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Tesla's Bold Bet: Robotaxis and Humanoid Workers

2025/1/31
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我讨论了特斯拉在2025年推出机器人出租车和Optimus人形机器人的计划。特斯拉的目标是通过这些项目来彻底改变交通运输和自动化领域。 特斯拉计划在德克萨斯州奥斯汀率先推出无需人工监督的完全自动驾驶(FSD)出租车服务,随后扩展到加州和其他市场。然而,这项计划面临着巨大的监管障碍,尤其是在加州。 机器人出租车将是一款完全自动驾驶的车辆,没有方向盘和踏板,完全依赖于特斯拉的FSD系统。特斯拉计划将机器人出租车整合到其更广泛的自动驾驶生态系统中,允许特斯拉车主在不使用车辆时将其用于拼车服务,从而使车辆成为创收资产。 特斯拉还计划在2025年上半年开始生产更经济实惠的电动汽车,这些汽车将结合现有平台和下一代设计的元素,并在现有装配线上生产。 特斯拉2023年第四季度财报显示,营收略高于去年同期,但低于分析师预期;净利润大幅下降。尽管财务状况放缓,但特斯拉的股价在财报发布后盘后上涨,部分投资者更关注特斯拉的长期项目,如自动驾驶业务和机器人部门。 Optimus人形机器人计划于2025年投入使用,最初将用于特斯拉工厂内部,之后再扩展到更广泛的应用。特斯拉计划明年生产数千台Optimus机器人,目标是让其执行各种任务,包括一些复杂的任务,例如弹钢琴和穿针引线。 Optimus机器人的引入引发了人们对人形机器人在工业环境中作用的质疑。特斯拉押注自动化将提高效率并降低劳动力成本,但机器人能否胜任复杂任务仍存在不确定性。 特斯拉进军机器人领域是其更广泛的AI驱动自动化愿景的一部分。特斯拉正在开发用于自动驾驶汽车和机器人的AI软件。 特斯拉目前的FSD系统仍在审查中,这是一个不断发展的系统,最终将提高安全性,超越人类水平。然而,特斯拉也因其自动驾驶能力的声明而面临监管调查和诉讼。 马斯克坚信特斯拉的FSD技术将决定公司的未来,他认为自动驾驶将改变特斯拉的财务模式,使车辆成为资产而非仅仅是汽车。如果机器人出租车服务成功,车主可以在工作时间将车辆出租,增加收入;如果机器人出租车服务成功,可能会颠覆Uber和Lyft等公司,以及送餐服务。 特斯拉的视觉系统使用摄像头和神经网络来解释现实世界的驾驶状况,这使得其解决方案具有可扩展性,但也带来了准确性和安全性方面的挑战。特斯拉机器人出租车的推出将非常有限,但如果成功,将对行业产生重大影响。Optimus机器人的量产将改变特斯拉,使其不再仅仅是一家汽车制造商。如果特斯拉的项目成功,将使其在自动驾驶交通和工业自动化领域处于领先地位。特斯拉的机器人可能会取代重复性工业岗位。特斯拉能够克服技术、财务和监管方面的障碍。

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Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk podcast. This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla, X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink. I'm your host, Will Walden.

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Next day on Mac.

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So what if Tesla's long-promised self-driving taxis actually hit the streets this year? How will their new humanoid robot fit into the company's future plans? And with Tesla's revenue slowing down a little bit, could these projections be the key to turning things around?

On Wednesday, the company confirmed it intends to roll out its Robotaxi business and begin pilot production of its Optimus robot in 2025, marking a major step in its expansion beyond just electric vehicles. Elon Musk described autonomous ride-hailing as essential to the company's future.

Speaking at an earnings call, he said Tesla is confident it will launch an unsupervised full self-driving FSD service in Austin, Texas as early as June. Now, unlike Tesla's current driver assist system, this version would not require human oversight, making it one of the most ambitious attempts at a fully autonomous ride-hailing service.

Musk also predicted that Tesla's Robotaxi operations would expand to California later this year, with additional markets to follow. However, fully autonomous services face significant regulatory hurdles, especially in states like California, where existing laws require very strict testing and approval processes.

