Will NASA cancel their Moon Rocket?
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Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk podcast. This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla, X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink. I'm your host, Will Walden.

So is NASA about to cancel their gigantic SLS Space Launch System rocket? This is the rocket that's going to send people back to the moon and eventually send people to Mars. It's built on legacy systems from the old space shuttle. And how would that impact Boeing, who is their primary contractor for this? It sounds like they're going to be laying off

hundreds of people because there's a possible cancellation of the SLS rocket. Now, this is a successful rocket. It sent a probe, which is the first capsule that people would be using, around the moon and it came back down to Earth. And there were some problems because it was the first ever flight of this thing, but they're finding solutions for those and they're headed for the second launch in the next few years.

Now, my dude, SpaceX is developing the Starship down in Boca Chica Starbase, Texas, at the tip of Texas on the Gulf of Mexico. And the Starship, even though it does have a few problems and has some iterations that it needs to go through, a lot of iterations that it needs to go to in order to send people back to the moon and to Mars...

There's no reason why NASA should continue building the SLS, in my opinion. Now, that being said, if they cancel the SLS, that would mean that they are, NASA is going to be using SpaceX and probably Blue Origin for some of the Artemis program. For most of the Artemis program, the Starship would be sending people

to orbit. Actually, you know what they could do? And this is a thing that we've talked about numerous times on our space channel on YouTube, Space News Pod. They would send people to orbit in a Falcon 9 rocket where they would rendezvous with a starship. And a starship has to refuel between 10 and 20 times. We're not exactly sure what the number is going to be yet because SpaceX still has to

finish the Starship. It's right now it's in a testing phase and flight eight is coming up in the next month, according to Elon Musk and insiders at SpaceX. So the fact that they already have the capable hardware to send them to orbit is a huge thing. Now, the Starship would be parked in orbit, similar to the space station, but not as high up. And they would rendezvous with a dragon capsule with the Starship. Now, those systems are already there.

So they could use the universal adapter that they already use on the International Space Station to dock with the Starship. So the Dragon capsule would have the adapter on it. So it could dock with a Starship already. So it's already, the hardware is already there for that. Now the Starship, mind you, hasn't made it to orbit yet. Like a full orbit. Hasn't made a full orbit. Hasn't made re-entry.

But also it hasn't made it to the moon yet. But this system wouldn't be the same system as they're testing now. This is the whole new Starship. And the Starship that they would be using would be the lunar variant, which is the HLS, the human landing system. And I want to remind everybody that the Starship is huge. It's around 150 to 200 feet tall. And imagine a 15-story building landing vertically.

on the moon's surface. Is that terrifying to anybody else? I'm not a naysayer. I think SpaceX has done amazing, amazing things for space exploration. And I see this as a way for them to build a space station on the moon with starships. Now, this is a whole other thing. But because the starship is so big, they can use those as temporary space stations.

on the moon or lunar stations, I should say. So what they're going to do, this is the plan. Like we discussed before, rendezvous in orbit with the Dragon. Then the Dragon separates from the Starship and then the Starship makes its way to the moon. Therefore, there's no other systems in place. There's no Boeing capsules, no SLS. It's just two SpaceX rockets. Now, if they can get

a Blue Origin rocket to do the same thing. I believe NASA will contract Blue Origin to do the first part. It's going to take a long time for Blue Origin to get people rated for the rocket. But New Glenn as a possibility could get human rated, but there's no reason why they should do that because Falcon 9 already exists and Falcon Heavy already exists. So it depends on what orbit they want to park a starship in.

But landing a 150-foot tall starship on the moon seems incredibly, incredibly difficult. They're having problems landing it on Earth already. They haven't made it back into orbit or out of orbit back down without destroying the starship. It did land in the Indian Ocean, but it wasn't in good shape. And they don't know how to propulsively land a starship yet.

They're figuring it out and it could take them a few years to do this, could take five, six years to do this. But the reason why they're cutting off Boeing and SLS is because it costs so much money to launch that gigantic NASA rocket every time it's billions of dollars. They've spent roughly $3 billion annually on the rocket and its associated ground systems.

