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cover of episode Vol.190 2024失意大公司·全球篇

Vol.190 2024失意大公司·全球篇

2024/12/25
logo of podcast 商业就是这样

商业就是这样

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肖文杰/约小亚:2024年,TikTok在美国面临被禁的危机,原因是美国政府担忧数据安全和内容操纵。尽管TikTok试图上诉,但法院驳回其上诉,认为政府的理由充分。TikTok在短期内难以完成所有权剥离,继续提供服务也面临巨大困难和罚款。虽然老用户日常使用影响不大,但新用户下载和版本更新将受到限制,用户也可能流失。最终结果取决于新总统特朗普的决策。 肖文杰/约小亚:大众汽车在德国工厂发生大规模罢工,抗议公司削减成本的计划,特别是关闭德国本土工厂的计划触及了员工利益和心理防线。大众汽车工会在公司内部拥有巨大影响力,影响了公司的决策。大众汽车业绩下滑,以及对未来预期的下跌,是其求生举措如此坚决的原因。大众汽车自身的问题是其改革措施未能带来预期成效,导致其在欧洲市场出现问题时缺乏容错空间。 肖文杰/约小亚:Northvolt公司未能实现大规模量产动力电池,导致其濒临破产。Northvolt的实际交付量远低于预期,仅达到预期的0.5%。Northvolt面临负面消息不断,订单撤回,大规模亏损,工厂关闭,银行抽贷等问题。Northvolt的失败可能源于其对复杂制造业流程的低估,以及对先决条件的过度依赖。Northvolt的失败也反映了创业中对电化学反应等细节的忽视,导致大规模量产和长期稳定运行的失败。 肖文杰/约小亚:Burberry品牌定位摇摆不定,在提升品牌格调和依赖折扣渠道之间难以平衡。Burberry逆消费者需求调价,赶跑了老顾客,并过度依赖折扣渠道。Burberry面临两难选择:要么进行休克式改革,要么被收购。 肖文杰/约小亚:耐克在2024年经历了业绩下滑、大规模裁员、股价大跌和CEO更迭等一系列事件。耐克2025财年业绩指引下滑,导致股价暴跌。耐克过度依赖D2C业务和经典鞋款,忽视了经销商网络利益和产品创新。耐克的危机不仅是自身原因,也与日益激烈的市场竞争有关。耐克新任CEO将公司战略重心回归运动本身。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is TikTok facing a potential ban in the US, and what are the key reasons behind the government's decision?

TikTok is facing a potential ban in the US due to a bill signed by President Biden on April 24, 2024, which prohibits the operation of apps from countries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The US government requires ByteDance to divest TikTok's US operations to a non-Chinese company by January 19, 2025, or face a ban. The primary reasons for the ban are concerns over data security, as TikTok has access to 170 million US users' data, which could be used for tracking federal employees, espionage, or manipulation of content by the Chinese government.

What led to the massive strike at Volkswagen in 2024, and what were the workers' demands?

The massive strike at Volkswagen in 2024 was triggered by the company's cost-cutting plan, which included closing three German factories, laying off thousands of workers, and reducing salaries. The strike involved around 100,000 workers and was a response to the psychological and financial impact of these measures, especially since Volkswagen had never closed a German factory in its nearly 100-year history. Workers demanded better conditions, and the union proposed a compromise where workers would forgo bonuses for two years in exchange for job security and no factory closures.

Why did Northvolt, a European battery startup, fail to meet its production targets and face bankruptcy?

Northvolt, a European battery startup, failed to meet its production targets due to its inability to scale production effectively. Despite significant investments and high expectations, the company only delivered 78.9 megawatt-hours of batteries in 2023, far below its target of 24 gigawatt-hours. This failure was attributed to the complexity of battery production and a lack of deep understanding of electrochemistry, which led to issues in product design and manufacturing. As a result, Northvolt faced massive losses, order cancellations, and ultimately filed for bankruptcy in 2024.

What challenges is Burberry facing in its attempt to reposition itself as a high-end luxury brand?

Burberry is struggling to reposition itself as a high-end luxury brand due to its reliance on discount channels, which account for 30% of its sales and 60% of its profits. The company's efforts to raise prices and open more luxurious stores have alienated its core customers, who are more sensitive to economic fluctuations. Additionally, Burberry's new CEO, with a background in mid-tier brands like Michael Kors and Coach, may lack the experience needed to elevate the brand's status. The company is now caught between maintaining its current sales channels and pursuing a more upscale image.