Despite this, Musk's timeline suggests Tesla is pushing ahead aggressively with its self-driving ambitions. Tesla's Robotaxi is an autonomous ride-hailing vehicle designed to operate without a human driver. Unlike conventional cars, it will lack a steering wheel and pedals, making it fully reliant on Tesla's FSD system.

The company plans to integrate the Robotaxi into its broader self-driving ecosystem, offering a service where Tesla owners can deploy their vehicles for ride-sharing when not in use. The concept aligns with Elon's long-standing vision of turning Tesla vehicles into revenue-generating assets, allowing owners of Teslas to earn money by lending their cars to the fleet.

Now the Robotaxi will be based on Tesla's upcoming CyberCab, a purpose-built autonomous vehicle set to enter mass production in 2026. Initial development and deployment will begin in Austin, Texas, with expansions to California and other markets following soon after. Tesla has stated that its FSD system is improving towards exceeding human safety levels.

though the company has faced regulatory scrutiny over its self-driving claims. And if successful, though, the Robotaxi network could significantly disrupt the ride-hailing industry by offering low-cost transportation without the expense of paying humans. Now, beyond autonomous taxis, Tesla's Reformation,

of its commitment to introducing more affordable EVs. The company stated that the production of these lower cost models would begin in the first half of 2025. Rather than using an entirely new manufacturing process, these vehicles will incorporate elements from both Tesla's existing platforms and its next generation designs. They will also be built on the same assembly lines as the company's current models, allowing Tesla to scale production way more efficiently than building its new line.

Tesla's earnings report painted a mixed picture of the company's financial health. The company generated $25.7 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 2% increase from the previous year but short of analysts' expectations of $27.1 billion. Meanwhile, net income fell sharply, dropping 71% to $2.3 billion.

The decline in profitability reflects several challenges, including price cuts on Tesla vehicles and rising competition in the EV market. But despite the financial slowdown, Tesla's stock price rose more than 4% in after-hours trading following the earnings announcements.

Some investors appear more focused on Tesla's long-term projects, such as its full self-driving business and robotics division, than on its recent financial struggles. Analysts have noted that the company's ability to commercialize autonomous technology and robotics could be a deciding factor in its future success.

Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot, another project set for development in 2025, is designed to handle tasks inside Tesla factories before being introduced to broader applications.

Musk said the company plans to produce about several thousand units next year, marking a major step toward automation and Tesla's manufacturing operations. The long-term goal is for Optimus to perform a wide range of tasks, with Musk even suggesting that it could eventually play the piano and get this, thread a needle. I can't even do that. I'm human. It's really hard. If you could do that, leave me a comment in the

the podcast platform that you're on right now. Tell me that you can thread a needle. I know it's, I can do it, but it takes a little time. Now, the introduction of Optimus raises questions about the role of humanoid robots in industrial settings, though. Tesla is betting that automation will increase efficiency and reduce labor costs, but the effectiveness of robots in complex tasks remains uncertain.

If successful, Optimus could expand beyond Tesla's own factories and be marketed to other industries, potentially transforming how repetitive or physically demanding jobs are performed. Now, the company's push into robotics is part of all of Elon and Tesla's broader vision of AI-driven automation. Tesla has been developing AI software not just for self-driving cars, but also for robots that can function in dynamic environments.

Critics have raised concerns about whether Tesla can deliver on its ambitious promises given the complexity of AI-driven robotics. But as we all know, Elon has given us pretty much everything that he's said in the past. His promises, they've been pretty fulfilled. It may be slower than what he said in the beginning, but nonetheless, they're coming to fruition.

And while Tesla continues to develop self-driving and robotics, its current FSD system remains under scrutiny. The company describes the software as an evolving system. It's, I mean, it's software. I'm a software developer. I understand this. You have an alpha, now really pre-alpha, you keep building up and that's why people scrutinize it because they don't understand software development. It's evolving and eventually it'll improve towards ultimately exceeding human levels of safety. However,

Tesla has also faced regulatory investigations and lawsuits over past claims about the capabilities of full self-driving. Elon does like to embellish a little bit. Let's be honest here. If we are a fan of Elon or not, he likes to embellish. And, you know, he usually backs it up. So now the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, NHTSA, has launched multiple probes into crashes involving Tesla vehicles operating under FSD and autopilot modes.