SpaceX, for example, has developed and launched two heavy lift rockets, the Falcon Heavy and the Starship, while Blue Origin has introduced its own competitor, the New Glenn. These private sector rockets, which incorporate reusable technology, are estimated to fly at a fraction of the cost of the SLS, which further undermines its long-term viability.

But there's people that are supporting the SLS. They argue that it provides unmatched capability for crewed deep space missions, particularly in carrying large payloads to the moon and to Mars and beyond. They also contend that the government-backed program like Artemis needs a reliable, dedicated launch vehicle rather than relying solely on commercial providers.

But this argument is losing traction as SpaceX demonstrates their ability to deliver cost-effective, high-performance, gigantic, massive launch systems. Super high power, the most powerful rocket ever. Now, we all know, you and me, everybody listening to this knows that Elon Musk and Trump are buddy-buddy. The Trump administration will move to eliminate the SLS if they do.

And if they move to eliminate the funding in its budget proposal, the final decision will be on Congress.

Now, lawmakers have historically supported the rocket due to its ties to key aerospace contractors and the thousands of jobs it supports across multiple states. However, shifting political priorities and mounting budget pressures could change that calculus. And Donald Trump doesn't just want to go to the moon. He wants to go to Mars. And Elon Musk is the biggest proponent of that on this planet. He started a rocket company in particular to send a plant to Mars to inspire people.

Now, what does Elon have to do with all of this? Well, we all know that Elon talks to Donald Trump regularly. Elon has been in his ear, obviously, about the SLS system, the cost-effectiveness of it. And Elon, of course, he's in charge of Doge. So he could cut the budget if he wants to. At least he can justify the budget cut.

knowing that his company and Blue Origin could save the government money, $3 billion a year on this system, the ground system and the rocket. So the ground systems are everything that launches the rocket. So the water deluge system, all the people on the ground that would be fired, you know, like they'll be terminated. They'll be fired. They won't have jobs. Their families will suffer if all of this happens.

And the SLS has been a jobs program for a lot of states. Hundreds of employees, thousands of jobs will be, they'll be fired because of this. And if they're trying to cut government spending, I can understand that. And these people, some of these people may be shuffled around in the system and

But even if Boeing secures a short-term extension for the SLS program, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. NASA is already exploring alternative pathways for Artemis, including increased reliance on SpaceX. They've contracted SpaceX to develop human landing systems, the Starship. There's a growing interest in leveraging private sector launch capabilities for future lunar missions, too, because they're going to send rovers and they're going to send

all sorts of equipment. And if Blue Origin can, Jeff Bezos' rocket company, can send things to the moon just like SpaceX can at a fraction of the cost of the SLS because they need to build infrastructure up there too. You can't just send people to the moon to live and not have water and shelter and the things that we take for granted down here and food. You can't send people up there without those things. Same to Mars. You can't send people to Mars without all those things. You have to build infrastructure

a year plus of infrastructure for the Martians that will be Martians, the people that live on Mars for over a year, you know, because the, the, uh, gateway back, it takes so long. It's about nine months before a return trip can happen. So they need a reliable commercial partner to build the systems and also send the systems to Mars.

Jeff Bezos has historically talked about people living and working in space. I can say to my new Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra, hey, find a keto-friendly restaurant nearby and text it to Beth and Steve. And it does without me lifting a finger. So I can get in more squats anywhere I can. One, two, three. Will that be cash or credit? Credit.

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And with Blue Origin, he can make that dream come true. He's been talking about it since he was a little boy.

You know, the first thing that he wanted to do instead of Amazon was try to get people to live in work in space. He was trying to find ways to do that before he just happened upon Amazon. He had this idea of like, Hey, why don't we send books through the mail? And it worked. And now he has all the money to build his blue origin company, which is his lifelong dream. So Elon and Jeff Bezos, two of the richest people in the world,

have rocket companies and those commercial rocket companies, they're shaking hands with Donald Trump right now. Both of them, they're both at the inauguration. Big tech was at the inauguration and we know how that works. We all know how the government works. You're buddy, buddy with somebody, you get in their ear. And if you're influential, like Elon Musk, of course, people want to be your friend. They trust you because you have the track record of succeeding. Same with Jeff Bezos.

