Elon Musk Explains New Tesla Cybercab
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Really, I was going to say doubling down on autonomy, but really it's like autonomy is like 10x-ing, frankly. Doubling is not even enough. We made many critical investments in 2024 in manufacturing AI and robotics that will bear immense fruit in the future. Immense. Like it's, in fact, to such a scale that it is difficult to comprehend. And I've said this before, and I'll stand by it.

I see a path. I'm not saying it's an easy path, but I see a path to Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far, not even close, like maybe several times more than... I mean, there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. There's a path to that. I mean, I think it's like an incredibly... It's like a difficult path, but it is an achievable path. So...

And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. So our focus is actually building towards that. And that's what we're laying the groundwork for that in 2024. We'll continue to lay the groundwork for that in 2025. More than lay the groundwork, actually, we'll be building the structure, we're building the manufacturing lines.

I'd like setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous 27 and 28. Ridiculously good. That is my prediction. As yet, very few people understand the value of wholesale driving and our ability to monetize the fleet.

You know, I've said these things for quite a long time, and I know people have said, well, you know, Elon's the boy who cried wolf like several times. But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time. And you can drive it. In fact, it can drive you. It's a self-driving wolf.

For a lot of people, their experience of Tesla autonomy is like, if it's even a year old, if it's even two years old, it's like meeting someone when they're like a toddler and thinking that they're going to be a toddler forever. But obviously they're not going to be a toddler forever if they grow up. But if their last experience was like, oh, FSD was a toddler, it's like, well, it's grown up now. Have you seen it? It's like walks and talks. And

That's really what we've got. And it's difficult for people to understand this because human intuition is linear as opposed to what we're seeing is exponential progress. So that's why my number one recommendation for anyone who doubts is simply try it. Have you tried it? When's the last time you tried it? And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who are skeptical are those who have not tried it.

So, you know, a car goes, a passenger car typically has only about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168, a very small percentage. Once that car is autonomous, my rough estimate is that it is in use for at least a third of the hours of the week, so call it 50, maybe 35 hours of the week. And it can be used for both

Coggle delivery and people delivery. So even let's say people are asleep, but you can deliver packages in the middle of the night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be, whatever people need at all hours of the day or night. That same asset, the thing that these things that already exist with no incremental cost change, just a software update, now have five times or more of the utility that they currently have.

I think this will be the largest asset value increase in human history. Maybe there's something bigger, but I just don't know what it is. And so people who look in the rearview mirror are looking for past precedent, except I don't think there is one. So, you know, the reality of autonomy is upon us. And I repeat my advice, try driving the car or let it drive you.

So, now it works very well in the US, but of course, it will over time work just as well everywhere else. Yeah. So we're working hard to grow our annual volumes. Our constraint this year, our current constraint is battery packs this year, but we're working on addressing that constraint. And I think we will make progress in addressing that constraint. And then

things are really going to go ballistic next year and really ballistic in 27 and 28. So, um, yeah, so a little bit more on full self-driving. Our Q4 vehicle safety report shows continued year-over-year improvement in safety for vehicles. So the safety numbers, if somebody has supervised full self-driving turned on or not, the safety differences are gigantic. So, uh,

And people have seen the immense improvement with version 13 and with incremental versions in version 13. And then version 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that that is very significant. We launched the Cortex training cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant contributor to FSD advancement. And we continue to invest in training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters.

So the training needs for Optimus or Optimus humanoid robot are probably at least ultimately 10x of what's needed for the car, at least to get to the full range of useful roles. How many different roles are there for a humanoid robot versus a car? A humanoid robot has probably, well, a thousand times more uses and more complex things than

in a car that doesn't mean the training scales by a thousand but it's probably you know 10x now you can do this progressively so it doesn't mean like hotels are going to spend like 500 billion dollars in training compute um uh because we will obviously train the optimus to do enough tasks to match the output of optimus robots um but and obviously the cost of training is dropping dramatically with time so

But it is one of those things where I think long-term optimists will be... Optimists has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue. Like, this is really bananas. So that you can obviously afford a lot of training compute in that situation. In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation would be quite a good deal. Yeah. The future is going to be incredibly different from the past. That's for sure. We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history. So...

Yeah, so the proof is in the pudding. So we're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.

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The PC gave us computing power at home, the internet connected us, and mobile let us do it pretty much anywhere. Now generative AI lets us communicate with technology in our own language, using our own senses. But figuring it all out when you're living through it is a totally different story. Welcome to Leading the Shift.

a new podcast from Microsoft Azure. I'm your host, Susan Etlinger. In each episode, leaders will share what they're learning to help you navigate all this change with confidence. Please join us. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. So, in a talk with the team, we feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised, no one in the car, full stop driving in Austin in June. We already have

Tesla's operating autonomously, unsupervised, also driving at our factory in Fremont and will soon be up and doing that at our factory in Texas. So thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them at our Fremont factory in California. They will soon be doing that in Austin and then elsewhere in the world for the rest of our factories, which is pretty cool. And the cars aren't just

driving to exactly the same spot because obviously it all went and collided at the same spot. The cars are actually programmed with what lane they need to park into to be picked up for delivery. So they drive from the factory end of line to their destination parking spot and that could be picked up for delivery to customers.

And they're doing this reliably every day, thousands of times a day. It's pretty cool. Like I said, these Teslas will be in the wild, there's no one in them, in June in Austin.

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