And despite these challenges, Musk has remained steadfast in his belief that Tesla's FSD technology will define the company's future. He has repeatedly argued that autonomy will transform Tesla's financial model, turning its vehicles into assets instead of just cars. Think about this for a second. When you're at work, say if you work in an office, or even if you work at home and you have

Let's just say a normal eight hour shift. You're not going to drive your car for those eight hours. Why not send it out into the fleet? Earn some money from your vehicle while you're stuck in your office. You know, for emergencies, that's not the best thing. But if you're in an office and or wherever you are, if you're going to take a plane ride for a week, you know, if you're going to be out of town for a week, then, of course, use your car so you can make that money back for your trip.

there's a possibility that you could make a little bit extra too. But if the robo taxi service succeeds, it could disrupt Uber. It could disrupt Lyft. Uber Eats could be a thing of the past. All the gig workers out there, instead of going to buy groceries and drive around for Instacart, you might just have to have your Tesla go to the store

And somebody from Instacart or somebody from the store packs up the Tesla, sends it off to the house. Oh, that's going to be the best. Grocery delivery from a Tesla. You just go out there, you open up the car with your phone, with the Instacart app, open up the car with that, and then you get your groceries out of it. There you go.

Totally, totally self-driving and totally hands-off. No human contact. That would be pretty great. Now, Tesla's approach to full self-driving, though, it differs from competitors like Waymo and Cruise, which rely on high-definition maps and LiDAR sensors for navigation. Tesla has a vision-based system. They use cameras and neural networks to interpret real-world driving conditions. They want to make it as human-like as possible.

It's allowed Tesla to develop a scalable solution, but it's also resulted in challenges related to accuracy and safety. But once they figure it out, I think it'll be completely fine. It's much better than most of the other. Basically, the other ones are lane assist at this point. That's pretty much all they are. And full self-driving basically drives your car for you. It's going to be critical in the next few months, though, for Tesla with the rollout of the Robotaxi. It's going to be very limited rollout of Robotaxi, by the way.

But if you're in Austin, Texas, go, go, go get the Tesla app and get a taxi. That'd be really cool. Now, Optimus robot production, thousands on the line, thousands of robots coming off the line, I should say. It's going to be a change for for Tesla. They're not just an automaker anymore, and they haven't been for a long time. Elon even stated something along the lines of if you think Tesla's an automaker.

maker, you're mistaken and you're dumb or something along those lines. I can't remember the exact quote, but he was pretty blunt about it. But their expansion into robotics, robotaxis is a major shift in business for Tesla because remember in the beginning they were a green little electric car startup. That's why we all fell in love with Tesla, right? Nice little

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Nice little car, nice little electric car goes fast, zippy and is a little more green than buying gas. And now look at it. It's grown tremendously. Let me know in the comments, what you think. I want to hear your opinions on this. And if these projects succeed though, they could position Tesla at the forefront of all autonomous transportation and industrial automation as well. Everybody on the line right now is doing, um, industrial work.

like piecework or tasks that are repeated, those people could get replaced by autonomous Tesla robots. So just be warned, people that are out there that are working industrial jobs that are repeatable. I know that big corporations, and this is just AI, and of course Tesla robots are using AI, but AI has replaced

lower to mid-level software developers and a bunch of top tech companies recently. All those developers got fired or moved around. So if you're on the line and you know Tesla robots are coming for your job, just be ready to pivot to something else. Get something started. Get a side hustle. Then from that side hustle, maybe make that into your job. I don't know. Anyway,

That's pretty much it for now, everybody. Tesla can overcome this technological leap, though. The financial hurdles and regulatory hurdles are just that. They're just hurdles. They're regulatory red tape. And Tesla, they're going to roll them out, and it's going to be an amazing future.

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