You're a winner and people want to surround themselves with winners and they want to be on the winning team. So if they know that Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk can produce a product that can send people to the moon and Mars, of course, they're going to get behind them. Of course, Boeing, even though they've been leader in the aerospace industry for decades, the SLS program costs way too much money. It's it takes years to build one rocket.

Elon has flown seven rockets in the time that the SLS rocket has flown one. Now the SLS rocket went to the moon, went around the moon and came back down to earth in the capsule that was on top of the rocket made that, made that trip, not the rocket itself, but the rocket propelled it around the earth or on the moon. Now Starship hasn't made it to orbit. Starship hasn't made it to the moon. Starship hasn't made it out of the earth's gravitational pull. Now,

So using a Starship at this point, canceling SLS and using Starship alone is a little bit tricky considering it might not work. I'm not doubting the engineers of SpaceX. I'm not doubting Elon Musk. I'm just saying there's a possibility that something doesn't work out. They'll probably figure out the engineering of it and the logistics of it. But if something doesn't work out and they throw away the SLS program, it's a...

It's a doomsday scenario for us going back to the earth or back to the moon from earth and to mars But I think spacex can do it unless something dramatically happens that would cancel starship, which I don't see it happening or postponing starship The only thing I can think of is an accident with the ship itself with the last flight When the ship blew up over the indian ocean there were some islands that

were scattered with debris. There were debris like hit cars, hit houses, reportedly. So, and we don't know if those reports were real because they're still investigating. And the FAA has to investigate all that stuff. So if that continues to happen, if they can't figure out the Starship for some reason, then, you know, in that regard, if it keeps having accidents, then they will, you know, FAA will ground the Starship until they figure out what's wrong with it.

And the FAA historically has been on SpaceX's side. No matter what anybody tells you, the FAA is slow to move as it always has been. It's a government agency. They usually are slow to move, but they have been working with SpaceX for 12, 13 years now, and they have the best interest of SpaceX at heart. So they will work with SpaceX to figure out flights and safety and Starship will be able to fly again.

Um, and they will eventually, I believe if this all works out, if the tanker system works out with SpaceX, they'll be able to dock in orbit, refuel, and then send people to the moon and eventually to Mars. And I don't see why in the future SpaceX, and Elon Musk has said this as well, that in a few years when the transfer, uh,

happens, there's a possibility that SpaceX could just launch a starship there. It's harder to stay in orbit than it is to send something to another planet. The physics of it, to stop a rocket, basically stop your momentum and get into the perfect orbit. It's harder to do that than it is to send something to another planet and catch their orbit. Because you can catch their orbit from

You know, there's a little bit more leeway. You should be on track to do it properly, but you have all that time to fix things and going to space. It takes, you know, a couple minutes to get to orbit. So, you know, you have the same amount of time to get into earth's orbit or you have two minutes, two or three minutes to get into earth's orbit, you know, because that propels you so fast.

It takes a little bit longer than that, of course. You know, I'm just saying two or three minutes because that's the flight time of the initial launch. But that's how much thrust you have until you get to orbit. So trying to stop all that, getting to like a certain spot to get into orbit, incredibly difficult. But going flying yourself all the way to Mars takes nine months to get there. So how long that nine months, you have nine months to course, like course correct and recalculate.

So SpaceX can figure out that tanker system, which will take 12 to 20 refuels in orbit and then fly a starship once it's docked in orbit, once they can figure out this orbit thing, once it's docked in orbit, then they can send people to Mars. And I don't even know if the Artemis program is going to be changed from the moon to just focus on Mars.

That's that's still up in the air too right now. It's pretty cemented in then NASA will stay on the moon They'll send people to the moon to live and work on the moon because it's our nearest neighbor And it's it's a good testing ground for all the systems that we would need to get to Mars but the overall huge mission is going to Mars and that's what I

Elon and Jeff Bezos have been working on for their whole lives, basically.

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