Recession watch: How to hedge now
2025/4/9
Goldman Sachs Exchanges
A
Alison Nathan
D
Daan Struyven
Alison Nathan: 当前经济面临衰退风险，投资者应考虑如何对冲投资组合。
Daan Struyven: 黄金和石油是应对经济衰退风险的有效对冲工具。近期黄金价格下跌是由于投资者被迫抛售以满足保证金要求，但这并不改变黄金长期看涨的趋势。黄金是应对美国贸易政策风险、美联储政策风险以及全球投资者对美国资产信任度下降的良好对冲工具。如果美国经济停滞但避免衰退，黄金价格到年底可能上涨10%；如果出现衰退，黄金价格可能上涨到4250美元/盎司。
Daan Struyven: 石油价格预测被大幅下调，原因是经济衰退导致需求下降，而OPEC增产导致供应增加，形成双重打击。如果全球经济放缓，且OPEC维持政策不变，布伦特原油价格到2026年底可能降至40美元/桶以下。OPEC增产是为了提高成员国遵守减产协议的积极性，并抑制美国页岩油产量增长。石油看跌期权是具有吸引力的对冲工具，因为石油价格面临需求冲击和供应冲击的双重压力，且保险成本仍然较低。
Daan Struyven: 投资者对大宗商品市场的参与方式发生了变化，例如，购买石油看跌期权以对冲风险。购买石油看跌期权的投资者主要包括宏观投资者、股票投资者和石油生产商。关税对美国金属市场的影响以及铜价的长期走势，是投资者关注的焦点。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the recent market behavior of gold, particularly its unexpected sell-off during volatile days despite its status as a safe haven asset. The discussion explores the reasons behind this sell-off, focusing on forced selling due to margin calls and the overall bullish long-term outlook for gold as a recession hedge.
- Gold sold off alongside risky assets due to forced selling to meet margin calls.
- Despite recent volatility, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish.
- Gold's positioning is now closer to the historical average, making it an attractive entry point.
- Gold is seen as a hedge against recession risks, particularly those stemming from US trade policy and institutional uncertainty.
- Gold price projections range from $3,300 to $4,250 per troy ounce by year-end, depending on economic scenarios.
Shownotes Transcript