What factors contributed to Nike's decline in 2024, and how is the company responding to these challenges?

Nike's decline in 2024 was driven by a combination of internal and external factors. Internally, the company overemphasized direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales and relied heavily on classic sneaker lines like Dunk and Air Jordan, which led to a lack of innovation and alienated its retail partners. Externally, Nike faced increased competition from emerging brands like On Running, Hoka, and New Balance, which collectively eroded its market share. In response, Nike's new CEO, a long-time company veteran, has refocused on core sports products and announced plans to close its NFT-based virtual sneaker brand, RTFKT, to prioritize real-world footwear and apparel.

What is the significance of OpenAI's shift from a non-profit to a for-profit model, and what challenges does it face?

OpenAI's shift from a non-profit to a for-profit model in 2024 reflects the growing tension between its original mission of advancing AI for the public good and the need for commercialization to sustain its operations. This transition has led to internal conflicts, with several key executives and board members leaving the company. Additionally, OpenAI faces legal challenges from co-founder Elon Musk, who accuses the company of monopolistic practices. Despite its strong financial performance, with projected revenues of $37 billion in 2024, OpenAI's governance and mission alignment remain contentious issues.

Chapters
本节讨论了2024年TikTok在美国面临的禁令危机,分析了禁令背后的原因、TikTok的应对措施以及新总统上任后的潜在影响。
  • 美国总统拜登签署法案禁止TikTok等应用程序在美国运营
  • TikTok面临数据安全和内容操纵风险
  • TikTok被驳回上诉,面临被禁的风险
  • 新总统特朗普的态度将对TikTok的未来产生关键影响

Shownotes Transcript

本期是《商业就是这样》“2024年终大盘点季”的第三期——2024失意大公司·全球篇。 我们照例选取了五家公司展开叙述它们在2024年的失意。我们在选择这五家公司的时候遇到了不小的挑战,原因不是失意的公司太少,而是失意的公司太多,以至于一些代表性的公司此前我们已经在节目中展开聊过。再过一段时间回看2024年,我们可能会将其视为商业史上的一个重要节点,有的传奇在这一年落幕,有的落幕则可能改变人类社会。 | 主播 |** 肖文杰、约小亚 | 时间轴 |** 01:30 TikTok的危机与转机 05:43 留给大众的时间 11:24 Northvolt:攒局的寓言 18:16 Burberry该选哪条路? 21:51 耐克逆水行舟 28:49 波音、OpenAI、星巴克、三星 | 延伸资料 |** 商业漫谈Jane's Talk-TikTok在美败诉,特朗普说要救TikTok,能信吗?|聊聊庭审细节和判决书 WSJ-TikTok Isn’t Going Away—at Least Not Yet. Here’s What to Know. The TikTok Law and the Foreign Influence** 第一财经 - 10万工人大罢工后,大众汽车CEO与工人谈判时发生冲突** ACEA - 2024年前11个月欧洲新车注册量数据** 《第一财经》杂志 - 手握500亿美元的Northvolt,究竟是何方神圣?** In Good Company** by Norges Bank Investment Management - Robin Zeng, Founder and CEO of CATL Guardian - ‘Huge losses’: Sweden fears for future of batterymaker Northvolt Sifted - From pioneer to bankruptcy: The rise and fall of Northvolt** WSJ-Luxury Brands Have a Strict Hierarchy. Burberry Found Out the Hard Way 《Vol.154 卖不掉的奢侈品去哪了?》** 《Vol.138 谁还在买轻奢》** Nytimes-OpenAI Is Growing Fast and Burning Through Piles of Money Forbes-The Prompt: OpenAI’s Legal Battle With Musk Heats Up BOF - Nike’s Declining Brand Heat, in Five Charts Sneakerfreaker - 球鞋爱好者角度分析耐克的危机** 《Vol.172 紧急放送:星巴克“棘手的遗产”》** Cinnamon, Sharpies, and the 1990s: Brian Niccol’s plan to save Starbucks** | 后期制作 |** 秋秋 | 声音设计 |** 刘三菜 | 收听方式 |** 你可以通过小宇宙、苹果播客、Spotify、喜马拉雅、网易云音乐、QQ 音乐、荔枝、豆瓣等平台收听节目。 | 认识我们 |** 微信公众号:第一财经 YiMagazine 联系我们:[email protected]