia. You've got JD Vance snubbing our allies in Europe and

Really, European leaders having to call into question their ability to stand up and say, you know, we will continue our support in defense of democracy with support of Ukraine and not necessarily being able to say with the alliance of the U.S.,

Yeah. I mean, first, I just want to acknowledge and validate that, yes, that is confusing. And I think there is a risk sometimes, you know, I'm a think tanker, I'm an analyst, as is Jen, and we look for rational explanations. And there's a risk sometimes in doing that, that we're sort of rationalizing what maybe shouldn't be rationalized. But that being said, I think

What I heard in that speech that JD Vance gave in Munich was not just an embrace of the German AFD and a scolding of European politicians for shutting out far-right parties. It was really...

a dissolution of the transatlantic community of values. You know, he said, we no longer align with you guys. And the transatlantic alliance was always about more than just security. It was always also a values alliance. And I think that is something that is going to really shake up. It is what we're seeing right now. It's really shaking up the transatlantic relationship. And that goes far beyond just Ukraine.

Celeste writes, "I'm 77 years old and when I grew up America was considered a shiny example to the world. Now Republicans have abdicated all of what we stand for and I believe Putin was part of this movement. Americans need to scream about this. That all of Trump's nominees are being confirmed when they say they have told us they're intending to destroy the government is beyond belief." Another listener, Chris writes, "There is one question worldwide: the survival of democracy.

And Marika writes, "My grandmother was born and raised in Germany. She was in the Hitler Youth, and she not only described but embodied their brainwashing until her death at 96. Propaganda, like the kind of anti-DEI stuff that is impacting education and all of US society now, is laying the groundwork for brainwashing children. It's hard not to see the connections between Germany and the US from a historical and a political point of view.

We're talking with Sophia Besch, Senior Fellow of the Europe Project at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We're also talking with Jen Kirby, an international and domestic security reporter, an independent journalist. And we're talking about Germany's elections this Sunday and why a far-right party, the AFD, seems poised to make gains and how the U.S. is involving itself in this election. There is action by journalists

J.D., Vice President J.D. Vance, and also by Elon Musk. This is a fundraising period for many public radio stations. You are listening to Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Let me go to caller Victor in San Francisco. Hi, Victor, you're on. Oh, hello. Can you hear me okay? I can.

Okay, great. Well, I just wanted to lift up one of your guests' said, which is that not hearing the voices, all the voices, have...

have sort of threatened democracy, including the United States. I am not in favor of the hatred that is being advertised and promoted by this Trump administration and the MAGA

if you will, for lack of a better word. However, I do think, and we have been instructed actually all through the Biden administration to listen to the voice of the unsatisfied in the United States to build

build bridges rather than to break bridges. And so while it pains me greatly to agree with, uh, Vance or the MAGA movement in any way, shape, and form, I do think that what he said in Germany, that, um,

Marginalizing any group is deleterious to democracy. I am a queer person, and I fought to survive in this American culture, which of course is being threatened right now again.

because people didn't see me and didn't hear me. So I am by no means saying that the level of hatred and misogyny and marginalization by the MAGID movement is right or by the AFD is correct. Two lines of my family were eliminated in Nazi Germany. But I do think, and

And again, with great pain, I do think that his point is correct, but I am totally against his policies. Well, Victor, I really appreciate your point, and thank you for sharing your family history as well. It's making me think about the fact that

Sophia, Germany has the ability to ban this party outright because of the laws it's broken around hate speech and so on. But it doesn't, right? Is it in part because of some of the concerns that Victor is raising?

Yes, absolutely. And I am also so glad that we have gotten to those concerns. I sort of tried talking about earlier when I mentioned the very legitimate, some of the very legitimate concerns that are driving German voters to vote for the AFD.

And I do think that there is a real responsibility for the other Democratic parties to ask why that is the case. There is a real humility required right now. And we have, Jen mentioned it earlier, already seen steps taken to prevent

make sure that we include the party in the political process. So for instance, the chancellor candidate for the party was invited to debate the other candidates on national public TV. That is not a given. Again, given that this party is, um,

under surveillance by German domestic intelligence services. And yes, there has been a decision not to restrict or limit the party in any way because we see that 20 to 22% of German voters do espouse their policies. And so I do think there's a real concern

There's a real weakness in a democracy when we have the situation that we have right now in Germany, where it sort of can feel for voters that no matter who they vote for, they get the same parties and they get the same policies espoused by these parties, because everyone is banding together to support this firewall of not going into government with the AFD.

There are some who are calling for, I mean, some democratic parties who are calling for maybe a review of the firewall. And it's sort of a very fine nuance, but they're saying we still shouldn't go into government with the AFD, but we shouldn't outright say that we won't, right? That shouldn't be a policy. It should be the result of negotiations with them. There are some who might take that into consideration going forward, certainly at the regional and state levels where we now have

you know, really strong electoral results from the AFD resulting in these absurd coalitions of the far left with the conservatives in order to shut them out. So it is a real challenge

serious debate and consideration for the other parties to try and find a way of dealing with this. My main recommendation would be to address the real inequalities and policy concerns that these voters have so that not every protest vote against the status quo goes to the AFD.

Well, Adele on Discord writes, the U.S. is flawed, but it's still the shiny beacon of hope in the world. We just need to regroup. In the meantime, Jen, how is Europe regrouping in the face of a potentially hostile U.S.?

I think everyone is very much still trying to figure it out in real time. It really is. It's whiplash, but beyond a degree that is hard to fathom. I mean, when I was at Munich this weekend, I kind of heard everyone say it was a wake-up call, but it feels like the world has changed as people are still trying to get up and

And I think it also to sort of go to Sophia's point about sort of the question of, you know, including these, the far right views and sort of trying to wrap your head around, you know, the US's own policy. We are so used to seeing the US as the quote unquote leader of the free world and having these long standing alliances with, you know, the United States.

Europe and also our neighbors like Canada, for example. And now they seem flipped on the head. And the real question will be, will American voters see these changes and will they respond to these changes or are these things that they want if they want to see these shifts in U.S. foreign policy where Trump really is going against the grain of what American voters want and how they see America in the world?

Jen Kirby and Sophia Besch, thank you both so much for talking with us. We'll be watching those elections this Sunday. Thank you, Caroline Smith, for producing this segment. And thank you, as always, listeners. I'm Mina Kim.

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